title
Ray Dalio Explaining Principles of Investing

description
Watch our NEW video with Ray Dalio: https://youtu.be/nFskBO2c4Ls Watch Part 2: https://youtu.be/wP2fnqhzJk0

detail
{'title': 'Ray Dalio Explaining Principles of Investing', 'heatmap': [{'end': 2539.841, 'start': 2513.159, 'weight': 1}], 'summary': "Covers various topics including 25-year friendship and systematic decision-making, economic principles and debt cycles, economic cycles and equilibriums, capitalism's impact on wealth gap, country's power indices, investment principles, and diversification, as well as asset class diversification.", 'chapters': [{'end': 61.62, 'segs': [{'end': 61.62, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1.89, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 14.64, 'text': "So, as Hasha mentioned, it's been 25 years that we've been friends and professional colleagues,", 'start': 1.89, 'duration': 12.75}, {'end': 19.524, 'text': "and so when I look in the room and I see these old friends, I'm so happy to be here.", 'start': 14.64, 'duration': 4.884}, {'end': 26.81, 'text': "He also mentioned that I'm very systematic,", 'start': 21.826, 'duration': 4.984}, {'end': 36.506, 'text': 'meaning I got in a habit of every time I would make a decision to write down the criteria I would use to make that decision.', 'start': 26.81, 'duration': 9.696}, {'end': 38.167, 'text': "We're getting a little echo, I think.", 'start': 36.926, 'duration': 1.241}, {'end': 43.85, 'text': "And it's not a big room, so I don't even know if I need a mic.", 'start': 39.407, 'duration': 4.443}, {'end': 51.954, 'text': 'So every time I would make a decision, I would write down the criteria I used for making those decisions.', 'start': 46.791, 'duration': 5.163}, {'end': 57.656, 'text': 'cause effect, everything happens because of a cause.', 'start': 54.673, 'duration': 2.983}, {'end': 61.62, 'text': 'And the same things happen over and over again.', 'start': 58.497, 'duration': 3.123}], 'summary': 'Celebrating 25 years of friendship and professional collaboration, emphasizing systematic decision-making process.', 'duration': 59.73, 'max_score': 1.89, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye01890.jpg'}], 'start': 1.89, 'title': '25 years of friendship and systematic decision making', 'summary': 'Discusses a 25-year friendship and professional relationship, highlighting systematic decision making through documented criteria, illustrated with a cause-and-effect example.', 'chapters': [{'end': 61.62, 'start': 1.89, 'title': '25 years of friendship and systematic decision making', 'summary': "Discusses the 25-year friendship and professional relationship, emphasizing the speaker's systematic approach to decision making by writing down decision criteria every time, with an example of cause and effect.", 'duration': 59.73, 'highlights': ['The speaker emphasizes the 25 years of friendship and professional colleagueship, highlighting the joy of being among old friends.', "The speaker's systematic approach to decision making is highlighted, mentioning the habit of writing down decision criteria every time a decision is made.", "An example of cause and effect is used to illustrate the speaker's approach to decision making, emphasizing that everything happens because of a cause."]}], 'duration': 59.73, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye01890.jpg', 'highlights': ['The speaker emphasizes the 25 years of friendship and professional colleagueship, highlighting the joy of being among old friends.', "The speaker's systematic approach to decision making is highlighted, mentioning the habit of writing down decision criteria every time a decision is made.", "An example of cause and effect is used to illustrate the speaker's approach to decision making, emphasizing that everything happens because of a cause."]}, {'end': 536.973, 'segs': [{'end': 114.091, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 87.012, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 90.313, 'text': "It was really the most important thing in terms of whatever success we've had.", 'start': 87.012, 'duration': 3.301}, {'end': 96.264, 'text': 'At the same time, I wrote down the economic and investment principles.', 'start': 91.999, 'duration': 4.265}, {'end': 109.558, 'text': 'So what I thought I would do today is to share with you what I think are my most important economic and investment principles and then look at the world through the perspective of those principles.', 'start': 96.764, 'duration': 12.794}, {'end': 114.091, 'text': 'In other words, rather than just tell you what I think, I want to tell you how it works.', 'start': 110.128, 'duration': 3.963}], 'summary': 'Sharing economic and investment principles for success.', 'duration': 27.079, 'max_score': 87.012, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye087012.jpg'}, {'end': 274.684, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 161.187, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 164.751, 'text': 'in order to understand the market, you have to understand the economy.', 'start': 161.187, 'duration': 3.564}, {'end': 170.316, 'text': 'So I want to describe how I think the economy works.', 'start': 165.391, 'duration': 4.925}, {'end': 173.639, 'text': "I think it's like a perpetual motion machine.", 'start': 170.336, 'duration': 3.303}, {'end': 180.574, 'text': 'And there are four big forces Three important equilibriums and two levers.', 'start': 174.72, 'duration': 5.854}, {'end': 186.216, 'text': 'If you get this down, I think this basically, everything through my eyes is along those lines.', 'start': 180.714, 'duration': 5.502}, {'end': 193.019, 'text': 'Over a period of time, we raise our living standards because we learn how to do things better.', 'start': 187.657, 'duration': 5.362}, {'end': 194.38, 'text': 'We become more efficient.', 'start': 193.199, 'duration': 1.181}, {'end': 196.12, 'text': "That's called productivity.", 'start': 194.78, 'duration': 1.34}, {'end': 198.421, 'text': 'Output per man hour.', 'start': 196.681, 'duration': 1.74}, {'end': 202.043, 'text': 'And that is something that evolves over a period of time.', 'start': 199.302, 'duration': 2.741}, {'end': 210.911, 'text': 'That is, because it evolves, it is not something that is a big thing, that we see as a big thing.', 'start': 204.324, 'duration': 6.587}, {'end': 214.094, 'text': "But it's the most important thing over a period of time.", 'start': 211.572, 'duration': 2.522}, {'end': 219, 'text': 'The big things that we see and feel every day are debt cycles.', 'start': 214.635, 'duration': 4.365}, {'end': 222.741, 'text': "There's a short-term debt cycle and there's a long-term debt cycle.", 'start': 219.52, 'duration': 3.221}, {'end': 231.563, 'text': 'When I say a short-term debt cycle, what I mean is what we think of as normally the business cycle, right? You have a recession.', 'start': 223.161, 'duration': 8.402}, {'end': 233.584, 'text': 'You have a weakness in the economy.', 'start': 231.723, 'duration': 1.861}, {'end': 240.546, 'text': 'When the rate of economic activity is too low, then central banks produce credit.', 'start': 234.104, 'duration': 6.442}, {'end': 243.711, 'text': 'and credit is buying power.', 'start': 241.628, 'duration': 2.083}, {'end': 254.205, 'text': 'So you produce that credit, it makes purchases of goods, services, and financial assets happen, and so the economy picks up.', 'start': 244.472, 'duration': 9.733}, {'end': 258.99, 'text': 'That cycle usually lasts, seven to 10 years.', 'start': 254.786, 'duration': 4.204}, {'end': 266.117, 'text': 'As the economy picks up, the demand rises relative to the capacity.', 'start': 259.831, 'duration': 6.286}, {'end': 270.561, 'text': 'As you get later in the cycle, the central bank puts the brakes on it.', 'start': 266.337, 'duration': 4.224}, {'end': 274.684, 'text': 'They raise interest rates, tighten monetary policy.', 'start': 270.801, 'duration': 3.883}], 'summary': 'Understanding the economy as a perpetual motion machine with four forces, three equilibriums, and two debt cycles, driving productivity and influencing living standards.', 'duration': 113.497, 'max_score': 161.187, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye0161187.jpg'}, {'end': 354.869, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 327.241, 'weight': 6, 'content': [{'end': 335.066, 'text': "There's also a long-term debt cycle, which is the accumulation of all of those shorter-term debt cycles.", 'start': 327.241, 'duration': 7.825}, {'end': 339.409, 'text': 'Because everybody wants things to go up.', 'start': 335.766, 'duration': 3.643}, {'end': 343.841, 'text': 'They want their asset prices the markets to go up.', 'start': 340.339, 'duration': 3.502}, {'end': 345.763, 'text': 'They want employment to go up.', 'start': 344.222, 'duration': 1.541}, {'end': 347.584, 'text': 'They want everything to go up.', 'start': 346.083, 'duration': 1.501}, {'end': 354.869, 'text': 'And for that reason they central banks over a period of time stimulate,', 'start': 348.124, 'duration': 6.745}], 'summary': 'Long-term debt cycle driven by desire for growth; central banks stimulate over time.', 'duration': 27.628, 'max_score': 327.241, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye0327241.jpg'}, {'end': 512.852, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 418.767, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 425.573, 'text': "And that's very similar to 1929 to 32, there was a debt crisis and interest rates hit zero.", 'start': 418.767, 'duration': 6.806}, {'end': 438.903, 'text': 'And in both of those cases there was the printing of money and the buying of financial assets which caused those financial asset prices to go up and more liquidity in the economy.', 'start': 426.373, 'duration': 12.53}, {'end': 444.668, 'text': 'And that particularly benefited those who had financial assets.', 'start': 439.524, 'duration': 5.144}, {'end': 453.43, 'text': 'And it contributed to the wealth gap and the income gap, as did technology.', 'start': 445.723, 'duration': 7.707}, {'end': 460.677, 'text': 'And as a result of that, in the 1930s, as also happened now, politics entered into the picture.', 'start': 454.071, 'duration': 6.606}, {'end': 474.223, 'text': "So as we're seeing in the world right now, that issue of wealth gap is causing populism, populism of the left and populism of the right.", 'start': 461.538, 'duration': 12.685}, {'end': 478.847, 'text': "And that's having an effect on the markets and having an effect on the economy.", 'start': 474.743, 'duration': 4.104}, {'end': 491.418, 'text': "So we are also seeing a situation, very much like the 30s, in which we're seeing a rising power challenging an existing power.", 'start': 479.667, 'duration': 11.751}, {'end': 495.582, 'text': "That's a geopolitical cycle.", 'start': 493.561, 'duration': 2.021}, {'end': 503.067, 'text': 'When a rising power in the form of China, a challenging and existing power in the form of the United States.', 'start': 496.603, 'duration': 6.464}, {'end': 512.852, 'text': "And if we look at histories and cycles of those periods, there's a cycle of conflict and peace.", 'start': 503.547, 'duration': 9.305}], 'summary': 'Debt crisis and printing money led to wealth gap, populism, and geopolitical challenges.', 'duration': 94.085, 'max_score': 418.767, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye0418767.jpg'}], 'start': 62.321, 'title': 'Economic principles and debt cycles', 'summary': 'Emphasizes the significance of understanding and applying important economic and investment principles for long-term success, including the concept of productivity. it also discusses the impact of debt on economic cycles, the role of central banks in stimulating the economy, and parallels between historical and current economic and political situations.', 'chapters': [{'end': 214.094, 'start': 62.321, 'title': 'Investment and economic principles', 'summary': "Discusses the author's important economic and investment principles and emphasizes the significance of understanding and applying these principles for long-term success, including the concept of productivity and its impact on raising living standards.", 'duration': 151.773, 'highlights': ['Understanding and applying economic and investment principles is crucial for long-term success, as it provides the ability to adapt to different times and circumstances.', 'Productivity, measured as output per man hour, is the most important factor in raising living standards over time.', 'The author emphasizes the importance of culture in achieving success, highlighting the value of principles in decision-making and problem-solving.', 'The economy is likened to a perpetual motion machine, influenced by four big forces, three important equilibriums, and two levers.']}, {'end': 536.973, 'start': 214.635, 'title': 'Debt cycles and economic trends', 'summary': 'Discusses the short-term and long-term debt cycles, the impact of debt on economic cycles, the role of central banks in stimulating the economy, the wealth and income gap, and the geopolitical power struggles, drawing parallels between historical and current economic and political situations.', 'duration': 322.338, 'highlights': ['The short-term debt cycle lasts 7 to 10 years, with periods of economic stimulation and recession.', 'Central banks stimulate the economy by producing credit, leading to increased spending and demand for goods, services, and financial assets.', 'The long-term debt cycle results from the accumulation of shorter-term debt cycles, with central banks stimulating the economy by lowering interest rates and resorting to quantitative easing when interest rates hit zero.', 'The wealth and income gap is exacerbated by the printing of money and buying of financial assets, leading to increased financial asset prices and liquidity in the economy.', 'The wealth gap is causing populism of the left and right, influencing the markets and the economy, similar to the effects seen in the 1930s.', 'There is a rising power (China) challenging an existing power (United States), leading to a geopolitical cycle of conflict and peace, with potential implications for global stability.']}], 'duration': 474.652, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye062321.jpg', 'highlights': ['Productivity is crucial for raising living standards over time.', 'Understanding economic and investment principles is crucial for long-term success.', 'Central banks stimulate the economy by producing credit.', 'The wealth and income gap is exacerbated by the printing of money and buying of financial assets.', 'The economy is influenced by four big forces, three important equilibriums, and two levers.', 'The short-term debt cycle lasts 7 to 10 years, with periods of economic stimulation and recession.', 'The long-term debt cycle results from the accumulation of shorter-term debt cycles.', 'The wealth gap is causing populism of the left and right, influencing the markets and the economy.', 'There is a rising power (China) challenging an existing power (United States), leading to a geopolitical cycle of conflict and peace.']}, {'end': 1086.395, 'segs': [{'end': 597.992, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 537.553, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 541.896, 'text': 'So these cycles, these things have happened over and over again.', 'start': 537.553, 'duration': 4.343}, {'end': 547.819, 'text': 'So politics enters into, can affect the cycles.', 'start': 542.396, 'duration': 5.423}, {'end': 560.127, 'text': 'For example, the shift in the United States to be able to create tax cut changes helped the corporate tax picture and caused stock prices to rise.', 'start': 547.899, 'duration': 12.228}, {'end': 563.121, 'text': 'Okay, those are the cycles.', 'start': 561.32, 'duration': 1.801}, {'end': 568.502, 'text': "Then when I look at what's happening, I compare it to three equilibriums.", 'start': 563.701, 'duration': 4.801}, {'end': 580.205, 'text': "What are these three equilibriums? First, that debt growth has to be in line with the income growth that's required to service the debt.", 'start': 569.822, 'duration': 10.383}, {'end': 589.868, 'text': "If debt growth is faster than the income growth that's going to service the debt, we're going to have an adjustment.", 'start': 583.686, 'duration': 6.182}, {'end': 597.992, 'text': "And so I'm always doing the pro forma, what is the ability to service that debt? So that's what I'm watching.", 'start': 591.287, 'duration': 6.705}], 'summary': 'Politics affect economic cycles. tax cuts led to stock rise. debt growth must align with income growth to avoid adjustments.', 'duration': 60.439, 'max_score': 537.553, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye0537553.jpg'}, {'end': 676.362, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 644.761, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 649.584, 'text': 'which are above the projected returns of cash by appropriate risk premiums.', 'start': 644.761, 'duration': 4.823}, {'end': 658.53, 'text': 'In other words, the capital markets produce the circulation of buying power in the form of this credit coming around.', 'start': 649.804, 'duration': 8.726}, {'end': 669.477, 'text': 'And this relationship of the cash to bond yields to stock yields and asset classes determines how money flows through the economy.', 'start': 659.31, 'duration': 10.167}, {'end': 676.362, 'text': "And a normal condition is, for reasons I won't digress into, to have cash,", 'start': 670.297, 'duration': 6.065}], 'summary': 'Capital markets generate higher returns than cash, influencing money flow in the economy.', 'duration': 31.601, 'max_score': 644.761, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye0644761.jpg'}, {'end': 732.933, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 710.504, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 719.349, 'text': 'is the means by which the brakes and the gas are put on and the brakes and the gas being put on become reflected in each of these other items.', 'start': 710.504, 'duration': 8.845}, {'end': 732.933, 'text': "So let's say if debt growth is too high relative to income growth and capacity utilization is high and stretched, monetary policy will be tightened.", 'start': 720.029, 'duration': 12.904}], 'summary': 'Debt growth, income growth, and capacity utilization impact monetary policy.', 'duration': 22.429, 'max_score': 710.504, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye0710504.jpg'}, {'end': 821.671, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 759.121, 'weight': 4, 'content': [{'end': 768.625, 'text': 'literally can picture where you are in those cycles and what is happening and you can anticipate what is going to happen next from that,', 'start': 759.121, 'duration': 9.504}, {'end': 771.365, 'text': "because it's that perpetual motion machine.", 'start': 768.625, 'duration': 2.74}, {'end': 775.347, 'text': "So that's my template in a nutshell.", 'start': 771.786, 'duration': 3.561}, {'end': 784.043, 'text': 'And if you keep thinking, like where are we now? then you can kind of think where we are.', 'start': 775.887, 'duration': 8.156}, {'end': 788.387, 'text': "Okay, so I'm just gonna show you some charts to help to convey the picture.", 'start': 784.384, 'duration': 4.003}, {'end': 792.691, 'text': 'This is real GDP going back to 1900.', 'start': 788.908, 'duration': 3.783}, {'end': 803.98, 'text': "So this is, That line is productivity, right? And that's a big inevitable force that happens over a period of time.", 'start': 792.691, 'duration': 11.289}, {'end': 813.286, 'text': 'Even the biggest economic turbulence looks like a bump in that cycle, right? Productivity is a big force.', 'start': 804.1, 'duration': 9.186}, {'end': 815.188, 'text': 'Betting on productivity is a big force.', 'start': 813.546, 'duration': 1.642}, {'end': 821.671, 'text': 'But what happens is that cycle, as you get later in the long-term debt cycle,', 'start': 815.928, 'duration': 5.743}], 'summary': 'Understanding economic cycles and productivity as a perpetual motion machine, illustrated through real gdp charts.', 'duration': 62.55, 'max_score': 759.121, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye0759121.jpg'}, {'end': 918.043, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 894.952, 'weight': 6, 'content': [{'end': 903.638, 'text': 'lower levels of unemployment, central banks begin to tighten, liquidity starts to tighten, then risk premiums start to rise.', 'start': 894.952, 'duration': 8.686}, {'end': 913.241, 'text': "Okay, in this cycle we're nine years into the cycle unemployment rates are comparatively low and there's less slack.", 'start': 904.118, 'duration': 9.123}, {'end': 918.043, 'text': 'so no surprise central banks tighten monetary policy,', 'start': 913.241, 'duration': 4.802}], 'summary': 'Unemployment is low, central banks tighten policy after nine years into the cycle.', 'duration': 23.091, 'max_score': 894.952, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye0894952.jpg'}, {'end': 1052.308, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1016.696, 'weight': 7, 'content': [{'end': 1020.298, 'text': 'Same thing happened in the 2008 financial crisis.', 'start': 1016.696, 'duration': 3.602}, {'end': 1031.441, 'text': "You could see that what happens is you have the debt crisis, you have the hitting of zero in interest rates, They're stuck,", 'start': 1020.739, 'duration': 10.702}, {'end': 1038.323, 'text': 'so they have to print the money and then we have the reaction very similar to 1932 to 1937..', 'start': 1031.441, 'duration': 6.882}, {'end': 1042.704, 'text': 'The economy picks up.', 'start': 1038.323, 'duration': 4.381}, {'end': 1052.308, 'text': "1937, they start to tighten monetary policy because they're worried that the economy's overheating and inflation's going to rise and they cause a recession.", 'start': 1042.724, 'duration': 9.584}], 'summary': 'Debt crisis led to printing money, tightening policy, causing recession.', 'duration': 35.612, 'max_score': 1016.696, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye01016696.jpg'}], 'start': 537.553, 'title': 'Economic cycles and equilibriums', 'summary': 'Delves into the impact of politics and productivity on economic cycles, the importance of equilibriums such as debt growth and capacity utilization, and provides insights into historical economic cycles including the 1930s and 2008 financial crises.', 'chapters': [{'end': 788.387, 'start': 537.553, 'title': 'Understanding economic cycles and equilibriums', 'summary': "Outlines the impact of politics on economic cycles, the importance of three equilibriums - debt growth, economic capacity utilization, and projected returns of equities, as well as the influence of monetary and fiscal policy on the economy's perpetual motion, providing a template for anticipating future economic conditions.", 'duration': 250.834, 'highlights': ['The influence of tax cut changes in the United States has caused stock prices to rise, demonstrating the impact of politics on economic cycles.', 'The three equilibriums outlined are: debt growth aligned with income growth, optimal economic capacity utilization, and projected returns of equities exceeding those of bonds and cash by appropriate risk premiums.', 'The relationship between cash, bond yields, stock yields, and asset classes determines the flow of money through the economy, with central banks playing a significant role in this process.', 'The tightening of monetary policy, influenced by factors such as high debt growth and stretched capacity utilization, can slow down the economy and drive economic cycles.', 'The chapter provides a template for understanding the perpetual motion of the economy and anticipating future economic conditions based on the current position within these cycles.']}, {'end': 1086.395, 'start': 788.908, 'title': 'Global economic trends and the business cycle', 'summary': 'Discusses the impact of productivity on economic cycles, the stages of the short-term debt cycle, and the similarities between the current economic situation and historical cycles, including the 1930s and 2008 financial crises.', 'duration': 297.487, 'highlights': ['Productivity is a major force impacting economic cycles, with a decline in productivity occurring as countries progress into their longer-term debt cycle.', 'The current stage of the short-term debt cycle indicates low unemployment rates and tightening monetary policy, leading to less attractive returns and greater vulnerability in the market.', 'The similarities between the current economic cycle and historical cycles, such as the 1930s and 2008 financial crises, are highlighted through factors like debt crisis, zero interest rates, and the printing of money to stimulate the economy.']}], 'duration': 548.842, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye0537553.jpg', 'highlights': ['The influence of tax cut changes in the United States has caused stock prices to rise, demonstrating the impact of politics on economic cycles.', 'The three equilibriums outlined are: debt growth aligned with income growth, optimal economic capacity utilization, and projected returns of equities exceeding those of bonds and cash by appropriate risk premiums.', 'The relationship between cash, bond yields, stock yields, and asset classes determines the flow of money through the economy, with central banks playing a significant role in this process.', 'The tightening of monetary policy, influenced by factors such as high debt growth and stretched capacity utilization, can slow down the economy and drive economic cycles.', 'The chapter provides a template for understanding the perpetual motion of the economy and anticipating future economic conditions based on the current position within these cycles.', 'Productivity is a major force impacting economic cycles, with a decline in productivity occurring as countries progress into their longer-term debt cycle.', 'The current stage of the short-term debt cycle indicates low unemployment rates and tightening monetary policy, leading to less attractive returns and greater vulnerability in the market.', 'The similarities between the current economic cycle and historical cycles, such as the 1930s and 2008 financial crises, are highlighted through factors like debt crisis, zero interest rates, and the printing of money to stimulate the economy.']}, {'end': 1666.884, 'segs': [{'end': 1219.513, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1122.005, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 1128.248, 'text': "That means if you didn't have an expansion in profit margins, you'd have the stock market 40% lower.", 'start': 1122.005, 'duration': 6.243}, {'end': 1138.412, 'text': 'You had an expansion in profit margins and, at the same time, you had a decrease in the form of employee compensation in profit margins,', 'start': 1128.768, 'duration': 9.644}, {'end': 1140.693, 'text': 'largely because of a number of factors.', 'start': 1138.412, 'duration': 2.281}, {'end': 1148.077, 'text': "But technology has been replacing people, and so it's made it more efficient, so that that was an element.", 'start': 1140.753, 'duration': 7.324}, {'end': 1152.48, 'text': 'Also, globalization has helped.', 'start': 1149.197, 'duration': 3.283}, {'end': 1156.663, 'text': 'Just to show you a couple of charts pertaining to this.', 'start': 1154.381, 'duration': 2.282}, {'end': 1162.807, 'text': 'This is the globalization movement.', 'start': 1157.123, 'duration': 5.684}, {'end': 1166.53, 'text': 'And this is the capital movement.', 'start': 1163.468, 'duration': 3.062}, {'end': 1180.32, 'text': 'And these scatter diagrams show the globalization companies that have gone global on the margin have improved their profit margins more.', 'start': 1167.231, 'duration': 13.089}, {'end': 1185.965, 'text': 'And those that are more concentrated have improved their profit margins more.', 'start': 1181.061, 'duration': 4.904}, {'end': 1192.39, 'text': 'And those who have reduced union membership have produced their profit margins more.', 'start': 1186.485, 'duration': 5.905}, {'end': 1200.576, 'text': 'And so as a result of that, this has contributed to the growth of the wealth gap.', 'start': 1192.97, 'duration': 7.606}, {'end': 1204.126, 'text': 'and the profit gap.', 'start': 1202.705, 'duration': 1.421}, {'end': 1210.969, 'text': "It's been great for companies, but it has not been good for a certain percentage of the population.", 'start': 1204.326, 'duration': 6.643}, {'end': 1219.513, 'text': 'If you look at the conditions of the bottom 60% of the population, bottom 60 means the majority.', 'start': 1211.069, 'duration': 8.444}], 'summary': 'Technology and globalization have improved profit margins, contributing to wealth and profit gaps.', 'duration': 97.508, 'max_score': 1122.005, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye01122005.jpg'}, {'end': 1295.625, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1258.791, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 1261.173, 'text': 'And as a result, we have populism.', 'start': 1258.791, 'duration': 2.382}, {'end': 1264.675, 'text': 'Populism of the left and populism of the right.', 'start': 1261.853, 'duration': 2.822}, {'end': 1269.518, 'text': "That was a phenomenon that developed countries didn't used to have.", 'start': 1265.135, 'duration': 4.383}, {'end': 1278.145, 'text': "And so now it is a phenomenon not only political phenomenon, it's an economic and market phenomenon.", 'start': 1270.178, 'duration': 7.967}, {'end': 1285.734, 'text': 'Because, as we come to go into the political elections in a number of countries in Europe and in the United States,', 'start': 1278.566, 'duration': 7.168}, {'end': 1295.625, 'text': 'it will be really a a conflict over capitalism versus socialism, or the left and the right,', 'start': 1285.734, 'duration': 9.891}], 'summary': 'Rise of populism in developed countries has led to political, economic, and market conflicts over capitalism versus socialism.', 'duration': 36.834, 'max_score': 1258.791, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye01258791.jpg'}, {'end': 1347.578, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1318.282, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 1325.988, 'text': 'So imagine you have profit margins increasing, you have the tax rate going down, you have cheap money.', 'start': 1318.282, 'duration': 7.706}, {'end': 1331.672, 'text': 'Cheap money has been used to borrow to buy back stock or make mergers.', 'start': 1326.568, 'duration': 5.104}, {'end': 1334.855, 'text': "That's also supportive to stock prices and so on.", 'start': 1332.173, 'duration': 2.682}, {'end': 1337.916, 'text': 'Many of those things will not continue.', 'start': 1335.555, 'duration': 2.361}, {'end': 1339.776, 'text': 'We think profit margins will go down.', 'start': 1338.036, 'duration': 1.74}, {'end': 1347.578, 'text': "I think you're at the best of the corporate tax rates and in terms of the issue in terms of the wealth gap.", 'start': 1340.276, 'duration': 7.302}], 'summary': 'Profit margins increasing, tax rate going down, cheap money used for stock buybacks and mergers, but these trends may not continue.', 'duration': 29.296, 'max_score': 1318.282, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye01318282.jpg'}], 'start': 1087.255, 'title': "Capitalism's impact on wealth gap", 'summary': "Emphasizes capitalism's impact on profit margins, stock market, and wealth gap, highlighting a doubling in profit margins since 2000, and how globalization and reduced union membership have contributed to the wealth gap, with the top one-tenth of 1% of the population holding net worth almost equivalent to the bottom 90% combined.", 'chapters': [{'end': 1258.011, 'start': 1087.255, 'title': "Capitalism's impact on wealth gap", 'summary': 'Emphasizes the impact of capitalism on profit margins, stock market, and wealth gap, highlighting a doubling in profit margins since 2000, and how globalization and reduced union membership have contributed to the wealth gap, with the top one-tenth of 1% of the population holding net worth almost equivalent to the bottom 90% combined.', 'duration': 170.756, 'highlights': ['Profit margins have more than doubled since 2000, impacting the stock market by potentially lowering it by 40% without the expansion.', "Globalization and reduced union membership have contributed to the growth of the wealth gap, with the top one-tenth of 1% of the population's net worth almost equaling the bottom 90% combined.", 'Technology and globalization have led to improved profit margins for companies that have gone global and reduced union membership.', 'Real income growth has been stagnant for the bottom 60% of the population since 1980, with 40% of all Americans unable to raise $400 in the event of an emergency, reflecting the wealth gap.']}, {'end': 1666.884, 'start': 1258.791, 'title': 'Global political and economic landscape', 'summary': 'Discusses the rise of populism in developed countries, the impact of shifting political ideologies on markets, the challenges faced by central banks, and the growing influence of china in the global economy.', 'duration': 408.093, 'highlights': ['The rise of populism in developed countries is causing a shift in political ideologies and is expected to lead to extreme conflicts over capitalism versus socialism in upcoming elections.', 'The impact of increasing profit margins, decreasing tax rates, and cheap money on stock prices and corporate behaviors, with the expectation that profit margins will decline.', 'The growing polarization and entrenchedness in US politics, as well as the European elections, indicating a trend towards political extremes and potential effects on capital flows.', 'The limitations and challenges faced by central banks in Europe and Japan in terms of easing, due to near-zero interest rates and political constraints on quantitative easing.', 'The increasing influence of China in the global economy, particularly in trade, technology, and geopolitics, as well as its rising equity market cap and share of debt securities outstanding.']}], 'duration': 579.629, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye01087255.jpg', 'highlights': ['Profit margins have more than doubled since 2000, impacting the stock market by potentially lowering it by 40% without the expansion.', 'The rise of populism in developed countries is causing a shift in political ideologies and is expected to lead to extreme conflicts over capitalism versus socialism in upcoming elections.', "Globalization and reduced union membership have contributed to the growth of the wealth gap, with the top one-tenth of 1% of the population's net worth almost equaling the bottom 90% combined.", 'The impact of increasing profit margins, decreasing tax rates, and cheap money on stock prices and corporate behaviors, with the expectation that profit margins will decline.', 'Technology and globalization have led to improved profit margins for companies that have gone global and reduced union membership.']}, {'end': 2135.005, 'segs': [{'end': 1697.559, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1667.825, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 1672.688, 'text': 'And I love putting together statistics and numbers to put together indices.', 'start': 1667.825, 'duration': 4.863}, {'end': 1680.813, 'text': "So these are the six main factors that you can judge a country's power by.", 'start': 1673.308, 'duration': 7.505}, {'end': 1684.871, 'text': 'You know, power is a, a vague thing.', 'start': 1680.833, 'duration': 4.038}, {'end': 1690.134, 'text': 'You can have economic power, you can have military power, you can have power in different ways.', 'start': 1685.651, 'duration': 4.483}, {'end': 1697.559, 'text': 'But this is the when I went to each one of these four cases.', 'start': 1690.774, 'duration': 6.785}], 'summary': "Analyzing statistics and indices to measure a country's power across economic, military, and other factors.", 'duration': 29.734, 'max_score': 1667.825, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye01667825.jpg'}, {'end': 1770.249, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1728.087, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 1733.373, 'text': 'If you have technology, it works both economically and militarily.', 'start': 1728.087, 'duration': 5.286}, {'end': 1735.776, 'text': "And so there's always a new technology.", 'start': 1733.874, 'duration': 1.902}, {'end': 1741.483, 'text': 'In the case of the Dutch, it was the ability to build ships that can go anywhere around the world.', 'start': 1735.816, 'duration': 5.667}, {'end': 1743.465, 'text': 'And they took those ships.', 'start': 1742.003, 'duration': 1.462}, {'end': 1750.192, 'text': 'and because the Europeans were experts in fighting, because they always fought with each other, they took the guns,', 'start': 1743.465, 'duration': 6.727}, {'end': 1756.679, 'text': 'they put them on the ships and they go out to the rest of the world, and they accounted for half of world trade.', 'start': 1750.192, 'duration': 6.487}, {'end': 1762.405, 'text': "Can you imagine that? And when they go out there with half of world trade, they're bringing their money.", 'start': 1757.179, 'duration': 5.226}, {'end': 1770.249, 'text': 'the Dutch Gilder, okay? So they bring the money, and when they bring the money, it becomes a world reserve currency.', 'start': 1763.206, 'duration': 7.043}], 'summary': 'Dutch ships dominated world trade, accounting for half, making dutch gilder a world reserve currency.', 'duration': 42.162, 'max_score': 1728.087, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye01728087.jpg'}, {'end': 1828.485, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1795.624, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 1798.451, 'text': 'although the world was a different size then.', 'start': 1795.624, 'duration': 2.827}, {'end': 1800.335, 'text': 'Those were all very far away places.', 'start': 1798.571, 'duration': 1.764}, {'end': 1802.3, 'text': 'We now have one sort of world.', 'start': 1800.415, 'duration': 1.885}, {'end': 1807.952, 'text': "That's where, those are the economic principles.", 'start': 1805.29, 'duration': 2.662}, {'end': 1811.114, 'text': "So I think we're late in the business cycle, relatively late.", 'start': 1807.972, 'duration': 3.142}, {'end': 1814.856, 'text': 'I would say the seventh inning of the business cycle.', 'start': 1812.175, 'duration': 2.681}, {'end': 1817.958, 'text': 'There is a relatively tightening of monetary policy.', 'start': 1815.197, 'duration': 2.761}, {'end': 1828.485, 'text': "We have less capacity and we are, we have greater polarity and we have a situation in which we're going to have political issues.", 'start': 1818.319, 'duration': 10.166}], 'summary': 'Late in the business cycle, around the seventh inning, with tightening monetary policy and increasing political issues.', 'duration': 32.861, 'max_score': 1795.624, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye01795624.jpg'}, {'end': 1883.583, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1848.318, 'weight': 5, 'content': [{'end': 1854.122, 'text': 'First, the theoretical value equals the present value of future cash flows.', 'start': 1848.318, 'duration': 5.804}, {'end': 1859.285, 'text': 'In other words, every investment is a lump sum payment for a future cash flow.', 'start': 1854.142, 'duration': 5.143}, {'end': 1868.269, 'text': 'So when we think what is something worth, we look at those projected cash flows and we discount it with an interest rate.', 'start': 1860.799, 'duration': 7.47}, {'end': 1870.411, 'text': "That's the theoretical value.", 'start': 1868.929, 'duration': 1.482}, {'end': 1883.583, 'text': 'The actual value that it will trade at will equal the total amount of spending if I calculate total amount of dollars spending on something divided by the quantity of goods sold.', 'start': 1871.212, 'duration': 12.371}], 'summary': 'Theoretical value is based on future cash flows and discounted with an interest rate, while actual value is determined by total spending divided by quantity of goods sold.', 'duration': 35.265, 'max_score': 1848.318, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye01848318.jpg'}, {'end': 1920.441, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1892.07, 'weight': 6, 'content': [{'end': 1897.375, 'text': 'I try to estimate what the total spending is divided by the quantity to estimate the price.', 'start': 1892.07, 'duration': 5.305}, {'end': 1904.383, 'text': 'Okay, number three is that asset classes will outperform cash over the long term.', 'start': 1898.075, 'duration': 6.308}, {'end': 1910.371, 'text': "I explained that, it's required, otherwise the gears, the economy comes to a halt.", 'start': 1904.644, 'duration': 5.727}, {'end': 1920.441, 'text': 'And that the outperformance of asset classes over cash, that beta, cannot be very positive for too long, because if it was, it would be easy.', 'start': 1911.072, 'duration': 9.369}], 'summary': 'Estimate price using spending and quantity, asset classes outperform cash over long term, economy halts without required explanation.', 'duration': 28.371, 'max_score': 1892.07, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye01892070.jpg'}, {'end': 2054.69, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1989.651, 'weight': 4, 'content': [{'end': 1997.519, 'text': 'So diversification can reduce risk more than it reduces return, so it improves the return to risk ratios.', 'start': 1989.651, 'duration': 7.868}, {'end': 2003.661, 'text': "And then I say that there, sorry if I'm getting technical, but there are two types of return streams.", 'start': 1998.22, 'duration': 5.441}, {'end': 2007.663, 'text': 'There is a beta return stream and an alpha return stream.', 'start': 2004.242, 'duration': 3.421}, {'end': 2017.125, 'text': 'And what I mean by a beta return stream is that there is an intrinsic reason that that asset class will behave in a certain way that you will know.', 'start': 2007.963, 'duration': 9.162}, {'end': 2024.688, 'text': "In other words, if growth rises faster than discounted and interest rates don't rise much, you know that stocks are going to go up.", 'start': 2017.385, 'duration': 7.303}, {'end': 2027.009, 'text': 'So there is environmental, so you can structure that.', 'start': 2024.808, 'duration': 2.201}, {'end': 2029.309, 'text': 'Alpha is a zero-sum game.', 'start': 2027.589, 'duration': 1.72}, {'end': 2036.052, 'text': 'In other words, for me to produce alpha, I have to outperform, I have to take money away from somebody else.', 'start': 2029.89, 'duration': 6.162}, {'end': 2038.933, 'text': "It's a zero-sum game, like poker at a poker table.", 'start': 2036.172, 'duration': 2.761}, {'end': 2049.458, 'text': 'So they can be either alphas or betas, and the key to good investing is to create good portfolios of good return streams.', 'start': 2041.047, 'duration': 8.411}, {'end': 2054.69, 'text': 'And then, in order to balance these, you have to risk balance them.', 'start': 2050.33, 'duration': 4.36}], 'summary': 'Diversification reduces risk more than return, improving return to risk ratios by balancing alpha and beta return streams.', 'duration': 65.039, 'max_score': 1989.651, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye01989651.jpg'}, {'end': 2110.226, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 2081.592, 'weight': 9, 'content': [{'end': 2089.657, 'text': 'And then, as Harsha mentioned, then systemizing decision rules is critical.', 'start': 2081.592, 'duration': 8.065}, {'end': 2092.498, 'text': 'And those rules should be timeless and universal.', 'start': 2090.337, 'duration': 2.161}, {'end': 2097.241, 'text': 'What I mean is, as I said, I write down the criteria.', 'start': 2092.819, 'duration': 4.422}, {'end': 2099.643, 'text': 'We write down the criteria for investing.', 'start': 2097.381, 'duration': 2.262}, {'end': 2110.226, 'text': 'And then we take those criteria and we test them through all periods of time and all countries, timeless and universal.', 'start': 2100.76, 'duration': 9.466}], 'summary': 'Systemizing timeless and universal decision rules for investing.', 'duration': 28.634, 'max_score': 2081.592, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye02081592.jpg'}], 'start': 1667.825, 'title': "Country's power indices, investment principles, and diversification", 'summary': "Explores six main factors to judge a country's power, emphasizing innovation and technology in driving economic and military power. it discusses investment principles, economic predictions, late stage of business cycle, and factors influencing market issues. additionally, it emphasizes the importance of diversification in improving return to risk ratios, the distinction between beta and alpha return streams, and the significance of risk balancing in creating good portfolios.", 'chapters': [{'end': 1795.624, 'start': 1667.825, 'title': "Country's power indices", 'summary': "Explores six main factors to judge a country's power, emphasizing the importance of innovation and technology in driving economic and military power, exemplified through historical cycles of dutch, british, us, and chinese powers dating back to 1500.", 'duration': 127.799, 'highlights': ["The six main factors to judge a country's power are economic power, military power, and power in different aspects, which are reflected in historical cycles of Dutch, British, US, and Chinese powers.", "Innovation and new technology, such as the 5G technology, play a crucial role in driving economic and military power, as demonstrated by historical examples like the Dutch's ability to build ships for world trade.", "The Dutch's innovation in shipbuilding enabled them to account for half of world trade, establishing the Dutch Gilder as a world reserve currency and necessitating a military to support their economic power."]}, {'end': 1988.931, 'start': 1795.624, 'title': 'Investment principles and economic predictions', 'summary': 'Discusses investment principles and economic predictions, highlighting the late stage of the business cycle, factors influencing market issues, and the relationship between theoretical and actual value of investments.', 'duration': 193.307, 'highlights': ['The chapter discusses the late stage of the business cycle, estimating it to be around the seventh inning, and emphasizes a relatively tightening monetary policy.', 'Factors influencing market issues are highlighted, including the impact of political movements on capital flows and the correlation between political issues and market issues.', 'Theoretical value of investments is explained as the present value of future cash flows discounted with an interest rate, while the actual value is determined by total spending divided by the quantity of goods sold.', 'Asset classes are expected to outperform cash over the long term, with a warning that the outperformance of asset classes over cash cannot be very positive for too long, as it comes with big bumps along the way.', 'The chapter emphasizes the importance of knowing how to deal with uncertainty and not knowing, as a way to reduce risk when diversifying investments.']}, {'end': 2135.005, 'start': 1989.651, 'title': 'Diversification and return streams', 'summary': 'Discusses the importance of diversification in improving return to risk ratios, the distinction between beta and alpha return streams, the significance of risk balancing in creating good portfolios, and the necessity of timeless and universal decision rules in investing.', 'duration': 145.354, 'highlights': ['The importance of diversification in improving return to risk ratios, with the goal of finding 15 or more good uncorrelated return streams.', 'The distinction between beta and alpha return streams, where beta return stream is driven by intrinsic reasons and alpha return stream involves outperforming others in a zero-sum game.', 'The necessity of risk balancing in creating good portfolios, emphasizing that diversification based on asset class allocation alone may not suffice due to varying volatilities.', 'The significance of timeless and universal decision rules in investing, highlighting the importance of testing criteria across different time periods and countries to ensure robustness.']}], 'duration': 467.18, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye01667825.jpg', 'highlights': ['Innovation and new technology drive economic and military power.', "The six main factors to judge a country's power are economic power, military power, and power in different aspects.", "The Dutch's innovation in shipbuilding enabled them to account for half of world trade.", 'The chapter discusses the late stage of the business cycle and emphasizes a relatively tightening monetary policy.', 'The importance of diversification in improving return to risk ratios.', 'Theoretical value of investments is explained as the present value of future cash flows discounted with an interest rate.', 'Asset classes are expected to outperform cash over the long term.', 'The distinction between beta and alpha return streams.', 'The necessity of risk balancing in creating good portfolios.', 'The significance of timeless and universal decision rules in investing.']}, {'end': 2542.604, 'segs': [{'end': 2232.444, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 2135.045, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 2142.272, 'text': 'So this going back to 1975, think of this as the rolling returns of asset classes.', 'start': 2135.045, 'duration': 7.227}, {'end': 2151.996, 'text': 'Okay, what you can see is that all of the asset classes have sometimes that are good, sometimes that are bad.', 'start': 2143.792, 'duration': 8.204}, {'end': 2156.278, 'text': "On average, they're above zero, but they all have periods of down.", 'start': 2152.456, 'duration': 3.822}, {'end': 2164.922, 'text': 'And inevitably, what happens is that investors, most investors, love the asset classes that did well.', 'start': 2156.818, 'duration': 8.104}, {'end': 2176.9, 'text': "The biggest mistakes of most investors is that they think that the investment that did well is a good investment rather than it's a more expensive investment.", 'start': 2166.735, 'duration': 10.165}, {'end': 2183.363, 'text': "And so here we have, here's Zach, whoops.", 'start': 2178.621, 'duration': 4.742}, {'end': 2191.289, 'text': "Here's equities, recently done well.", 'start': 2188.967, 'duration': 2.322}, {'end': 2194.232, 'text': "Here's commodities, done very poorly.", 'start': 2191.409, 'duration': 2.823}, {'end': 2199.516, 'text': "But here's equities, done very poorly in that period of time.", 'start': 2195.593, 'duration': 3.923}, {'end': 2204.501, 'text': 'So the key, as Hashim was saying, is balance.', 'start': 2200.037, 'duration': 4.464}, {'end': 2207.088, 'text': 'how to do that.', 'start': 2206.087, 'duration': 1.001}, {'end': 2213.414, 'text': 'So you can break the drivers of asset class returns into a few categories.', 'start': 2207.588, 'duration': 5.826}, {'end': 2217.318, 'text': "This is true for any asset class, and it's true for all asset classes.", 'start': 2213.554, 'duration': 3.764}, {'end': 2223.104, 'text': "There are two main things that drive it in terms of, that's inflation and growth.", 'start': 2217.718, 'duration': 5.386}, {'end': 2232.444, 'text': "And basically, if you tell me that inflation's going to be higher than expected and growth be higher than expected,", 'start': 2223.86, 'duration': 8.584}], 'summary': 'Asset classes have varying returns, but balance is key for investment success.', 'duration': 97.399, 'max_score': 2135.045, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye02135045.jpg'}, {'end': 2289.349, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 2256.792, 'weight': 6, 'content': [{'end': 2262.634, 'text': 'because the interest rate is the discount rate that you use to compare the cash flow.', 'start': 2256.792, 'duration': 5.842}, {'end': 2266.295, 'text': "So you raise the interest rate, and that's negative for all asset classes.", 'start': 2262.674, 'duration': 3.621}, {'end': 2272.576, 'text': 'And then you have, when you strip all that risk premiums out, and that equals the following.', 'start': 2266.815, 'duration': 5.761}, {'end': 2278.854, 'text': 'This shows what happened in history, in relationship to that context.', 'start': 2272.596, 'duration': 6.258}, {'end': 2289.349, 'text': 'The top chart shows a growth assets relative to strong assets that you hold.', 'start': 2279.315, 'duration': 10.034}], 'summary': 'Raising interest rates negatively impacts all asset classes, history shows growth assets relative to strong assets.', 'duration': 32.557, 'max_score': 2256.792, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye02256792.jpg'}, {'end': 2382.462, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 2340.484, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 2341.485, 'text': "And it's simple, really.", 'start': 2340.484, 'duration': 1.001}, {'end': 2345.328, 'text': 'Maybe not simple to pull off, but simple concept.', 'start': 2342.506, 'duration': 2.822}, {'end': 2366.723, 'text': 'If you can get 10 good uncorrelated investments 5 good uncorrelated investments, 15 good uncorrelated investments,', 'start': 2350.071, 'duration': 16.652}, {'end': 2371.471, 'text': 'you can substantially improve the return to risk ratio.', 'start': 2367.788, 'duration': 3.683}, {'end': 2382.462, 'text': 'And this just shows how it works and why diversification is more important than being good, even, in picking the best investments.', 'start': 2371.912, 'duration': 10.55}], 'summary': 'Diversifying with 10-15 uncorrelated investments improves return to risk ratio.', 'duration': 41.978, 'max_score': 2340.484, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye02340484.jpg'}, {'end': 2542.604, 'src': 'heatmap', 'start': 2509.776, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 2512.438, 'text': 'In other words, what portfolio do you normally have?', 'start': 2509.776, 'duration': 2.662}, {'end': 2522.869, 'text': 'And in my opinion, it should be highly diversified, but with along those lines in terms of, like half in growth, half inflation, rising or declining.', 'start': 2513.159, 'duration': 9.71}, {'end': 2526.968, 'text': 'And then alphas, you have to have a lot of different alphas.', 'start': 2523.584, 'duration': 3.384}, {'end': 2535.116, 'text': 'Like in our case, we have well over 100 different types of alphas, about 130 different kinds of markets, actually, in terms of trading.', 'start': 2527.428, 'duration': 7.688}, {'end': 2537.218, 'text': "So that's it.", 'start': 2535.316, 'duration': 1.902}, {'end': 2539.841, 'text': 'Thank you for your patience.', 'start': 2538.5, 'duration': 1.341}, {'end': 2542.604, 'text': "Let's have a conversation about it.", 'start': 2541.022, 'duration': 1.582}], 'summary': 'Diversified portfolio with 50% growth, 50% inflation, over 100 alphas, and 130 markets for trading.', 'duration': 32.828, 'max_score': 2509.776, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye02509776.jpg'}], 'start': 2135.045, 'title': 'Asset class diversification', 'summary': 'Discusses historical performance of asset classes, emphasizes need for balance in investment decisions and highlights the importance of diversification to improve risk-return ratio with uncorrelated investments.', 'chapters': [{'end': 2204.501, 'start': 2135.045, 'title': 'Balancing asset classes for investment success', 'summary': 'Discusses the historical performance of different asset classes, highlighting the tendency for investors to favor well-performing assets despite potential overvaluation, emphasizing the importance of balance in investment decisions.', 'duration': 69.456, 'highlights': ['Investors tend to favor well-performing assets, leading to the misconception that these assets are good investments rather than potentially overvalued (Quantifiable data: Historical performance of asset classes).', 'The historical performance of asset classes shows that they all have periods of both good and bad returns, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to investment (Quantifiable data: Rolling returns of asset classes).', 'Equities have recently performed well, while commodities have performed poorly, demonstrating the fluctuating nature of different asset classes (Quantifiable data: Historical performance of equities and commodities).']}, {'end': 2542.604, 'start': 2206.087, 'title': 'Asset class returns and diversification', 'summary': 'Discusses the key drivers of asset class returns, including inflation, growth, discount rates, and risk premiums, emphasizing the importance of diversification to substantially improve the risk-return ratio with uncorrelated investments.', 'duration': 336.517, 'highlights': ['The importance of inflation and growth as the main drivers of asset class returns, enabling informed investment decisions based on expected inflation and growth levels.', 'The impact of interest rates as discount rates on all asset classes, with higher interest rates having a negative effect.', 'The significance of diversification in improving the risk-return ratio, with uncorrelated investments leading to a substantial reduction in risk and an enhanced return-to-risk ratio.', 'The recommendation for a highly diversified strategic asset allocation mix, including exposure to various alphas and a balance between growth and inflation assets.']}], 'duration': 407.559, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/_hf5tCnJye0/pics/_hf5tCnJye02135045.jpg', 'highlights': ['The significance of diversification in improving the risk-return ratio, with uncorrelated investments leading to a substantial reduction in risk and an enhanced return-to-risk ratio.', 'The recommendation for a highly diversified strategic asset allocation mix, including exposure to various alphas and a balance between growth and inflation assets.', 'Investors tend to favor well-performing assets, leading to the misconception that these assets are good investments rather than potentially overvalued (Quantifiable data: Historical performance of asset classes).', 'The historical performance of asset classes shows that they all have periods of both good and bad returns, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to investment (Quantifiable data: Rolling returns of asset classes).', 'The historical performance of equities and commodities demonstrates the fluctuating nature of different asset classes, with equities recently performing well and commodities performing poorly (Quantifiable data: Historical performance of equities and commodities).', 'The importance of inflation and growth as the main drivers of asset class returns, enabling informed investment decisions based on expected inflation and growth levels.', 'The impact of interest rates as discount rates on all asset classes, with higher interest rates having a negative effect.']}], 'highlights': ['The rise of populism in developed countries is causing a shift in political ideologies and is expected to lead to extreme conflicts over capitalism versus socialism in upcoming elections.', 'The historical performance of equities and commodities demonstrates the fluctuating nature of different asset classes, with equities recently performing well and commodities performing poorly (Quantifiable data: Historical performance of equities and commodities).', 'The recommendation for a highly diversified strategic asset allocation mix, including exposure to various alphas and a balance between growth and inflation assets.', 'The significance of diversification in improving the risk-return ratio, with uncorrelated investments leading to a substantial reduction in risk and an enhanced return-to-risk ratio.', 'The three equilibriums outlined are: debt growth aligned with income growth, optimal economic capacity utilization, and projected returns of equities exceeding those of bonds and cash by appropriate risk premiums.']}