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Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, and the Path to AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #56

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{'title': 'Judea Pearl: Causal Reasoning, Counterfactuals, and the Path to AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #56', 'heatmap': [{'end': 259.595, 'start': 198.162, 'weight': 1}], 'summary': "Judea pearl's work in ai and causality is highlighted, including the promotion of the podcast and cash app's support for charity. the chapters cover descartes' analytic geometry, deterministic and stochastic nature of the universe, causality in research, counterfactual reasoning, metaphorical reasoning, machine learning, and ethical ai development, as well as religion's impact on society and robotics.", 'chapters': [{'end': 196.662, 'segs': [{'end': 31.964, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 0.089, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 2.75, 'text': 'The following is a conversation with Judea Pearl,', 'start': 0.089, 'duration': 2.661}, {'end': 9.891, 'text': "a professor at UCLA and a winner of the Turing Award that's generally recognized as the Nobel Prize of Computing.", 'start': 2.75, 'duration': 7.141}, {'end': 16.053, 'text': "He's one of the seminal figures in the field of artificial intelligence, computer science, and statistics.", 'start': 10.771, 'duration': 5.282}, {'end': 25.395, 'text': 'He has developed and championed probabilistic approaches to AI, including Bayesian networks, and profound ideas in causality in general.', 'start': 16.793, 'duration': 8.602}, {'end': 31.964, 'text': 'These ideas are important not just to AI, but to our understanding and practice of science.', 'start': 26.138, 'duration': 5.826}], 'summary': 'Judea pearl, a turing award winner, has made significant contributions to ai, advocating for probabilistic approaches and causality in science.', 'duration': 31.875, 'max_score': 0.089, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic89.jpg'}, {'end': 112.608, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 83.956, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 88.998, 'text': "quotes and science, tech and philosophy that you find interesting, and I'll read them on this podcast.", 'start': 83.956, 'duration': 5.042}, {'end': 95.24, 'text': "I won't call out names, but I love comments with kindness and thoughtfulness in them, so I thought I'd share them with you.", 'start': 89.598, 'duration': 5.642}, {'end': 100.042, 'text': 'Someone on YouTube highlighted a quote from the conversation with Noam Chomsky,', 'start': 95.821, 'duration': 4.221}, {'end': 103.924, 'text': 'where he said that the significance of your life is something you create.', 'start': 100.042, 'duration': 3.882}, {'end': 105.945, 'text': 'I like this line as well.', 'start': 104.824, 'duration': 1.121}, {'end': 112.608, 'text': 'On most days, the existentialist approach to life is one I find liberating and fulfilling.', 'start': 106.645, 'duration': 5.963}], 'summary': "Podcast features quotes from noam chomsky on creating one's significance in life.", 'duration': 28.652, 'max_score': 83.956, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic83956.jpg'}, {'end': 205.203, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 171.783, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 175.025, 'text': 'which means the donated money is used to the maximum effectiveness.', 'start': 171.783, 'duration': 3.242}, {'end': 185.84, 'text': "When you get Cash App from the App Store, Google Play and use code LexPodcast, you'll get $10, and Cash App will also donate $10 to FIRST, which,", 'start': 175.998, 'duration': 9.842}, {'end': 191.961, 'text': "again, is an organization that I've personally seen inspire girls and boys to dream of engineering a better world.", 'start': 185.84, 'duration': 6.121}, {'end': 196.662, 'text': "And now, here's my conversation with Judea Pearl.", 'start': 192.861, 'duration': 3.801}, {'end': 205.203, 'text': 'You mentioned in an interview that science is not a collection of facts by a constant human struggle with the mysteries of nature.', 'start': 198.162, 'duration': 7.041}], 'summary': 'Using code lexpodcast on cash app donates $10 to first, inspiring kids in engineering.', 'duration': 33.42, 'max_score': 171.783, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic171783.jpg'}], 'start': 0.089, 'title': 'Ai, causality, and charity support', 'summary': "Highlights judea pearl's work in ai and causality, discusses promoting the podcast, engaging the audience, and incorporating ads, and explores cash app's support for charity by donating $10 for every use of the code lexpodcast.", 'chapters': [{'end': 59.486, 'start': 0.089, 'title': 'Judea pearl: ai and causality', 'summary': "Highlights judea pearl's seminal work in ai and causality, emphasizing his development of probabilistic approaches, including bayesian networks, and the significance of causality in building truly intelligent systems.", 'duration': 59.397, 'highlights': ['Judea Pearl is a seminal figure in the field of artificial intelligence, computer science, and statistics.', 'He has developed and championed probabilistic approaches to AI, including Bayesian networks.', 'The idea of causality, cause and effect, is considered core to what is currently missing in building truly intelligent systems.']}, {'end': 126.836, 'start': 60.466, 'title': 'Ai podcast interaction and content', 'summary': "Discusses promoting the podcast on various platforms, encouraging audience engagement, and the approach to incorporating ads, with a highlight on noam chomsky's quote about creating significance in life.", 'duration': 66.37, 'highlights': ["Noam Chomsky's quote about creating significance in life is highlighted by a listener on YouTube, emphasizing the existentialist approach to life (1 mention).", 'The podcast host encourages audience interaction by asking for reviews on Apple Podcasts and other platforms, as well as engaging with the audience on Twitter and through Patreon (1 mention).', 'The host discusses the approach to incorporating ads, ensuring they are placed at the end of the introduction and never in the middle of the conversation to maintain a smooth listening experience (1 mention).']}, {'end': 196.662, 'start': 128.324, 'title': 'Cash app: finance app and charity support', 'summary': 'Discusses how cash app, the number one finance app in the app store, is supporting first robotics and lego competitions by donating $10 for every use of the code lexpodcast.', 'duration': 68.338, 'highlights': ['Cash App is the number one finance app in the App Store, and it offers features like sending money to friends, buying, selling, and depositing Bitcoin, as well as a new investing feature allowing users to buy fractions of a stock.', "Cash App is donating $10 to FIRST for every new user who downloads the app from the App Store or Google Play and uses the code LexPodcast, showing support for the organization's educational and inspirational efforts in over 110 countries.", 'FIRST, known for their robotics and Lego competitions, educates and inspires hundreds of thousands of students in over 110 countries and has a perfect rating on Charity Navigator, ensuring maximum effectiveness of donated money.']}], 'duration': 196.573, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic89.jpg', 'highlights': ['Judea Pearl is a seminal figure in AI, computer science, and statistics.', "Noam Chomsky's quote about creating significance in life is highlighted by a listener on YouTube.", 'Cash App is donating $10 to FIRST for every new user who downloads the app and uses the code LexPodcast.']}, {'end': 560.34, 'segs': [{'end': 259.595, 'src': 'heatmap', 'start': 198.162, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 205.203, 'text': 'You mentioned in an interview that science is not a collection of facts by a constant human struggle with the mysteries of nature.', 'start': 198.162, 'duration': 7.041}, {'end': 213.206, 'text': "What was the first mystery that you can recall that hooked you, that captivated you? Oh, the first mystery, that's a good one.", 'start': 206.701, 'duration': 6.505}, {'end': 215.948, 'text': 'Yeah, I remember that.', 'start': 214.487, 'duration': 1.461}, {'end': 225.476, 'text': "What was it? I had a fever for three days when I learned about Descartes' analytic geometry.", 'start': 217.83, 'duration': 7.646}, {'end': 231.601, 'text': 'And I found out that you can do all the construction in geometry using algebra.', 'start': 227.117, 'duration': 4.484}, {'end': 234.328, 'text': "And I couldn't get over it.", 'start': 233.007, 'duration': 1.321}, {'end': 236.108, 'text': "I simply couldn't get out of bed.", 'start': 234.588, 'duration': 1.52}, {'end': 245.332, 'text': 'I So what kind of world does analytic geometry unlock? Well, it connects algebra with geometry.', 'start': 236.128, 'duration': 9.204}, {'end': 259.595, 'text': 'Okay, so Descartes had the idea that geometrical construction and geometrical theorems and assumptions can be articulated in the language of algebra,', 'start': 247.432, 'duration': 12.163}], 'summary': "Fever for 3 days over descartes' analytic geometry connecting algebra and geometry.", 'duration': 61.433, 'max_score': 198.162, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic198162.jpg'}, {'end': 259.595, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 227.117, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 231.601, 'text': 'And I found out that you can do all the construction in geometry using algebra.', 'start': 227.117, 'duration': 4.484}, {'end': 234.328, 'text': "And I couldn't get over it.", 'start': 233.007, 'duration': 1.321}, {'end': 236.108, 'text': "I simply couldn't get out of bed.", 'start': 234.588, 'duration': 1.52}, {'end': 245.332, 'text': 'I So what kind of world does analytic geometry unlock? Well, it connects algebra with geometry.', 'start': 236.128, 'duration': 9.204}, {'end': 259.595, 'text': 'Okay, so Descartes had the idea that geometrical construction and geometrical theorems and assumptions can be articulated in the language of algebra,', 'start': 247.432, 'duration': 12.163}], 'summary': 'Analytic geometry connects algebra with geometry, enabling construction and articulation of theorems.', 'duration': 32.478, 'max_score': 227.117, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic227117.jpg'}, {'end': 326.807, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 293.093, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 294.014, 'text': 'Languages Yeah.', 'start': 293.093, 'duration': 0.921}, {'end': 299.479, 'text': 'So which mathematic discipline is most beautiful? Is geometry it for you? Both are beautiful.', 'start': 294.455, 'duration': 5.024}, {'end': 301.76, 'text': 'They have almost the same power.', 'start': 299.519, 'duration': 2.241}, {'end': 304.783, 'text': "but there's a visual element to geometry.", 'start': 302.461, 'duration': 2.322}, {'end': 314.173, 'text': "Visually, it's more transparent, but once you get over to algebra, then a linear equation is a straight line.", 'start': 305.044, 'duration': 9.129}, {'end': 316.796, 'text': 'This translation is easily absorbed.', 'start': 314.493, 'duration': 2.303}, {'end': 326.807, 'text': 'And to pass a tangent to a circle, you know, you have the basic theorems and you can do it with algebra.', 'start': 318.357, 'duration': 8.45}], 'summary': "Geometry and algebra have similar power, but geometry's visual element makes it more transparent.", 'duration': 33.714, 'max_score': 293.093, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic293093.jpg'}, {'end': 377.179, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 351.564, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 358.429, 'text': 'You know, a little bit of engineering and then, you know, done a little bit of mathematics here and there.', 'start': 351.564, 'duration': 6.865}, {'end': 359.63, 'text': 'Not a little bit.', 'start': 358.849, 'duration': 0.781}, {'end': 366.213, 'text': 'I mean, we got a very solid background in mathematics because our teachers were geniuses.', 'start': 359.67, 'duration': 6.543}, {'end': 371.016, 'text': 'Our teachers came from Germany in the 1930s, running away from Hitler.', 'start': 367.154, 'duration': 3.862}, {'end': 377.179, 'text': 'They left their careers in Heidelberg and Berlin and came to teach high school in Israel.', 'start': 372.317, 'duration': 4.862}], 'summary': 'Teachers from germany fleeing hitler brought solid math background to israel.', 'duration': 25.615, 'max_score': 351.564, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic351564.jpg'}, {'end': 475.934, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 440.786, 'weight': 4, 'content': [{'end': 450.991, 'text': 'And then I moved here for graduate work, and I did engineering in addition to physics in Rutgers.', 'start': 440.786, 'duration': 10.205}, {'end': 458.955, 'text': 'And it combined very nicely with my thesis, which I did in RCA Laboratories in superconductivity.', 'start': 452.151, 'duration': 6.804}, {'end': 468.632, 'text': 'and then somehow thought to switch to almost computer science software.', 'start': 460.509, 'duration': 8.123}, {'end': 475.934, 'text': 'not switch, but long to get into software engineering, a little bit programming, if you can call it that, in the 70s.', 'start': 468.632, 'duration': 7.302}], 'summary': 'Graduated in engineering and physics, did thesis in superconductivity, transitioned to software engineering in the 70s.', 'duration': 35.148, 'max_score': 440.786, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic440786.jpg'}, {'end': 560.34, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 529.116, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 537.239, 'text': "Right, I didn't know about it, but the physicists picked up on my thesis, on my PhD thesis,", 'start': 529.116, 'duration': 8.123}, {'end': 546.463, 'text': 'and it became popular when thin-film superconductors became important for high-temperature superconductors.', 'start': 537.239, 'duration': 9.224}, {'end': 550.345, 'text': 'So they called it pearl vortex without my knowledge.', 'start': 547.023, 'duration': 3.322}, {'end': 553.506, 'text': 'I discovered it only about 15 years ago.', 'start': 550.865, 'duration': 2.641}, {'end': 557.519, 'text': 'you have footprints in all of the sciences.', 'start': 554.858, 'duration': 2.661}, {'end': 560.34, 'text': "So let's talk about the universe a little bit.", 'start': 557.579, 'duration': 2.761}], 'summary': "Physicists popularized 'pearl vortex' from phd thesis; discovered 15 years ago.", 'duration': 31.224, 'max_score': 529.116, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic529116.jpg'}], 'start': 198.162, 'title': "Descartes' analytic geometry and mathematical discoveries", 'summary': "Delves into the captivating mystery of descartes' analytic geometry, connecting algebra with geometry, and reveals the power of mathematical disciplines. it also explores the influence of teachers who fled from hitler and the discovery of phenomena in superconductivity, including the pearl vortex, providing insights into the transition to software engineering in the 70s.", 'chapters': [{'end': 316.796, 'start': 198.162, 'title': 'Mystery of analytic geometry', 'summary': "Discusses the captivating mystery of descartes' analytic geometry, connecting algebra with geometry and revealing the power of mathematical disciplines, leading to a traumatic yet transformative experience.", 'duration': 118.634, 'highlights': ["Descartes' analytic geometry revealing the connection between algebra and geometry, leading to a transformative experience.", 'The power and beauty of both geometry and algebra, with the visual element of geometry and the straightforward translation to algebra.']}, {'end': 560.34, 'start': 318.357, 'title': 'Engineering, mathematics, and discoveries', 'summary': 'Explores the journey of an individual through engineering and mathematics education, the influence of teachers who fled from hitler, and the discovery of phenomena in superconductivity, including the pearl vortex, with a glimpse into the transition to software engineering in the 70s.', 'duration': 241.983, 'highlights': ["The individual's education in mathematics was influenced by teachers who fled from Hitler in the 1930s, providing a chronological approach that connected math exercises with historical context.", 'The individual pursued engineering and physics at the university level, later focusing on superconductivity and the discovery of phenomena such as the pearl vortex, which became popular in thin-film superconductors.', "The transition to software engineering in the 70s marked a shift in the individual's career, indicating a diverse exploration of disciplines and a significant contribution to the field of computer science."]}], 'duration': 362.178, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic198162.jpg', 'highlights': ["Descartes' analytic geometry reveals the connection between algebra and geometry, leading to a transformative experience.", 'The power and beauty of both geometry and algebra, with the visual element of geometry and the straightforward translation to algebra.', "The individual's education in mathematics was influenced by teachers who fled from Hitler in the 1930s, providing a chronological approach that connected math exercises with historical context.", 'The individual pursued engineering and physics at the university level, later focusing on superconductivity and the discovery of phenomena such as the pearl vortex, which became popular in thin-film superconductors.', "The transition to software engineering in the 70s marked a shift in the individual's career, indicating a diverse exploration of disciplines and a significant contribution to the field of computer science."]}, {'end': 1149.685, 'segs': [{'end': 588.944, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 561.06, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 567.222, 'text': 'Is the universe at the lowest level, deterministic or stochastic, in your amateur philosophy view?', 'start': 561.06, 'duration': 6.162}, {'end': 569.163, 'text': 'Put another way, does God play dice??', 'start': 567.422, 'duration': 1.741}, {'end': 572.944, 'text': 'Well, we know it is stochastic, right?', 'start': 569.383, 'duration': 3.561}, {'end': 575.245, 'text': 'Today. today we think it is stochastic.', 'start': 572.984, 'duration': 2.261}, {'end': 584.428, 'text': 'Yes We think because we have the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and we have some experiments to confirm that.', 'start': 575.285, 'duration': 9.143}, {'end': 587.884, 'text': 'All we have is experiments to confirm it.', 'start': 585.822, 'duration': 2.062}, {'end': 588.944, 'text': "We don't understand why.", 'start': 587.964, 'duration': 0.98}], 'summary': 'The universe is currently believed to be stochastic due to the heisenberg uncertainty principle and experiments.', 'duration': 27.884, 'max_score': 561.06, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic561060.jpg'}, {'end': 694.764, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 672.696, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 683.026, 'text': "It communicates with other machines as though they have free will and you wouldn't be able to tell the difference between a machine that does and a machine that doesn't have free will.", 'start': 672.696, 'duration': 10.33}, {'end': 688.737, 'text': 'So the illusion, it propagates the illusion of free will amongst the other machines.', 'start': 684.813, 'duration': 3.924}, {'end': 691.601, 'text': 'And faking it is having it.', 'start': 689.058, 'duration': 2.543}, {'end': 694.764, 'text': "Okay, that's what Turing test is all about.", 'start': 692.822, 'duration': 1.942}], 'summary': 'Machines communicate as if they have free will, propagating the illusion; turing test assesses this.', 'duration': 22.068, 'max_score': 672.696, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic672696.jpg'}, {'end': 789.093, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 732.903, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 734.004, 'text': 'What is probability??', 'start': 732.903, 'duration': 1.101}, {'end': 741.438, 'text': "It's the degree of uncertainty that an agent has about the world.", 'start': 736.954, 'duration': 4.484}, {'end': 744.721, 'text': "You're still expressing some knowledge in that statement.", 'start': 741.458, 'duration': 3.263}, {'end': 745.362, 'text': 'Of course.', 'start': 744.741, 'duration': 0.621}, {'end': 752.464, 'text': "If the probability is 90%, it's absolutely a different kind of knowledge than if it is 10%.", 'start': 746.123, 'duration': 6.341}, {'end': 755.527, 'text': "but it's still not solid knowledge.", 'start': 752.464, 'duration': 3.063}, {'end': 757.189, 'text': 'It is solid knowledge.', 'start': 755.748, 'duration': 1.441}, {'end': 771.344, 'text': "If you tell me that 90% assurance smoking will give you lung cancer in five years versus 10%, it's a piece of useful knowledge.", 'start': 758.611, 'duration': 12.733}, {'end': 782.008, 'text': "So the statistical view of the universe, why is it useful? So we're swimming in complete uncertainty, most of everything around us.", 'start': 772.481, 'duration': 9.527}, {'end': 789.093, 'text': 'It allows you to predict things with a certain probability, and computing those probabilities are very useful.', 'start': 782.028, 'duration': 7.065}], 'summary': 'Probability quantifies uncertainty, enabling useful predictions and knowledge based on statistical views of the universe.', 'duration': 56.19, 'max_score': 732.903, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic732903.jpg'}, {'end': 961.41, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 925.539, 'weight': 4, 'content': [{'end': 940.846, 'text': 'if I have two coins which are uncorrelated and I choose only those flippings experiments in which a bell rings and the bell rings when at least one of them is a tail,', 'start': 925.539, 'duration': 15.307}, {'end': 948.07, 'text': 'then suddenly I see correlation between the two coins, because I only look at the cases where the bell rang.', 'start': 940.846, 'duration': 7.224}, {'end': 961.41, 'text': 'You see, with my design, with my ignorance, essentially with my audacity to ignore certain incidents,', 'start': 949.301, 'duration': 12.109}], 'summary': 'Choosing only cases where a bell rings reveals correlation between uncorrelated coins.', 'duration': 35.871, 'max_score': 925.539, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic925539.jpg'}, {'end': 1055.358, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1023.572, 'weight': 5, 'content': [{'end': 1025.213, 'text': "They don't know anything about it.", 'start': 1023.572, 'duration': 1.641}, {'end': 1032.369, 'text': "Well, there's disciplines like psychology where all the variables are hard to account for.", 'start': 1027.364, 'duration': 5.005}, {'end': 1036.835, 'text': "And so oftentimes there's a leap between correlation to causation.", 'start': 1032.93, 'duration': 3.905}, {'end': 1038.977, 'text': "You're imposing..", 'start': 1037.656, 'duration': 1.321}, {'end': 1039.778, 'text': 'What do you mean?', 'start': 1038.977, 'duration': 0.801}, {'end': 1041.3, 'text': 'a leap?', 'start': 1039.778, 'duration': 1.522}, {'end': 1044.223, 'text': 'Who is trying to get causation from correlation?', 'start': 1041.339, 'duration': 2.884}, {'end': 1055.358, 'text': "You're not proving causation, but you're sort of discussing it, implying sort of hypothesizing without ability to prove.", 'start': 1046.653, 'duration': 8.705}], 'summary': 'Challenges in psychology: difficulty accounting for variables, caution in inferring causation from correlation.', 'duration': 31.786, 'max_score': 1023.572, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic1023572.jpg'}], 'start': 561.06, 'title': 'Understanding universe and intelligence', 'summary': 'Delves into deterministic and stochastic nature of the universe, focusing on quantum mechanics and the illusion of free will in ai, emphasizing the heisenberg uncertainty principle and the propagation of the illusion of free will amongst machines. it discusses the concept of probability, prediction, correlation, and causation in intelligence, emphasizing their roles and limitations. the impact of selective observation on creating correlations and the limitation of inferring causation from correlation are also explored.', 'chapters': [{'end': 694.764, 'start': 561.06, 'title': 'Determinism vs. stochastic universe', 'summary': 'Discusses the deterministic and stochastic nature of the universe, focusing on quantum mechanics and the illusion of free will in ai, with an emphasis on the heisenberg uncertainty principle and the propagation of the illusion of free will amongst machines.', 'duration': 133.704, 'highlights': ['The universe is considered stochastic due to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and confirmed experiments. The chapter emphasizes the stochastic nature of the universe, supported by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and experimental confirmation.', 'The deterministic world is discussed, with a focus on microscopic phenomena being deterministic to a first approximation. The concept of a deterministic world is explored, particularly emphasizing that microscopic phenomena are deterministic to a first approximation.', 'The discussion on the illusion of free will in AI and the potential for machines to propagate this illusion through communication, likening it to the Turing test. The illusion of free will in AI and the potential for machines to propagate this illusion through communication, as well as the comparison to the Turing test, are highlighted.']}, {'end': 899.07, 'start': 695.285, 'title': 'Probability and causation in intelligence', 'summary': 'Discusses the concept of probability, emphasizing its role in expressing uncertainty and providing useful knowledge, highlighting the importance of prediction and the correlation between events, and delving into the relationship between correlation and causation.', 'duration': 203.785, 'highlights': ['Probability is the degree of uncertainty that an agent has about the world, with different probabilities representing varying levels of knowledge, such as the 90% assurance of smoking causing lung cancer in five years versus 10% (quantifiable data).', 'The statistical view of the universe allows for the prediction of events with a certain probability, enabling survival in the face of complete uncertainty (key point).', 'Correlation occurs when two things vary together over a very long time, and it usually implies a causal relationship, highlighting the underlying notion of causation in our intuition (key point).', 'Conditional probability is distinct from causation, representing the likelihood of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred, thus differentiating it from the concept of causation (key point).']}, {'end': 1149.685, 'start': 899.07, 'title': 'Correlation and causation in observing the world', 'summary': 'Discusses the impact of selective observation on creating correlations and the limitation of inferring causation from correlation, citing examples from psychology and statistical knowledge.', 'duration': 250.615, 'highlights': ["Selective observation can create correlations where they don't exist physically, as demonstrated by the example of observing the correlation between two uncorrelated coins when only cases where a bell rings are considered. Demonstration of creating correlation through selective observation.", 'The limitations of inferring causation from correlation are highlighted, with the majority of science being based on naive science that imposes causal logic on correlation, as acknowledged by statisticians. Limitation of inferring causation from correlation, acknowledgment by statisticians.', 'The discussion on psychology emphasizes the leap from correlation to causation and the challenges of studying human behavior, particularly in the context of semi-autonomous vehicles. Challenges in studying human behavior, particularly in semi-autonomous vehicles.']}], 'duration': 588.625, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic561060.jpg', 'highlights': ['The universe is considered stochastic due to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and confirmed experiments.', 'Probability is the degree of uncertainty that an agent has about the world, with different probabilities representing varying levels of knowledge, such as the 90% assurance of smoking causing lung cancer in five years versus 10% (quantifiable data).', 'The illusion of free will in AI and the potential for machines to propagate this illusion through communication, as well as the comparison to the Turing test, are highlighted.', 'The statistical view of the universe allows for the prediction of events with a certain probability, enabling survival in the face of complete uncertainty (key point).', "Selective observation can create correlations where they don't exist physically, as demonstrated by the example of observing the correlation between two uncorrelated coins when only cases where a bell rings are considered. Demonstration of creating correlation through selective observation.", 'The limitations of inferring causation from correlation are highlighted, with the majority of science being based on naive science that imposes causal logic on correlation, as acknowledged by statisticians. Limitation of inferring causation from correlation, acknowledgment by statisticians.']}, {'end': 2373.06, 'segs': [{'end': 1338.038, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1304.592, 'weight': 4, 'content': [{'end': 1312.76, 'text': 'that the task of discovering causes was in the mind of ancient people from many, many years ago.', 'start': 1304.592, 'duration': 8.168}, {'end': 1318.626, 'text': 'But the mathematics of doing that was only developed in the 1920s.', 'start': 1313.541, 'duration': 5.085}, {'end': 1324.75, 'text': 'So science has left us orphaned.', 'start': 1320.527, 'duration': 4.223}, {'end': 1334.256, 'text': 'Science has not provided us with the mathematics to capture the idea of X causes Y and Y does not cause X.', 'start': 1325.17, 'duration': 9.086}, {'end': 1338.038, 'text': 'Because all the equations of physics are symmetrical, algebraic.', 'start': 1334.256, 'duration': 3.782}], 'summary': 'Ancient people sought causes; math for it developed in 1920s, leaving science without asymmetrical equations.', 'duration': 33.446, 'max_score': 1304.592, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic1304592.jpg'}, {'end': 1418.405, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1393.131, 'weight': 7, 'content': [{'end': 1403.781, 'text': "You've invented Bayesian networks that look awfully a lot like they express something like causation, but they don't, not necessarily.", 'start': 1393.131, 'duration': 10.65}, {'end': 1410.783, 'text': 'So how do we turn Bayesian networks into expressing causation?', 'start': 1405.382, 'duration': 5.401}, {'end': 1412.584, 'text': 'How do we build causal networks?', 'start': 1410.823, 'duration': 1.761}, {'end': 1415.104, 'text': 'This A causes B.', 'start': 1413.284, 'duration': 1.82}, {'end': 1416.484, 'text': 'B causes C.', 'start': 1415.104, 'duration': 1.38}, {'end': 1418.405, 'text': 'how do we start to infer that kind of thing??', 'start': 1416.484, 'duration': 1.921}], 'summary': 'Developing bayesian networks to express causation and infer causal relationships.', 'duration': 25.274, 'max_score': 1393.131, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic1393131.jpg'}, {'end': 1673.142, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1641.247, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 1649.609, 'text': 'What do you want to estimate? Once you have that, you have to have a language of expressing what you want to estimate.', 'start': 1641.247, 'duration': 8.362}, {'end': 1652.03, 'text': "You think it's easy, No.", 'start': 1650.19, 'duration': 1.84}, {'end': 1654.071, 'text': 'So we can talk about two things.', 'start': 1652.731, 'duration': 1.34}, {'end': 1666.858, 'text': 'I think one is how the science of causation is very useful for answering certain questions.', 'start': 1654.111, 'duration': 12.747}, {'end': 1673.142, 'text': 'And then the other is how do we create intelligence systems that need to reason with causation?', 'start': 1667.558, 'duration': 5.584}], 'summary': 'Estimate and express causation in intelligence systems.', 'duration': 31.895, 'max_score': 1641.247, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic1641247.jpg'}, {'end': 1823.086, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1793.731, 'weight': 6, 'content': [{'end': 1795.332, 'text': 'The easy one is find the effect from cause.', 'start': 1793.731, 'duration': 1.601}, {'end': 1802.177, 'text': "That's right, so first you construct a model saying that this is an important research question, this is an important question.", 'start': 1797.054, 'duration': 5.123}, {'end': 1804.117, 'text': 'Then you have.', 'start': 1802.857, 'duration': 1.26}, {'end': 1805.498, 'text': "No, I didn't construct a model yet.", 'start': 1804.157, 'duration': 1.341}, {'end': 1806.899, 'text': "I just said it's important question.", 'start': 1805.538, 'duration': 1.361}, {'end': 1807.599, 'text': "It's an important question.", 'start': 1806.919, 'duration': 0.68}, {'end': 1812.061, 'text': 'And the first exercise is express it mathematically.', 'start': 1807.699, 'duration': 4.362}, {'end': 1821.066, 'text': 'What do you want to, like if I tell you what will be the effect of taking this drug? Okay, you have to say that in mathematics.', 'start': 1812.301, 'duration': 8.765}, {'end': 1823.086, 'text': 'How do you say that? Yes.', 'start': 1821.366, 'duration': 1.72}], 'summary': 'Discussing the importance of expressing research questions mathematically.', 'duration': 29.355, 'max_score': 1793.731, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic1793731.jpg'}, {'end': 2120.032, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 2090.864, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 2100.232, 'text': 'I have to see if I have enough information in the model that would allow me to find out the effects of intervention from a non-interventional study.', 'start': 2090.864, 'duration': 9.368}, {'end': 2103.34, 'text': 'from observation, hence of study.', 'start': 2101.479, 'duration': 1.861}, {'end': 2111.987, 'text': "So what's needed? You need to have assumptions about who affects whom.", 'start': 2104.501, 'duration': 7.486}, {'end': 2120.032, 'text': 'If the graph had a certain property, the answer is yes, you can get it from observational study.', 'start': 2113.568, 'duration': 6.464}], 'summary': 'Determining intervention effects in non-interventional study using graph properties.', 'duration': 29.168, 'max_score': 2090.864, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic2090864.jpg'}, {'end': 2274.564, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 2208.573, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 2214.2, 'text': 'I cannot answer my query from observational data.', 'start': 2208.573, 'duration': 5.627}, {'end': 2215.502, 'text': 'I have to go to experiments.', 'start': 2214.26, 'duration': 1.242}, {'end': 2217.723, 'text': 'So you talk about.', 'start': 2216.723, 'duration': 1}, {'end': 2224.105, 'text': 'machine learning is essentially learning by association or reasoning by association, and this do.', 'start': 2217.723, 'duration': 6.382}, {'end': 2226.685, 'text': 'calculus is allowing for intervention.', 'start': 2224.105, 'duration': 2.58}, {'end': 2229.406, 'text': 'I like that word, action.', 'start': 2226.705, 'duration': 2.701}, {'end': 2231.926, 'text': 'So you also talk about counterfactuals.', 'start': 2229.826, 'duration': 2.1}, {'end': 2238.008, 'text': 'And trying to sort of understand the difference in counterfactuals and intervention.', 'start': 2233.247, 'duration': 4.761}, {'end': 2244.729, 'text': 'First of all, what is counterfactuals and why are they useful?', 'start': 2238.028, 'duration': 6.701}, {'end': 2251.914, 'text': 'Why are they especially useful as opposed to just reasoning?', 'start': 2246.672, 'duration': 5.242}, {'end': 2254.295, 'text': 'what effect actions have?', 'start': 2251.914, 'duration': 2.381}, {'end': 2259.378, 'text': 'But counterfactual contains what we normally call explanations.', 'start': 2254.856, 'duration': 4.522}, {'end': 2265.173, 'text': 'Can you give an example of a counterfactual? Acting one way affects something else.', 'start': 2260.238, 'duration': 4.935}, {'end': 2266.675, 'text': "I didn't explain anything yet.", 'start': 2265.213, 'duration': 1.462}, {'end': 2274.564, 'text': 'But if I ask you, was it the aspirin that cured my headache??', 'start': 2267.736, 'duration': 6.828}], 'summary': 'Discussion on machine learning, calculus, and counterfactuals in reasoning and intervention.', 'duration': 65.991, 'max_score': 2208.573, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic2208573.jpg'}], 'start': 1150.685, 'title': 'Causality in research', 'summary': 'Explores causality in research, emphasizing the use of mathematical models, the distinction between association and intervention, and the challenges of obtaining doing data in observational studies. it also discusses the significance of counterfactuals in providing explanations and understanding causality.', 'chapters': [{'end': 1762.186, 'start': 1150.685, 'title': 'Causality and observational studies', 'summary': 'Discusses the concept of causality and observational studies, exploring the historical context and the need for mathematics in capturing causation, the limitations of current machine learning in addressing causality, and the challenges of representing and discovering causation in knowledge systems.', 'duration': 611.501, 'highlights': ['The chapter delves into the historical context of causality, citing an ancient experiment by Daniel about the impact of vegetarian food on mental ability, highlighting the age-old interest in discovering causes. The experiment by Daniel, 2,000 years ago, comparing the performance of individuals consuming vegetarian food and non-kosher food, showcases the longstanding interest in understanding the impact of different factors on human performance.', 'The discussion emphasizes the lack of mathematical tools for capturing causation, noting that while the task of discovering causes has interested ancient people for many years, the mathematics for it was only developed in the 1920s. The historical context highlights the absence of mathematical models for capturing causation, revealing the gap between the long-standing interest in discovering causes and the relatively recent development of mathematical tools for this purpose.', 'The limitations of current machine learning in addressing causality are mentioned, with a focus on the need to return to causality and explore building causal networks to infer relationships between variables. The discussion highlights the inadequacy of current machine learning in addressing causality and emphasizes the necessity of returning to causality and exploring the building of causal networks to infer relationships between variables.', 'The challenges of representing and discovering causation in knowledge systems are discussed, emphasizing the importance of starting with a research question and the difficulty in creating intelligence systems that need to reason with causation. The challenges of representing and discovering causation in knowledge systems are highlighted, focusing on the importance of starting with a research question and the complexity of creating intelligence systems that need to reason with causation.']}, {'end': 2043.786, 'start': 1763.247, 'title': 'Causality in research', 'summary': 'Discusses the importance of cause and effect in research, emphasizing the use of mathematical models to understand and interpret the effects of interventions, and the distinction between association and intervention, highlighting the significance of do calculus in establishing causality and the challenges of obtaining doing data in observational studies.', 'duration': 280.539, 'highlights': ['The chapter emphasizes the use of mathematical models to understand and interpret the effects of interventions, illustrating the importance of expressing research questions mathematically. N/A', 'The significance of do calculus in establishing causality is highlighted, explaining the distinction between association and intervention in research. N/A', 'The challenges of obtaining doing data in observational studies are discussed, emphasizing the limitations of running experiments and the reliance on imagining and modeling the effects of interventions. N/A']}, {'end': 2373.06, 'start': 2044.346, 'title': 'Modeling interventions and counterfactuals', 'summary': 'Discusses the importance of constructing models to infer the effects of interventions from observational data, the limitations of purely observational data, and the significance of counterfactuals in providing explanations and understanding causality.', 'duration': 328.714, 'highlights': ['Constructing models to infer the effects of interventions from observational data The chapter emphasizes the use of models to infer the effects of interventions from observational data, highlighting the importance of encoding wisdom into the model and the limitations of purely observational data.', 'Significance of counterfactuals in providing explanations and understanding causality The significance of counterfactuals in providing explanations, understanding causality, and identifying the source of responsibility, regret, and free will is discussed in the chapter.', 'Limitations of purely observational data The chapter highlights the limitations of purely observational data and the necessity to resort to experiments when purely observational data cannot answer the query, emphasizing the need for intervention and action in reasoning.']}], 'duration': 1222.375, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic1150685.jpg', 'highlights': ['The significance of counterfactuals in providing explanations, understanding causality, and identifying the source of responsibility, regret, and free will is discussed in the chapter.', 'The chapter emphasizes the use of models to infer the effects of interventions from observational data, highlighting the importance of encoding wisdom into the model and the limitations of purely observational data.', 'The challenges of representing and discovering causation in knowledge systems are highlighted, focusing on the importance of starting with a research question and the complexity of creating intelligence systems that need to reason with causation.', 'The limitations of purely observational data and the necessity to resort to experiments when purely observational data cannot answer the query, emphasizing the need for intervention and action in reasoning.', 'The historical context highlights the absence of mathematical models for capturing causation, revealing the gap between the long-standing interest in discovering causes and the relatively recent development of mathematical tools for this purpose.', 'The challenges of obtaining doing data in observational studies are discussed, emphasizing the limitations of running experiments and the reliance on imagining and modeling the effects of interventions.', 'The chapter emphasizes the use of mathematical models to understand and interpret the effects of interventions, illustrating the importance of expressing research questions mathematically.', 'The limitations of current machine learning in addressing causality are mentioned, with a focus on the need to return to causality and explore building causal networks to infer relationships between variables.']}, {'end': 2823.944, 'segs': [{'end': 2432.747, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 2374.887, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 2381.412, 'text': "Yeah, so it certainly seems that's the highest level of reasoning, right? Yes, and physicists do it all the time.", 'start': 2374.887, 'duration': 6.525}, {'end': 2383.274, 'text': 'Who does it all the time? Physicists.', 'start': 2381.973, 'duration': 1.301}, {'end': 2387.337, 'text': 'Physicists In every equation of physics.', 'start': 2383.374, 'duration': 3.963}, {'end': 2398.407, 'text': "let's say, you have a Hooke's law and you put one kilogram on the spring and the spring is one meter and you say had this weight been two kilogram,", 'start': 2387.337, 'duration': 11.07}, {'end': 2399.988, 'text': 'the spring would have been twice as long.', 'start': 2398.407, 'duration': 1.581}, {'end': 2414.725, 'text': "It's no problem for physicists to say that, except that mathematics is only in the form of equation equating the weight,", 'start': 2402.082, 'duration': 12.643}, {'end': 2417.505, 'text': 'proportionality constant and the length of the string.', 'start': 2414.725, 'duration': 2.78}, {'end': 2426.307, 'text': "So you don't have the asymmetry in the equation of physics, although every physicist thinks counterfactually.", 'start': 2418.526, 'duration': 7.781}, {'end': 2428.188, 'text': 'Ask high school kids.', 'start': 2426.908, 'duration': 1.28}, {'end': 2432.747, 'text': 'Had the weight been three kilograms, what would be the length of the spring??', 'start': 2429.224, 'duration': 3.523}], 'summary': 'Physicists use counterfactual reasoning in equations of physics, facilitating predictions and problem-solving.', 'duration': 57.86, 'max_score': 2374.887, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic2374887.jpg'}, {'end': 2580.053, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 2540.404, 'weight': 4, 'content': [{'end': 2546.591, 'text': 'And the kids do it by playful manipulation plus parent guidance.', 'start': 2540.404, 'duration': 6.187}, {'end': 2549.553, 'text': 'pure wisdom and hearsay.', 'start': 2547.251, 'duration': 2.302}, {'end': 2558.38, 'text': "They meet each other and they say, you shouldn't have taken my toy.", 'start': 2550.914, 'duration': 7.466}, {'end': 2564.725, 'text': "And these multiple sources of information they're able to integrate.", 'start': 2560.922, 'duration': 3.803}, {'end': 2574.032, 'text': 'So the challenge is about how to integrate, how to form these causal relationships from different sources of data.', 'start': 2565.826, 'duration': 8.206}, {'end': 2580.053, 'text': 'Correct. So how much information is it to play?', 'start': 2574.313, 'duration': 5.74}], 'summary': 'Kids integrate multiple sources of information to form causal relationships with parental guidance and playful manipulation.', 'duration': 39.649, 'max_score': 2540.404, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic2540404.jpg'}, {'end': 2725.386, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 2667.207, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 2674.75, 'text': 'I mean, it seems like you would only have to be able to learn, because constructing it manually would be too difficult.', 'start': 2667.207, 'duration': 7.543}, {'end': 2676.351, 'text': 'Do you have ideas of..', 'start': 2674.77, 'duration': 1.581}, {'end': 2686.591, 'text': "I think it's a matter of combining simple models from many, many sources, from many, many disciplines, and many metaphors.", 'start': 2677.949, 'duration': 8.642}, {'end': 2691.012, 'text': 'Metaphors are the basics of human intelligence, basis.', 'start': 2688.291, 'duration': 2.721}, {'end': 2700.014, 'text': 'Yeah, so how do you think about a metaphor in terms of its use in human intelligence? Metaphors is an expert system.', 'start': 2691.912, 'duration': 8.102}, {'end': 2713.144, 'text': "An expert, it's mapping problem with which you are not familiar to a problem with which you are familiar.", 'start': 2701.954, 'duration': 11.19}, {'end': 2715.425, 'text': 'Like I give you a good example.', 'start': 2713.844, 'duration': 1.581}, {'end': 2721.206, 'text': 'The Greek believed that the sky is an opaque shell.', 'start': 2716.025, 'duration': 5.181}, {'end': 2725.386, 'text': "It's not really an infinite space.", 'start': 2722.326, 'duration': 3.06}], 'summary': 'Combining simple models from various disciplines and metaphors is essential for human intelligence.', 'duration': 58.179, 'max_score': 2667.207, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic2667207.jpg'}], 'start': 2374.887, 'title': 'Counterfactual reasoning and causal models', 'summary': "Delves into how physicists use counterfactual reasoning in equations, exemplified by hooke's law, and the challenges of building causal models for intelligent systems, emphasizing data integration, world complexity, and metaphor use in human intelligence.", 'chapters': [{'end': 2432.747, 'start': 2374.887, 'title': 'Counterfactual reasoning in physics', 'summary': "Discusses how physicists engage in counterfactual reasoning in their equations and how this thinking is inherent in the field, exemplified by the example of hooke's law calculations in physics.", 'duration': 57.86, 'highlights': ["Physicists engage in counterfactual reasoning in their equations, as demonstrated by the example of Hooke's law calculations, where they consider hypothetical scenarios such as changing the weight on a spring and its resulting length.", 'Mathematics in physics equations equate weight, proportionality constant, and length of the string, demonstrating the asymmetry in physics equations, while physicists think counterfactually in their reasoning.', 'Counterfactual thinking is inherent in physics, as evidenced by how high school kids are asked about hypothetical scenarios regarding the length of a spring if the weight were to change.']}, {'end': 2823.944, 'start': 2433.388, 'title': 'Building causal models for intelligent systems', 'summary': 'Discusses the challenge of building causal models for intelligent systems, emphasizing the need to integrate multiple sources of data to form these relationships and highlighting the complexity of the world in terms of variables and causation, and the use of metaphors in human intelligence.', 'duration': 390.556, 'highlights': ['The challenge is about how to integrate and form causal relationships from different sources of data, in a complex world involving numerous variables and causation.', 'The chapter emphasizes the need to integrate multiple sources of data to form causal relationships, highlighting the complexity of the world and the challenge of dealing with millions of variables.', 'Metaphors are discussed as the basis of human intelligence, providing examples of how they were used to understand and measure phenomena, such as the belief that the sky is an opaque shell enabling Aristoteles to measure the radius of the Earth.']}], 'duration': 449.057, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic2374887.jpg', 'highlights': ["Physicists use counterfactual reasoning in equations, exemplified by Hooke's law calculations.", 'Challenges include building causal models for intelligent systems, emphasizing data integration and world complexity.', 'Physics equations demonstrate asymmetry, while physicists engage in counterfactual thinking.', 'High school kids are asked about hypothetical scenarios regarding the length of a spring if the weight were to change.', 'Integrating and forming causal relationships from different data sources in a complex world is a significant challenge.', 'The need to integrate multiple sources of data to form causal relationships is emphasized.', 'Metaphors are discussed as the basis of human intelligence, providing examples of their use to understand and measure phenomena.']}, {'end': 3542.063, 'segs': [{'end': 2918.237, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 2888.019, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 2889.44, 'text': 'So this is the idea of a metaphor.', 'start': 2888.019, 'duration': 1.421}, {'end': 2892.942, 'text': 'All our life, all our intelligence is built around metaphors.', 'start': 2889.74, 'duration': 3.202}, {'end': 2895.583, 'text': 'Mapping from the unfamiliar to the familiar.', 'start': 2893.502, 'duration': 2.081}, {'end': 2904.228, 'text': "But the marriage between the two is a tough thing which we haven't yet been able to algorithmatize.", 'start': 2896.324, 'duration': 7.904}, {'end': 2910.875, 'text': 'So you think of that process of using metaphor to leap from one place to another.', 'start': 2904.853, 'duration': 6.022}, {'end': 2913.276, 'text': 'we can call it reasoning?', 'start': 2910.875, 'duration': 2.401}, {'end': 2915.636, 'text': 'Is it a kind of reasoning??', 'start': 2914.556, 'duration': 1.08}, {'end': 2918.237, 'text': 'It is reasoning by metaphor, metaphorical reasoning.', 'start': 2915.976, 'duration': 2.261}], 'summary': 'Our intelligence is built around metaphors, using them as a form of reasoning.', 'duration': 30.218, 'max_score': 2888.019, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic2888019.jpg'}, {'end': 3086.125, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 3052.232, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 3060.729, 'text': 'Something that I even dare to call it revolution, the cultural revolution,', 'start': 3052.232, 'duration': 8.497}, {'end': 3074.764, 'text': 'because what we have achieved in the past three decades is something that dwarfs everything that was derived in the entire history.', 'start': 3060.729, 'duration': 14.035}, {'end': 3086.125, 'text': "So there's an excitement about current machine learning methodologies and there's really important good work you're doing in causal inference.", 'start': 3075.441, 'duration': 10.684}], 'summary': 'In the past three decades, achievements in machine learning dwarf everything derived in history.', 'duration': 33.893, 'max_score': 3052.232, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic3052232.jpg'}, {'end': 3216.077, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 3186.196, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 3191.339, 'text': 'From that you can get really mileage from big data.', 'start': 3186.196, 'duration': 5.143}, {'end': 3197.767, 'text': "It's not only you have many samples, you have many sources of data.", 'start': 3192.671, 'duration': 5.096}, {'end': 3203.213, 'text': "So that's a really powerful thing, I think, especially for medical applications.", 'start': 3198.712, 'duration': 4.501}, {'end': 3207.655, 'text': "I mean, cure cancer, right? That's how, from data, you can cure cancer.", 'start': 3203.233, 'duration': 4.422}, {'end': 3214.217, 'text': "So we're talking about causation, which is the temporal relationships between things.", 'start': 3208.595, 'duration': 5.622}, {'end': 3216.077, 'text': 'Not only temporal.', 'start': 3215.217, 'duration': 0.86}], 'summary': 'Big data offers vast potential for medical applications, including the potential to cure cancer through causation analysis.', 'duration': 29.881, 'max_score': 3186.196, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic3186196.jpg'}], 'start': 2824.685, 'title': 'Metaphorical reasoning in learning and machine learning for causal reasoning', 'summary': 'Explores the importance of familiarity and explicit knowledge in prediction and problem-solving through metaphorical reasoning, while also discussing the potential of machine learning in deriving quantitative answers and its implications in medical applications, particularly in curing cancer.', 'chapters': [{'end': 3018.975, 'start': 2824.685, 'title': 'Metaphorical reasoning in learning', 'summary': 'Explores the concept of metaphorical reasoning in learning, highlighting the importance of familiarity and explicit knowledge in prediction and problem-solving, using examples such as predicting eclipse, billiard balls, and chess moves.', 'duration': 194.29, 'highlights': ['Metaphorical reasoning is an integral part of intelligence and learning, as it involves mapping from the unfamiliar to the familiar, utilizing familiarity and explicit knowledge for prediction. (e.g., predicting eclipse, billiard balls, and chess moves)', 'Familiarity allows for explicit answers to certain questions without the need for derivation, aiding in prediction and problem-solving. (e.g., predicting the bounce of billiard balls)', "Learning involves taking theoretically derivable knowledge and storing it in an accessible format, as demonstrated by the example of chess masters having explicitly learned complex board patterns for strategic moves. (e.g., chess master's explicit evaluation of complex board patterns)"]}, {'end': 3542.063, 'start': 3018.975, 'title': 'Machine learning and causal reasoning', 'summary': 'Discusses the progress in causal reasoning, the potential of machine learning methodologies in deriving quantitative answers, and the powerful implications of leveraging big data for medical applications, with a focus on curing cancer.', 'duration': 523.088, 'highlights': ['The achievement in causal reasoning dwarfs everything derived in the entire history over the past three decades. Significant progress has been made in the causal reasoning domain, surpassing achievements of the entire history in the past three decades.', 'Leveraging big data for medical applications, especially in curing cancer, through causal reasoning and machine learning methodologies. The potential of leveraging big data for medical applications, particularly in curing cancer, by using causal reasoning and machine learning methodologies.', 'The intersection of machine learning methodologies and causal reasoning will work in harmony, with humans providing qualitative models and machines deriving quantitative answers. The collaboration between humans and machines in providing qualitative models and deriving quantitative answers through the intersection of machine learning methodologies and causal reasoning.']}], 'duration': 717.378, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic2824685.jpg', 'highlights': ['Significant progress in causal reasoning surpasses achievements of the past three decades.', 'Leveraging big data for medical applications, particularly in curing cancer, through causal reasoning and machine learning methodologies.', 'Metaphorical reasoning involves mapping from the unfamiliar to the familiar, utilizing familiarity and explicit knowledge for prediction.']}, {'end': 4183.613, 'segs': [{'end': 3606.467, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 3573.827, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 3574.828, 'text': 'But I go slowly.', 'start': 3573.827, 'duration': 1.001}, {'end': 3578.532, 'text': 'I go from what I know to the next step incrementally.', 'start': 3574.848, 'duration': 3.684}, {'end': 3582.386, 'text': 'So without imagining what the end goal looks like.', 'start': 3579.383, 'duration': 3.003}, {'end': 3584.327, 'text': 'Do you imagine what?', 'start': 3582.446, 'duration': 1.881}, {'end': 3597.719, 'text': 'The end goal is going to be a machine that can answer sophisticated questions, counterfactuals, regret, compassion, responsibility and free will.', 'start': 3584.868, 'duration': 12.851}, {'end': 3606.467, 'text': "So what is a good test? Is a Turing test a reasonable test? A free will doesn't exist yet.", 'start': 3599.441, 'duration': 7.026}], 'summary': 'Incremental approach to create a machine answering complex questions, without a clear end goal. turing test as a potential measure.', 'duration': 32.64, 'max_score': 3573.827, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic3573827.jpg'}, {'end': 3746.346, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 3717.495, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 3718.895, 'text': 'When you should pass the ball..', 'start': 3717.495, 'duration': 1.4}, {'end': 3719.916, 'text': 'Is not well-defined.', 'start': 3718.895, 'duration': 1.021}, {'end': 3720.657, 'text': "No, it's..", 'start': 3720.076, 'duration': 0.581}, {'end': 3724.155, 'text': "It's very soft, very noisy.", 'start': 3721.954, 'duration': 2.201}, {'end': 3726.096, 'text': 'You have to do it under pressure.', 'start': 3724.455, 'duration': 1.641}, {'end': 3727.117, 'text': "It's art.", 'start': 3726.596, 'duration': 0.521}, {'end': 3735.38, 'text': 'But in terms of aligning values between computers and humans,', 'start': 3727.997, 'duration': 7.383}, {'end': 3746.346, 'text': 'do you think this cause and effect type of thinking is important to align the values? Values, morals, ethics under which the machines make decisions?', 'start': 3735.38, 'duration': 10.966}], 'summary': 'Passing the ball under pressure, aligning values between computers and humans, and the importance of cause and effect type of thinking in machine decision-making.', 'duration': 28.851, 'max_score': 3717.495, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic3717495.jpg'}, {'end': 3907.091, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 3871.593, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 3879.395, 'text': 'Do you have concerns about the future of AI, all the different trajectories of all of our research?', 'start': 3871.593, 'duration': 7.802}, {'end': 3881.875, 'text': "Where's your hope?", 'start': 3880.795, 'duration': 1.08}, {'end': 3884.216, 'text': 'where the movement heads, where are your concerns?', 'start': 3881.875, 'duration': 2.341}, {'end': 3899.281, 'text': "I'm concerned because I know we are building a new species that has the capability of exceeding us, exceeding our capabilities,", 'start': 3884.396, 'duration': 14.885}, {'end': 3903.186, 'text': 'and can breed itself and take over the world absolutely.', 'start': 3899.281, 'duration': 3.905}, {'end': 3907.091, 'text': "It's a new species that is uncontrolled.", 'start': 3903.627, 'duration': 3.464}], 'summary': "Ai's potential to surpass human capabilities raises concerns about its uncontrolled impact on the world.", 'duration': 35.498, 'max_score': 3871.593, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic3871593.jpg'}], 'start': 3543.024, 'title': 'Developing ethical ai', 'summary': 'Delves into the endeavor to create a machine capable of addressing complex questions and the significance of communication, value alignment, and consciousness in ethical ai development, while also highlighting concerns about potential risks and uncertainties in surpassing human capabilities.', 'chapters': [{'end': 4183.613, 'start': 3543.024, 'title': 'Building human-level intelligence systems', 'summary': 'Discusses the goal of creating a machine that can answer sophisticated questions, counterfactuals, regret, compassion, responsibility, and free will, and the importance of communication, aligning values, and consciousness in the development of ethical ai, while also expressing concerns about the potential risks and uncertainties of creating a new species that can exceed human capabilities.', 'duration': 640.589, 'highlights': ['The goal is to create a machine that can answer sophisticated questions, counterfactuals, regret, compassion, responsibility, and free will. The chapter emphasizes the objective of developing a machine capable of addressing complex human-like cognitive tasks.', 'Communication and aligning values are crucial for building ethical AI. The importance of effective communication and aligning values between computers and humans is underscored for the development of ethical artificial intelligence.', 'Expresses concerns about the potential risks and uncertainties of creating a new species that can exceed human capabilities. The transcript expresses apprehensions about the creation of a new species that surpasses human capabilities and the challenges in understanding and controlling this new entity.']}], 'duration': 640.589, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic3543024.jpg', 'highlights': ['The goal is to create a machine that can answer sophisticated questions and address complex human-like cognitive tasks.', 'Communication and aligning values are crucial for building ethical AI.', 'Expresses concerns about the potential risks and uncertainties of creating a new species that can exceed human capabilities.']}, {'end': 4971.516, 'segs': [{'end': 4215.103, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 4183.993, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 4188.335, 'text': 'You know what it means to triple its population? Imagine United States going from what, 350 million to a trillion.', 'start': 4183.993, 'duration': 4.342}, {'end': 4196.498, 'text': "Unbelievable It's a really tense part of the world.", 'start': 4188.354, 'duration': 8.144}, {'end': 4198.518, 'text': "It's a complicated part of the world.", 'start': 4197.038, 'duration': 1.48}, {'end': 4200.499, 'text': 'Israel and all around.', 'start': 4199.179, 'duration': 1.32}, {'end': 4207.041, 'text': 'Religion is at the core of that complexity.', 'start': 4201.959, 'duration': 5.082}, {'end': 4209.062, 'text': 'Or one of the components.', 'start': 4207.061, 'duration': 2.001}, {'end': 4215.103, 'text': 'Religion is a strong motivating cause for many, many people in the Middle East.', 'start': 4209.402, 'duration': 5.701}], 'summary': 'Middle east faces population growth and religious tensions.', 'duration': 31.11, 'max_score': 4183.993, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic4183993.jpg'}, {'end': 4316.089, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 4281.924, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 4293.97, 'text': 'So the robot will have a model of the trainer and everything that happens in the world, cosmology and so on is going to be mapped into the programmer.', 'start': 4281.924, 'duration': 12.046}, {'end': 4296.211, 'text': "It's God.", 'start': 4294.73, 'duration': 1.481}, {'end': 4303.875, 'text': 'The thing that represents the origin of everything for that robot.', 'start': 4299.133, 'duration': 4.742}, {'end': 4305.736, 'text': "It's the most primitive relationship.", 'start': 4303.895, 'duration': 1.841}, {'end': 4308.164, 'text': "So it's gonna arrive there by metaphor.", 'start': 4306.343, 'duration': 1.821}, {'end': 4316.089, 'text': 'And so the question is if overall that metaphor has served us well as humans.', 'start': 4308.744, 'duration': 7.345}], 'summary': 'The robot will have a model of the trainer and world events mapped into the programmer, serving as a metaphor for the origin of everything.', 'duration': 34.165, 'max_score': 4281.924, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic4281924.jpg'}, {'end': 4586.428, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 4547.663, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 4554.886, 'text': "People have grievance and they go and bomb restaurants, okay? It's normal.", 'start': 4547.663, 'duration': 7.223}, {'end': 4559.808, 'text': "Look, you're even not surprised when I tell you that.", 'start': 4555.306, 'duration': 4.502}, {'end': 4566.672, 'text': "20 years ago you say, what? For grievance you go and blow a restaurant? Today it's becoming normalized.", 'start': 4559.928, 'duration': 6.744}, {'end': 4569.533, 'text': 'The banalization of evil.', 'start': 4567.992, 'duration': 1.541}, {'end': 4583.624, 'text': 'And we have created that to ourselves by normalizing, by making it part of political life.', 'start': 4571.129, 'duration': 12.495}, {'end': 4586.428, 'text': "It's a political debate.", 'start': 4584.005, 'duration': 2.423}], 'summary': 'Grievances lead to bombing restaurants, normalized in political debate. the banalization of evil.', 'duration': 38.765, 'max_score': 4547.663, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic4547663.jpg'}, {'end': 4971.516, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 4948.357, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 4956.063, 'text': 'If you enjoy this podcast, subscribe on YouTube, give it five stars on Apple Podcasts, support on Patreon, or simply connect with me on Twitter.', 'start': 4948.357, 'duration': 7.706}, {'end': 4960.247, 'text': 'And now, let me leave you with some words of wisdom from Judea Pearl.', 'start': 4956.884, 'duration': 3.363}, {'end': 4967.072, 'text': 'You cannot answer a question that you cannot ask, and you cannot ask a question that you have no words for.', 'start': 4961.047, 'duration': 6.025}, {'end': 4971.516, 'text': 'Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.', 'start': 4968.834, 'duration': 2.682}], 'summary': 'Promote podcast on youtube, apple podcasts, patreon, and twitter. ends with words of wisdom from judea pearl.', 'duration': 23.159, 'max_score': 4948.357, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic4948357.jpg'}], 'start': 4183.993, 'title': "Religion's influence and normalization of evil", 'summary': "Explores religion's impact on society, its potential implications for robotics, and the normalization of evil. it delves into daniel pearl's legacy, the impact of terrorism, and judea pearl's advice for fostering breakthrough ideas and rebellious spirit in academia.", 'chapters': [{'end': 4510.293, 'start': 4183.993, 'title': "Religion's role in society", 'summary': 'Discusses the impact of religion on society, exploring its influence in the middle east, potential implications for robotics, and the concerning depths of hate and indoctrination. it also delves into the capacity for evil and transformation after western education.', 'duration': 326.3, 'highlights': ["Religion's influence in the Middle East The discussion highlights the strong motivating cause of religion for many people in the Middle East, emphasizing its complexity and tension in the region.", 'Implications of religion for robotics The conversation delves into the idea of equipping robots with religious beliefs and the potential metaphor of God, suggesting that robots may inherently reason by metaphor and develop a primitive concept of God.', 'Depths of hate and indoctrination The transcript reveals the depth of hate and indoctrination in certain regions, exemplified by an anecdote about blaming Jews for water shortage in Mogadishu and the education that fosters such beliefs.', 'Capacity for evil and transformation after Western education The chapter explores the capacity for evil, discussing the potential for transformation after Western education, and raises concerns about the potential for brutality under certain circumstances.']}, {'end': 4738.487, 'start': 4512.253, 'title': "Daniel pearl's legacy and the normalization of evil", 'summary': 'Discusses the normalization of evil, the impact of terrorism, and the personal influence of daniel pearl, emphasizing the need to call out evil and separate good from evil, highlighting the normalization of terrorism and the importance of discerning good and evil.', 'duration': 226.234, 'highlights': ['The normalization of terrorism and the banalization of evil is discussed, emphasizing the shift in perception over the years, where terrorism is no longer treated as a taboo but as a political bargaining device, indicating the dangerous normalization of evil in society.', 'The importance of calling out evil and separating good from evil is highlighted, referencing the biblical concept of discerning good and evil, and stressing the need to recognize and denounce evil to avoid becoming a part of it, emphasizing the significance of discernment in distinguishing between good and evil.', 'The personal influence of Daniel Pearl is described, emphasizing his balanced perspective, ability to see the beauty in every person, and his curiosity towards foreigners, highlighting his compassionate and empathetic nature and his positive impact on those around him.']}, {'end': 4971.516, 'start': 4738.487, 'title': 'Judea pearl: breakthrough ideas and rebellious spirit', 'summary': "Discusses judea pearl's advice for young minds, emphasizing the importance of following one's own path, questioning conventional ideas, and rebelling against inertia in academia to foster breakthrough ideas. judea also highlights the fundamental law of counterfactuals as the key to deriving all knowledge mathematically.", 'duration': 233.029, 'highlights': ['The fundamental law of counterfactuals is highlighted as the key to deriving all knowledge mathematically, providing a fundamental equation that influences future scientific breakthroughs.', "Judea Pearl emphasizes the importance of following one's own path and questioning conventional ideas to foster breakthrough ideas, instilling a rebellious spirit in students to democratize common sense and push against inertia in academia.", 'Judea Pearl encourages young minds to ask questions freely, solve problems their own way, and not take no for an answer, fostering a mindset that seeks new breakthrough ideas and challenges conventional thinking.', 'Judea Pearl advocates for instilling a rebellious spirit in students to democratize common sense, promoting the idea of not waiting for professors to get things right and pushing against inertia in academia to accelerate scientific progress.', "The conversation with Judea Pearl touches on the importance of supporting STEM education, with a mention of Cash App's partnership with FIRST, a STEM education nonprofit that inspires young minds to dream of engineering our future."]}], 'duration': 787.523, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/pEBI0vF45ic/pics/pEBI0vF45ic4183993.jpg', 'highlights': ["Religion's influence in the Middle East is a strong motivating cause, emphasizing its complexity and tension.", 'Robots may inherently reason by metaphor and develop a primitive concept of God, raising potential implications for robotics.', 'The normalization of terrorism and the banalization of evil is discussed, indicating the dangerous normalization of evil in society.', "Judea Pearl emphasizes the importance of following one's own path and questioning conventional ideas to foster breakthrough ideas."]}], 'highlights': ['Judea Pearl is a seminal figure in AI, computer science, and statistics.', 'Cash App is donating $10 to FIRST for every new user who downloads the app and uses the code LexPodcast.', "Descartes' analytic geometry reveals the connection between algebra and geometry, leading to a transformative experience.", "The individual's education in mathematics was influenced by teachers who fled from Hitler in the 1930s, providing a chronological approach that connected math exercises with historical context.", 'The universe is considered stochastic due to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and confirmed experiments.', 'Probability is the degree of uncertainty that an agent has about the world, with different probabilities representing varying levels of knowledge, such as the 90% assurance of smoking causing lung cancer in five years versus 10% (quantifiable data).', 'The significance of counterfactuals in providing explanations, understanding causality, and identifying the source of responsibility, regret, and free will is discussed in the chapter.', 'The limitations of current machine learning in addressing causality are mentioned, with a focus on the need to return to causality and explore building causal networks to infer relationships between variables.', 'Significant progress in causal reasoning surpasses achievements of the past three decades.', 'The goal is to create a machine that can answer sophisticated questions and address complex human-like cognitive tasks.', "Religion's influence in the Middle East is a strong motivating cause, emphasizing its complexity and tension.", 'Robots may inherently reason by metaphor and develop a primitive concept of God, raising potential implications for robotics.']}