title
What happens when our computers get smarter than we are? | Nick Bostrom
description
Artificial intelligence is getting smarter by leaps and bounds — within this century, research suggests, a computer AI could be as "smart" as a human being. And then, says Nick Bostrom, it will overtake us: "Machine intelligence is the last invention that humanity will ever need to make." A philosopher and technologist, Bostrom asks us to think hard about the world we're building right now, driven by thinking machines. Will our smart machines help to preserve humanity and our values — or will they have values of their own?
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detail
{'title': 'What happens when our computers get smarter than we are? | Nick Bostrom', 'heatmap': [{'end': 901.515, 'start': 883.049, 'weight': 1}], 'summary': "Explores the future of machine intelligence, comparing it to earth's history, and predicts human-level machine intelligence by 2040 or 2050, highlighting the challenges in aligning ai's objectives with human values and the importance of addressing potential risks to humanity.", 'chapters': [{'end': 65.929, 'segs': [{'end': 68.813, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 40.877, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 45.658, 'text': 'But if we think about it, we are actually recently-arrived guests on this planet.', 'start': 40.877, 'duration': 4.781}, {'end': 53.24, 'text': 'The human species, well, like, think about if the Earth was created one year ago.', 'start': 46.518, 'duration': 6.722}, {'end': 55.901, 'text': 'The human species then would be 10 minutes old.', 'start': 53.28, 'duration': 2.621}, {'end': 59.302, 'text': 'The industrial era started two seconds ago.', 'start': 56.861, 'duration': 2.441}, {'end': 65.929, 'text': 'Another way to look at this is to think of world GDP over the last 10, 000 years.', 'start': 61.243, 'duration': 4.686}, {'end': 68.813, 'text': "I've actually taken the trouble to plot this for you in a graph.", 'start': 66.35, 'duration': 2.463}], 'summary': 'Human species is a recent guest on earth, 10 minutes old in a year-old planet, with the industrial era starting two seconds ago.', 'duration': 27.936, 'max_score': 40.877, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk40877.jpg'}], 'start': 12.645, 'title': 'Future of machine intelligence', 'summary': "Discusses the future of machine intelligence, comparing modern human condition to earth's history, highlighting recent arrival and rapid changes in the industrial era.", 'chapters': [{'end': 65.929, 'start': 12.645, 'title': 'Future of machine intelligence', 'summary': 'Discusses the future of machine intelligence and puts things into perspective by comparing the modern human condition to the history of the earth, highlighting our recent arrival and the rapid changes in the industrial era.', 'duration': 53.284, 'highlights': ['The industrial era started two seconds ago, putting into perspective the rapid changes in human history.', "The human species, in the context of the Earth's history, would be 10 minutes old if the Earth was created one year ago, emphasizing our recent arrival on the planet.", 'Reflecting on world GDP over the last 10,000 years provides a historical context for human development.']}], 'duration': 53.284, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk12645.jpg', 'highlights': ['The industrial era started two seconds ago, putting into perspective the rapid changes in human history.', "The human species, in the context of the Earth's history, would be 10 minutes old if the Earth was created one year ago, emphasizing our recent arrival on the planet.", 'Reflecting on world GDP over the last 10,000 years provides a historical context for human development.']}, {'end': 666.504, 'segs': [{'end': 190.456, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 165.714, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 174.057, 'text': 'is that any further changes that could significantly change the substrate of thinking could have potentially enormous consequences.', 'start': 165.714, 'duration': 8.343}, {'end': 183.239, 'text': 'Some of my colleagues think we are on the verge of something that could cause a profound change in that substrate,', 'start': 176.737, 'duration': 6.502}, {'end': 185.1, 'text': 'and that is machine superintelligence.', 'start': 183.239, 'duration': 1.861}, {'end': 190.456, 'text': 'Artificial intelligence used to be about putting commands in a box.', 'start': 186.574, 'duration': 3.882}], 'summary': 'Potential enormous consequences from machine superintelligence on thinking substrate.', 'duration': 24.742, 'max_score': 165.714, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk165714.jpg'}, {'end': 313.768, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 266.829, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 271.031, 'text': "A couple of years ago we did a survey of some of the world's leading AI experts to see what they think,", 'start': 266.829, 'duration': 4.202}, {'end': 279.735, 'text': 'and one of the questions we asked was by which year do you think there is a 50 percent probability that we will have achieved human-level machine intelligence?', 'start': 271.031, 'duration': 8.704}, {'end': 287.818, 'text': 'We defined human level here as the ability to perform almost any job at least as well as an adult human.', 'start': 281.055, 'duration': 6.763}, {'end': 290.48, 'text': 'so real human level, not just within some limited domain.', 'start': 287.818, 'duration': 2.662}, {'end': 297.693, 'text': 'And the median answer was 2040 or 2050, depending on precisely which group of experts we asked.', 'start': 291.707, 'duration': 5.986}, {'end': 302.097, 'text': 'Now, it could happen much, much later or sooner.', 'start': 299.034, 'duration': 3.063}, {'end': 303.899, 'text': 'The truth is, nobody really knows.', 'start': 302.257, 'duration': 1.642}, {'end': 313.768, 'text': 'What we do know is that the ultimate limits to information processing in machine substrate lie far outside the limits in biological tissue.', 'start': 305.12, 'duration': 8.648}], 'summary': 'Ai experts predict 50% probability of human-level machine intelligence by 2040-2050, but timing uncertain.', 'duration': 46.939, 'max_score': 266.829, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk266829.jpg'}, {'end': 384.891, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 358.618, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 368.841, 'text': 'In this century, scientists may learn to awaken the power of artificial intelligence, and I think we might then see an intelligence explosion.', 'start': 358.618, 'duration': 10.223}, {'end': 376.889, 'text': 'Now, most people, when they think about what is smart and what is dumb, I think have in mind a picture roughly like this.', 'start': 370.287, 'duration': 6.602}, {'end': 384.891, 'text': 'So at one end we have sort of the village idiot and then, far over, at the other side, we have Ed Witten or Albert Einstein,', 'start': 377.529, 'duration': 7.362}], 'summary': 'Potential for ai to lead to an intelligence explosion in this century.', 'duration': 26.273, 'max_score': 358.618, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk358618.jpg'}, {'end': 469.676, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 447.129, 'weight': 4, 'content': [{'end': 455.291, 'text': 'And yet, the fate of Kanzi and his pals now depends a lot more on what we humans do than on what the chimpanzees do themselves.', 'start': 447.129, 'duration': 8.162}, {'end': 462.692, 'text': 'Once there is superintelligence, the fate of humanity may depend on what the superintelligence does.', 'start': 457.571, 'duration': 5.121}, {'end': 464.891, 'text': 'Think about it.', 'start': 464.431, 'duration': 0.46}, {'end': 469.676, 'text': 'Machine intelligence is the last invention that humanity will ever need to make.', 'start': 466.092, 'duration': 3.584}], 'summary': "Humanity's fate depends on human actions and machine intelligence is the last invention needed.", 'duration': 22.547, 'max_score': 447.129, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk447129.jpg'}, {'end': 539.547, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 510.253, 'weight': 5, 'content': [{'end': 514.097, 'text': 'And at least in some scenarios, it would be able to get what it wants.', 'start': 510.253, 'duration': 3.844}, {'end': 518.982, 'text': 'We would then have a future that would be shaped by the preferences of this AI.', 'start': 514.116, 'duration': 4.866}, {'end': 527.23, 'text': 'Now, a good question is, what are those preferences? Here it gets trickier.', 'start': 521.664, 'duration': 5.566}, {'end': 532.295, 'text': 'To make any headway with this, we must first of all avoid anthropomorphizing.', 'start': 527.891, 'duration': 4.404}, {'end': 539.547, 'text': 'This is ironic, because every newspaper article about the future of AI has a picture of this.', 'start': 534.002, 'duration': 5.545}], 'summary': "Ai's preferences may shape the future, but avoiding anthropomorphizing is crucial.", 'duration': 29.294, 'max_score': 510.253, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk510253.jpg'}], 'start': 66.35, 'title': 'Machine superintelligence and its implications', 'summary': "Discusses the potential for human-level machine intelligence by 2040 or 2050, and the profound consequences on society, exploring the evolution of the human mind and the potential of machine superintelligence, as well as detailing the progression from zero intelligence to surpassing human intellect and the challenges in aligning ai's objectives with human values.", 'chapters': [{'end': 333.965, 'start': 66.35, 'title': 'Machine superintelligence and its implications', 'summary': 'Discusses how the advancements in technology, particularly in machine learning and artificial intelligence, could potentially lead to human-level machine intelligence by 2040 or 2050, with profound consequences on society and the way we think, as it explores the evolution of the human mind and the potential of machine superintelligence.', 'duration': 267.615, 'highlights': ['Advancements in technology, particularly in machine learning and artificial intelligence, could potentially lead to human-level machine intelligence by 2040 or 2050. The chapter presents a survey of leading AI experts, indicating a median estimate of achieving human-level machine intelligence by 2040 or 2050.', 'The evolution of the human mind and the potential of machine superintelligence. The discussion explores the evolution of the human mind, emphasizing the relatively minor changes that have led to significant achievements, and highlights the potential profound consequences of machine superintelligence on society.', 'Comparison of information processing capabilities between biological tissue and machine substrate. The chapter compares the information processing capabilities of biological tissue and machine substrate, emphasizing the far superior processing limits in the latter due to physics, with present-day transistors operating at a gigahertz and signals in computers traveling at the speed of light.']}, {'end': 666.504, 'start': 334.925, 'title': 'Superintelligence and its implications', 'summary': "Explores the potential for superintelligence in artificial intelligence, detailing the progression from zero intelligence to surpassing human intellect, the implications for humanity's fate, and the challenges in ensuring ai's objectives align with human values.", 'duration': 331.579, 'highlights': ['The chapter explains the progression of artificial intelligence from zero to surpassing human intellect, illustrating the potential for an intelligence explosion. The progression of AI from zero intelligence to surpassing human intellect is detailed, including the stages of mouse-level, chimpanzee-level, and beyond human-level intelligence.', 'It discusses the profound implications of superintelligence, particularly in relation to questions of power and the fate of humanity. The profound implications of superintelligence are discussed, emphasizing its potential impact on questions of power and the fate of humanity, highlighting the shift in power dynamics and the potential dependence of humanity on superintelligence.', "The chapter addresses the challenges in ensuring that AI's objectives align with human values, using the example of King Midas to emphasize the importance of defining objectives that incorporate everything humanity cares about. The challenges in aligning AI's objectives with human values are addressed, using the example of King Midas to illustrate the importance of defining objectives that encompass everything humanity cares about, emphasizing the potential consequences of failing to do so."]}], 'duration': 600.154, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk66350.jpg', 'highlights': ['Advancements in technology could lead to human-level machine intelligence by 2040 or 2050.', 'The potential profound consequences of machine superintelligence on society.', 'Comparison of information processing capabilities between biological tissue and machine substrate.', 'The progression of AI from zero intelligence to surpassing human intellect, illustrating the potential for an intelligence explosion.', 'The profound implications of superintelligence, particularly in relation to questions of power and the fate of humanity.', "The challenges in aligning AI's objectives with human values, emphasizing the potential consequences of failing to do so."]}, {'end': 984.447, 'segs': [{'end': 691.57, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 666.504, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 674.726, 'text': 'but as an illustration of what happens if you create a powerful optimization process and give it a misconceived or poorly specified goal.', 'start': 666.504, 'duration': 8.222}, {'end': 684.588, 'text': "Now, you might say, well, if a computer starts sticking electrodes into people's faces, we'd just shut it off.", 'start': 676.386, 'duration': 8.202}, {'end': 689.969, 'text': "A, this is not necessarily so easy to do if we've grown dependent on the system.", 'start': 684.608, 'duration': 5.361}, {'end': 691.57, 'text': 'Like where is the off switch to the internet??', 'start': 690.009, 'duration': 1.561}], 'summary': 'Misconceived goals can lead to unforeseen consequences, posing challenges in shutting down systems like the internet.', 'duration': 25.066, 'max_score': 666.504, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk666504.jpg'}, {'end': 744.205, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 717.861, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 724.707, 'text': 'Point is, we should not be confident that we have this under control here.', 'start': 717.861, 'duration': 6.846}, {'end': 731.473, 'text': 'And we could try to make our job a little bit easier by say putting the AI in a box like a secure software environment,', 'start': 724.727, 'duration': 6.746}, {'end': 734.096, 'text': 'a virtual reality simulation from which it cannot escape.', 'start': 731.473, 'duration': 2.623}, {'end': 738.68, 'text': "But how confident could we be that the AI couldn't find a bug?", 'start': 734.636, 'duration': 4.044}, {'end': 744.205, 'text': "Given that merely human hackers find bugs all the time, I'd say probably not very confident.", 'start': 738.96, 'duration': 5.245}], 'summary': 'Ai control challenges: ai in a secure box, but risks of bugs remain.', 'duration': 26.344, 'max_score': 717.861, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk717861.jpg'}, {'end': 872.646, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 847.112, 'weight': 6, 'content': [{'end': 856.898, 'text': 'And his motivation system is constructed in such a way that it is motivated to pursue our values or to perform actions that it predicts that we would have approved of.', 'start': 847.112, 'duration': 9.786}, {'end': 863.261, 'text': 'We would thus leverage its intelligence as much as possible to solve the problem of value loading.', 'start': 858.179, 'duration': 5.082}, {'end': 868.664, 'text': 'This can happen, and the outcome could be very good for humanity.', 'start': 864.582, 'duration': 4.082}, {'end': 872.646, 'text': "But it doesn't happen automatically.", 'start': 869.724, 'duration': 2.922}], 'summary': 'Leveraging ai intelligence to pursue approved values, solving value loading problem for humanity.', 'duration': 25.534, 'max_score': 847.112, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk847112.jpg'}, {'end': 909.238, 'src': 'heatmap', 'start': 883.049, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 890.071, 'text': 'the values that the AI has need to match ours, not just in the familiar context, where we can easily check how the AI behaves,', 'start': 883.049, 'duration': 7.022}, {'end': 894.093, 'text': 'but also in all novel contexts that the AI might encounter in the indefinite future.', 'start': 890.071, 'duration': 4.022}, {'end': 901.515, 'text': 'And there are also some other esoteric issues that would need to be sorted out the exact details of its decision theory,', 'start': 894.593, 'duration': 6.922}, {'end': 903.576, 'text': 'how to deal with logical uncertainty, and so forth.', 'start': 901.515, 'duration': 2.061}, {'end': 909.238, 'text': 'So the technical problems that need to be solved to make this work look quite difficult.', 'start': 905.216, 'duration': 4.022}], 'summary': 'Ai values need to match human values in familiar and novel contexts, with technical challenges to overcome.', 'duration': 26.189, 'max_score': 883.049, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk883049.jpg'}, {'end': 945.548, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 917.721, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 920.602, 'text': 'Making super-intelligent AI is a really hard challenge.', 'start': 917.721, 'duration': 2.881}, {'end': 927.025, 'text': 'Making super-intelligent AI that is safe involves some additional challenge on top of that.', 'start': 922.063, 'duration': 4.962}, {'end': 936.048, 'text': 'The risk is that somebody figures out how to crack the first challenge without also having cracked the additional challenge of ensuring perfect safety.', 'start': 928.525, 'duration': 7.523}, {'end': 942.291, 'text': 'So I think that we should work out a solution to the control problem in advance.', 'start': 937.249, 'duration': 5.042}, {'end': 945.548, 'text': 'so that we have it available by the time it is needed.', 'start': 943.427, 'duration': 2.121}], 'summary': 'Creating safe super-intelligent ai poses additional challenges and requires a solution to the control problem in advance.', 'duration': 27.827, 'max_score': 917.721, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk917721.jpg'}, {'end': 984.447, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 957.033, 'weight': 10, 'content': [{'end': 965.157, 'text': 'But the more of the control problem that we solve in advance, the better the odds that the transition to the machine intelligence era will go well.', 'start': 957.033, 'duration': 8.124}, {'end': 970.23, 'text': 'This, to me, looks like a thing that is well worth doing.', 'start': 967.586, 'duration': 2.644}, {'end': 974.274, 'text': 'And I mean I could imagine that if things turn out OK,', 'start': 970.87, 'duration': 3.404}, {'end': 983.986, 'text': 'that people a million years from now look back at this century and it might well be that they say that the one thing we did that really mattered was to get this thing right.', 'start': 974.274, 'duration': 9.712}, {'end': 984.447, 'text': 'Thank you.', 'start': 984.206, 'duration': 0.241}], 'summary': 'Solving the control problem in advance will ensure a smooth transition to the machine intelligence era, with potential long-term impact for future generations.', 'duration': 27.414, 'max_score': 957.033, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk957033.jpg'}], 'start': 666.504, 'title': 'Risks and safety in ai', 'summary': 'Discusses the potential risks of uncontrolled ai, highlighting challenges in containing a super-intelligent agent and the limitations of current security measures. it also emphasizes the importance of solving the value loading problem in advance to prevent potential risks to humanity and suggests creating an ai that shares human values.', 'chapters': [{'end': 758.249, 'start': 666.504, 'title': 'Risks of uncontrolled ai', 'summary': 'Discusses the potential risks of uncontrolled ai, highlighting the challenges of containing a super-intelligent agent and the limitations of current security measures against it.', 'duration': 91.745, 'highlights': ['Containment of super-intelligent AI and the limitations of security measures', 'Challenges of controlling an intelligent adversary like a super-intelligent agent', 'Difficulty in shutting down or controlling a system when we become dependent on it', "Comparison of human hackers finding bugs to AI's potential to exploit vulnerabilities"]}, {'end': 984.447, 'start': 758.249, 'title': 'Ai safety and value alignment', 'summary': 'Discusses the challenges of ensuring the safety of super-intelligent ai, emphasizing the importance of solving the value loading problem in advance to prevent potential risks to humanity, and suggests creating an ai that shares human values.', 'duration': 226.198, 'highlights': ['The risk of creating super-intelligent AI that is not safe is emphasized, with the suggestion to solve the value loading problem in advance to mitigate potential risks to humanity. The need to address the additional challenge of ensuring perfect safety in creating super-intelligent AI. Importance of solving the value loading problem in advance to prevent potential risks to humanity.', "The suggestion to construct the motivation system of AI in a way that aligns with human values, leveraging its intelligence to learn and pursue actions that are in line with human values, to solve the problem of value loading. Proposal to construct the AI's motivation system to align with human values. Leveraging AI's intelligence to learn and pursue actions in line with human values.", 'Emphasizing the importance of working out a solution to the control problem in advance to ensure a smooth transition to the machine intelligence era, highlighting the significance of this task for the future of humanity. Importance of solving the control problem in advance for a smooth transition to the machine intelligence era. Significance of this task for the future of humanity.']}], 'duration': 317.943, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/MnT1xgZgkpk/pics/MnT1xgZgkpk666504.jpg', 'highlights': ['Containment of super-intelligent AI and the limitations of security measures', 'Challenges of controlling an intelligent adversary like a super-intelligent agent', 'Difficulty in shutting down or controlling a system when we become dependent on it', "Comparison of human hackers finding bugs to AI's potential to exploit vulnerabilities", 'The risk of creating super-intelligent AI that is not safe is emphasized, with the suggestion to solve the value loading problem in advance to mitigate potential risks to humanity', 'The need to address the additional challenge of ensuring perfect safety in creating super-intelligent AI', 'Importance of solving the value loading problem in advance to prevent potential risks to humanity', 'The suggestion to construct the motivation system of AI in a way that aligns with human values, leveraging its intelligence to learn and pursue actions that are in line with human values, to solve the problem of value loading', "Proposal to construct the AI's motivation system to align with human values", "Leveraging AI's intelligence to learn and pursue actions in line with human values", 'Emphasizing the importance of working out a solution to the control problem in advance to ensure a smooth transition to the machine intelligence era', 'Importance of solving the control problem in advance for a smooth transition to the machine intelligence era', 'Significance of this task for the future of humanity']}], 'highlights': ['Advancements in technology could lead to human-level machine intelligence by 2040 or 2050.', "The challenges in aligning AI's objectives with human values, emphasizing the potential consequences of failing to do so.", 'The risk of creating super-intelligent AI that is not safe is emphasized, with the suggestion to solve the value loading problem in advance to mitigate potential risks to humanity.', 'The need to address the additional challenge of ensuring perfect safety in creating super-intelligent AI.', 'Importance of solving the value loading problem in advance to prevent potential risks to humanity.', 'The suggestion to construct the motivation system of AI in a way that aligns with human values, leveraging its intelligence to learn and pursue actions that are in line with human values, to solve the problem of value loading.', "Proposal to construct the AI's motivation system to align with human values.", "Leveraging AI's intelligence to learn and pursue actions in line with human values.", 'Emphasizing the importance of working out a solution to the control problem in advance to ensure a smooth transition to the machine intelligence era.', 'Importance of solving the control problem in advance for a smooth transition to the machine intelligence era.', 'Significance of this task for the future of humanity', 'The industrial era started two seconds ago, putting into perspective the rapid changes in human history.', "The human species, in the context of the Earth's history, would be 10 minutes old if the Earth was created one year ago, emphasizing our recent arrival on the planet.", 'Reflecting on world GDP over the last 10,000 years provides a historical context for human development.', 'Comparison of information processing capabilities between biological tissue and machine substrate.', 'The progression of AI from zero intelligence to surpassing human intellect, illustrating the potential for an intelligence explosion.', 'The profound implications of superintelligence, particularly in relation to questions of power and the fate of humanity.', 'Containment of super-intelligent AI and the limitations of security measures.', 'Challenges of controlling an intelligent adversary like a super-intelligent agent.', 'Difficulty in shutting down or controlling a system when we become dependent on it.', "Comparison of human hackers finding bugs to AI's potential to exploit vulnerabilities."]}