title
Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity | Lex Fridman Podcast #292

description
Robin Hanson is a professor at George Mason University and researcher at Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: - Lambda: https://lambdalabs.com/lex - Audible: https://audible.com/lex - BiOptimizers: http://www.magbreakthrough.com/lex to get 10% off - BetterHelp: https://betterhelp.com/lex to get 10% off - ExpressVPN: https://expressvpn.com/lexpod and use code LexPod to get 3 months free EPISODE LINKS: Robin's Twitter: https://twitter.com/robinhanson Robin's Website: https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson Grabby Aliens (paper): https://grabbyaliens.com/paper The Elephant in the Brain (book): https://amazon.com/dp/0197551955/ref=nosim?tag=turingmachi08-20 The Age of Em (book): https://amazon.com/dp/0198817827/ref=nosim?tag=turingmachi08-20 PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ Full episodes playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4 Clips playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOeciFP3CBCIEElOJeitOr41 OUTLINE: 0:00 - Introduction 1:52 - Grabby aliens 39:36 - War and competition 45:10 - Global government 58:01 - Humanity's future 1:08:02 - Hello aliens 1:35:06 - UFO sightings 1:59:43 - Conspiracy theories 2:08:01 - Elephant in the brain 2:21:32 - Medicine 2:34:01 - Institutions 3:00:54 - Physics 3:05:46 - Artificial intelligence 3:23:35 - Economics 3:26:56 - Political science 3:32:45 - Advice for young people 3:41:36 - Darkest moments 3:44:37 - Love and loss 3:53:59 - Immortality 3:57:56 - Simulation hypothesis 4:08:13 - Meaning of life SOCIAL: - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman - Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/lexfridman - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman

detail
{'title': 'Robin Hanson: Alien Civilizations, UFOs, and the Future of Humanity | Lex Fridman Podcast #292', 'heatmap': [{'end': 15197.883, 'start': 15058.762, 'weight': 1}], 'summary': "Robin hanson discusses the existence and evolution of aliens in space-time, projecting isolated galaxy clusters in 100-150 billion years, presents a mathematical model to distinguish between 'loud' and 'quiet' aliens, and explores the impact of limiting interstellar expansion for global governance and the potential changes in human civilization and values due to interstellar colonization.", 'chapters': [{'end': 281.299, 'segs': [{'end': 41.798, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 0.129, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 5.412, 'text': 'we can actually figure out where are the aliens out there in space-time by being clever about the few things we can see,', 'start': 0.129, 'duration': 5.283}, {'end': 6.532, 'text': 'one of which is our current date.', 'start': 5.412, 'duration': 1.12}, {'end': 14.476, 'text': 'And so, now that you have this living cosmology, we can tell the story that the universe starts out empty and then, at some point,', 'start': 7.253, 'duration': 7.223}, {'end': 20, 'text': 'things like us appear very primitive, and then some of those stop being quiet and expand.', 'start': 14.476, 'duration': 5.524}, {'end': 23.262, 'text': 'And then for a few billion years, they expand and then they meet each other.', 'start': 20.54, 'duration': 2.722}, {'end': 27.506, 'text': 'And then for the next hundred billion years, they commune with each other.', 'start': 23.643, 'duration': 3.863}, {'end': 28.787, 'text': 'That is.', 'start': 28.367, 'duration': 0.42}, {'end': 34.652, 'text': 'the usual models of cosmology say that in roughly 100, 150 billion years,', 'start': 28.787, 'duration': 5.865}, {'end': 41.798, 'text': "the expansion of the universe will happen so much that all you'll have left is some galaxy clusters that are sort of disconnected from each other.", 'start': 34.652, 'duration': 7.146}], 'summary': "Using current date, we can predict alien presence in space-time and anticipate universe's future expansion and interactions.", 'duration': 41.669, 'max_score': 0.129, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk129.jpg'}, {'end': 149.291, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 119.797, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 124.459, 'text': 'So what are grabby aliens? Grabby aliens expand..', 'start': 119.797, 'duration': 4.662}, {'end': 128.078, 'text': 'fast into the universe and they change stuff.', 'start': 125.677, 'duration': 2.401}, {'end': 130.4, 'text': "That's the key concept.", 'start': 129.318, 'duration': 1.082}, {'end': 133.762, 'text': 'So if they were out there, we would notice.', 'start': 130.699, 'duration': 3.063}, {'end': 134.942, 'text': "That's the key idea.", 'start': 134.062, 'duration': 0.88}, {'end': 138.885, 'text': 'So the question is where are the grabby aliens?', 'start': 135.943, 'duration': 2.942}, {'end': 141.686, 'text': "So Fermi's question is where are the aliens?", 'start': 139.225, 'duration': 2.461}, {'end': 144.508, 'text': 'And we could vary that in two terms, right?', 'start': 142.067, 'duration': 2.441}, {'end': 149.291, 'text': 'Where are the quiet hard to see aliens and where are the big loud grabby aliens?', 'start': 144.588, 'duration': 4.703}], 'summary': "Grabby aliens rapidly expand and change the universe, yet remain undetected. fermi's question: where are they?", 'duration': 29.494, 'max_score': 119.797, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk119797.jpg'}, {'end': 261.721, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 237.692, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 246.959, 'text': "Are you using this kind of in a broad philosophical sense, or there's a specific thing that it means to be loud in this universe of ours??", 'start': 237.692, 'duration': 9.267}, {'end': 251.943, 'text': 'My co-authors and I put together a paper with a particular mathematical model,', 'start': 247.42, 'duration': 4.523}, {'end': 257.473, 'text': 'And so we use the term grabby aliens to describe that more particular model.', 'start': 253.064, 'duration': 4.409}, {'end': 261.721, 'text': "And the idea is it's a more particular model of the general concept of loud.", 'start': 257.793, 'duration': 3.928}], 'summary': "A paper presents a mathematical model of 'grabby aliens' to describe the concept of 'loud.'", 'duration': 24.029, 'max_score': 237.692, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk237692.jpg'}], 'start': 0.129, 'title': 'Aliens in space-time and their impact', 'summary': "Discusses how a living cosmology can help determine the existence and evolution of aliens in space-time, projecting isolated galaxy clusters in 100-150 billion years. it also explores the concept of 'grabby aliens' and presents a mathematical model to distinguish between 'loud' and 'quiet' aliens.", 'chapters': [{'end': 41.798, 'start': 0.129, 'title': 'Aliens in space-time', 'summary': "Discusses how a living cosmology can help determine the existence and evolution of aliens in space-time based on the current date, describing the universe's journey from emptiness to the eventual meeting and communion of primitive beings, with a projected future of isolated galaxy clusters in 100-150 billion years.", 'duration': 41.669, 'highlights': ['The expansion of the universe will lead to isolated galaxy clusters in 100-150 billion years.', "The universe's journey from emptiness to the eventual meeting and communion of primitive beings is described.", 'A living cosmology can help determine the existence and evolution of aliens in space-time based on the current date.']}, {'end': 281.299, 'start': 41.858, 'title': 'Grabby aliens and their impact', 'summary': "Discusses the concept of 'grabby aliens' who aggressively interact and change the environment as they expand into the universe, presenting a mathematical model to distinguish between 'loud' and 'quiet' aliens.", 'duration': 239.441, 'highlights': ["The concept of 'grabby aliens' revolves around the idea that they aggressively interact and change the environment as they expand into the universe, making them noticeable and distinct from 'quiet' aliens.", "The distinction between 'grabby' and 'loud' aliens is clarified using a particular mathematical model, where 'loud' refers to the general concept of being obvious, while 'grabby' is a more specific technical term.", 'The chapter introduces the idea that grabby aliens would aggressively interact and change the environment, leading to the visible impact of their presence in the form of large spheres of different activity in the sky.', 'The conversation delves into the potential impact of grabby aliens on the universe, highlighting that their competitive nature would lead them to do something with the resources they grab, resulting in visible changes to the environment.', "The discussion also explores the distinction between 'grabby' and 'loud' aliens in terms of their aggressive and obvious presence, presenting a detailed mathematical model to differentiate between the two categories."]}], 'duration': 281.17, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk129.jpg', 'highlights': ['A living cosmology can help determine the existence and evolution of aliens in space-time based on the current date.', 'The expansion of the universe will lead to isolated galaxy clusters in 100-150 billion years.', "The concept of 'grabby aliens' revolves around the idea that they aggressively interact and change the environment as they expand into the universe, making them noticeable and distinct from 'quiet' aliens.", "The distinction between 'grabby' and 'loud' aliens is clarified using a particular mathematical model, where 'loud' refers to the general concept of being obvious, while 'grabby' is a more specific technical term."]}, {'end': 1334.586, 'segs': [{'end': 406.57, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 376.095, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 381.178, 'text': 'So we are right now a new civilization, and we have not yet started to expand.', 'start': 376.095, 'duration': 5.083}, {'end': 386.041, 'text': 'But plausibly, we would start to do that within, say, 10 million years of the current moment.', 'start': 381.738, 'duration': 4.303}, {'end': 391.563, 'text': "that's plenty of time, and 10 million years is a really short duration in the history of the universe.", 'start': 386.881, 'duration': 4.682}, {'end': 399.026, 'text': 'so we are at the moment a sort of random sample of the kind of times at which an advanced civilization might appear,', 'start': 391.563, 'duration': 7.463}, {'end': 406.57, 'text': "because we may or may not become grabby, but if we do, we'll do it soon, and so our current date, And that gives us one of the other parameters.", 'start': 399.026, 'duration': 7.544}], 'summary': 'Human civilization may start expanding within 10 million years, a short duration in universal history.', 'duration': 30.475, 'max_score': 376.095, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk376095.jpg'}, {'end': 492.099, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 465.041, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 473.864, 'text': 'and that we managed to achieve all these steps in the short time of the five billion years that Earth can support simple life.', 'start': 465.041, 'duration': 8.823}, {'end': 478.568, 'text': "So not all steps, but a lot of them, because we don't know how many steps there are before you start the expansion.", 'start': 473.924, 'duration': 4.644}, {'end': 485.233, 'text': 'So these are all the steps from the birth of life to the initiation of major expansion.', 'start': 478.808, 'duration': 6.425}, {'end': 492.099, 'text': "Right. so we're pretty sure that it would happen really soon, so that it couldn't be the same sort of a hard step as the last one,", 'start': 485.694, 'duration': 6.405}], 'summary': 'Earth can support simple life for 5 billion years, initiating major expansion soon.', 'duration': 27.058, 'max_score': 465.041, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk465041.jpg'}, {'end': 740.527, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 713.209, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 717.492, 'text': "Right We started at the bottom, now we're here, and that took six steps on average.", 'start': 713.209, 'duration': 4.283}, {'end': 727.339, 'text': 'The key point is, On average, these things on any one random planet would take trillions or trillions of years, just a really long time.', 'start': 717.853, 'duration': 9.486}, {'end': 733.222, 'text': "And so we're really lucky that they all happened really fast in a short time before our window closed.", 'start': 727.879, 'duration': 5.343}, {'end': 740.527, 'text': 'And the chance of that happening in that short window goes as that time period to the power of the number of steps.', 'start': 734.023, 'duration': 6.504}], 'summary': 'On average, it took six steps to go from the bottom to the current state, which would normally take trillions of years on any random planet, but happened within a short time period due to luck.', 'duration': 27.318, 'max_score': 713.209, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk713209.jpg'}, {'end': 965.483, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 939.479, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 945.681, 'text': "I am an analyst, I'm a scholar, an intellectual, and I feel I should carefully distinguish,", 'start': 939.479, 'duration': 6.202}, {'end': 952.076, 'text': "predicting what's likely to happen and then evaluating or judging what I think would be better to happen.", 'start': 945.681, 'duration': 6.395}, {'end': 958.179, 'text': "And it's a little dangerous to mix those up too closely because then we can have wishful thinking.", 'start': 952.957, 'duration': 5.222}, {'end': 965.483, 'text': 'And so I try typically to just analyze what seems likely to happen, regardless of whether I like it or whether we do anything about it.', 'start': 958.86, 'duration': 6.623}], 'summary': 'An analyst distinguishes between predicting and evaluating outcomes to avoid wishful thinking.', 'duration': 26.004, 'max_score': 939.479, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk939479.jpg'}], 'start': 281.499, 'title': 'Advanced life and civilization in the universe', 'summary': 'Presents a mathematical model for the distribution of advanced civilizations in space and time, highlighting the challenges and time frame for the appearance of advanced life, estimating a rough billion years left on earth for simple life, and discussing the importance of balancing analysis and humanity in decision-making.', 'chapters': [{'end': 421.32, 'start': 281.499, 'title': 'Rare advanced alien civilization model', 'summary': 'Presents a mathematical model for the distribution of advanced civilizations in space and time, with three parameters derived from data, suggesting that our current date may make us a random sample of when an advanced civilization might appear and expand in the universe.', 'duration': 139.821, 'highlights': ['The model for the distribution of advanced civilizations in space and time has three parameters that can be set from data, providing insights into the appearance and expansion of advanced civilizations in the universe.', 'The current date of humanity may make it a random sample of when an advanced civilization might appear and start expanding, potentially within 10 million years, which is a short duration in the history of the universe.', 'The appearance of advanced civilizations follows a power law, and fitting the parameters of this power law to data enables an understanding of the distribution of advanced civilizations in space and time.']}, {'end': 593.193, 'start': 422.021, 'title': 'The evolution of advanced life', 'summary': 'Discusses the challenges and time frame for the appearance of advanced life, highlighting the six hard steps that earth has gone through in achieving the development of advanced life in the short time of five billion years, including sexual selection, photosynthesis, and multicellularity.', 'duration': 171.172, 'highlights': ['Earth has achieved the six hard steps in the short time of five billion years that it can support simple life, including sexual selection, photosynthesis, and multicellularity. Earth has successfully achieved the six hard steps required for the development of advanced life within a relatively short time frame of five billion years.', 'The development of advanced life involved hard steps such as sexual selection, photosynthesis, and the evolution of multicellularity. The process of developing advanced life involved key hard steps, including sexual selection, photosynthesis, and the evolution of multicellularity.', 'The statistical model predicts varying difficulties for the steps involved in the development of advanced life. A statistical model suggests that the steps involved in the development of advanced life could vary in difficulty.']}, {'end': 938.079, 'start': 593.253, 'title': 'Mathematical model of life emergence in the universe', 'summary': "Discusses a mathematical model of life emergence in the universe, estimating a rough billion years left on earth for simple life, with a rough estimate of six hard steps, and how life's appearance in the universe follows a power law in time.", 'duration': 344.826, 'highlights': ["On average, life's hard steps on any random planet would take trillions of years, but on Earth, they happened really fast in a short time before the window closed, with a rough estimate of six hard steps.", 'The chance of advanced life appearing in the history of the universe follows a power law, with early on having very little chance and later on as things appear, other things are appearing somewhat closer to them in time, following a power law.', "The probability of cancer appearing in one's lifetime also goes as a power law, roughly six, correlating to the number of mutations required for any one cell to become cancerous, with the chance of getting cancer being roughly the power of six of the time since birth."]}, {'end': 1334.586, 'start': 939.479, 'title': 'Balancing analysis and humanity', 'summary': 'Discusses the importance of accurately analyzing likely outcomes and the potential tension between cold analysis and the human desire to help, emphasizing the need to balance data-driven decisions with a deeper understanding of the human condition.', 'duration': 395.107, 'highlights': ['The importance of accurately analyzing likely outcomes and the potential tension between cold analysis and the human desire to help The speaker emphasizes the need to carefully distinguish between predicting likely outcomes and evaluating what might be better to happen, highlighting the potential danger of wishful thinking and the importance of accurately analyzing likely outcomes.', 'The need to balance data-driven decisions with a deeper understanding of the human condition The discussion delves into the tension between cold analysis and the human desire to help, emphasizing the higher calling to look at things accurately and know the truth while also doing the right thing with it, highlighting the burden of deeply thinking about what is right in the subjective area of the human condition.', 'The burden and ethical responsibility of using data and models to arrive at the right decisions The chapter highlights the burden of using data and models to arrive at the right decisions, emphasizing the ethical responsibility to deeply think about what is right and not to excuse unethical actions using data.']}], 'duration': 1053.087, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk281499.jpg', 'highlights': ['The current date of humanity may make it a random sample of when an advanced civilization might appear and start expanding, potentially within 10 million years, which is a short duration in the history of the universe.', 'Earth has achieved the six hard steps in the short time of five billion years that it can support simple life, including sexual selection, photosynthesis, and multicellularity. Earth has successfully achieved the six hard steps required for the development of advanced life within a relatively short time frame of five billion years.', "On average, life's hard steps on any random planet would take trillions of years, but on Earth, they happened really fast in a short time before the window closed, with a rough estimate of six hard steps.", 'The importance of accurately analyzing likely outcomes and the potential tension between cold analysis and the human desire to help The speaker emphasizes the need to carefully distinguish between predicting likely outcomes and evaluating what might be better to happen, highlighting the potential danger of wishful thinking and the importance of accurately analyzing likely outcomes.']}, {'end': 2989.754, 'segs': [{'end': 1396.883, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1359.939, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 1364.462, 'text': "So we've talked about the history of life on Earth suggests that power is around six, but maybe three to 12.", 'start': 1359.939, 'duration': 4.523}, {'end': 1369.686, 'text': 'We can say that constant comes from our current date, sort of sets the overall rate.', 'start': 1364.462, 'duration': 5.224}, {'end': 1376.057, 'text': "And the speed, which is the last parameter, comes from the fact that when we look in the sky, we don't see them.", 'start': 1370.615, 'duration': 5.442}, {'end': 1382.098, 'text': 'So the model predicts very strongly that if they were expanding slowly, say 1% of the speed of light,', 'start': 1376.437, 'duration': 5.661}, {'end': 1386.14, 'text': 'our sky would be full of vast spheres that were full of activity.', 'start': 1382.098, 'duration': 4.042}, {'end': 1390.901, 'text': 'That is at a random time when a civilization is first appearing.', 'start': 1386.66, 'duration': 4.241}, {'end': 1396.883, 'text': 'if it looks out into its sky, it would see many other grabby alien civilizations in the sky, and they would be much bigger than the full moon.', 'start': 1390.901, 'duration': 5.982}], 'summary': 'Life on earth suggests power around 6, speed predicts vast spheres in the sky', 'duration': 36.944, 'max_score': 1359.939, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk1359939.jpg'}, {'end': 1443.859, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1419.824, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 1426.25, 'text': "If you look at the entirety of the history of Earth, We're now at this precipice of like expansion.", 'start': 1419.824, 'duration': 6.426}, {'end': 1430.772, 'text': 'We could, we might not choose to, but if we do, we will do it in the next 10 million years.', 'start': 1426.71, 'duration': 4.062}, {'end': 1432.373, 'text': '10 million.', 'start': 1431.993, 'duration': 0.38}, {'end': 1434.774, 'text': "Wow Time flies when you're having fun.", 'start': 1432.553, 'duration': 2.221}, {'end': 1438.396, 'text': 'Uh, short time on the, on the cosmological scale.', 'start': 1435.815, 'duration': 2.581}, {'end': 1443.859, 'text': "So that, that is, it might be only a thousand, but the point is if it's, even if it's up to 10 million, that hardly makes any difference to the model.", 'start': 1438.416, 'duration': 5.443}], 'summary': "Earth's history at precipice of expansion, possibly in the next 10 million years.", 'duration': 24.035, 'max_score': 1419.824, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk1419824.jpg'}, {'end': 1661.886, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1603.862, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 1608.627, 'text': 'By the time we get to 13.8 billion years, the fun begins.', 'start': 1603.862, 'duration': 4.765}, {'end': 1623.13, 'text': "Okay, so this is we're watching a three-dimensional sphere rotating I presume that's the universe and then crappy aliens are expanding and filling that universe with all kinds of fun.", 'start': 1609.901, 'duration': 13.229}, {'end': 1625.032, 'text': "And then pretty soon it's all full.", 'start': 1623.531, 'duration': 1.501}, {'end': 1626.073, 'text': "It's full.", 'start': 1625.592, 'duration': 0.481}, {'end': 1636.102, 'text': "So that's how the grabby aliens come in contact, first of all, with other aliens, and then with us, humans.", 'start': 1626.293, 'duration': 9.809}, {'end': 1639.846, 'text': 'The following is a simulation of the grabby aliens model of alien civilizations.', 'start': 1636.423, 'duration': 3.423}, {'end': 1644.21, 'text': 'Civilizations are born, then expand outwards at constant speed.', 'start': 1640.366, 'duration': 3.844}, {'end': 1646.633, 'text': 'A spherical region of space is shown.', 'start': 1644.23, 'duration': 2.403}, {'end': 1656.702, 'text': 'By the time we get to 13.8 billion years, This sphere will be about 3,000 times as wide as the distance from the Milky Way to Andromeda.', 'start': 1647.093, 'duration': 9.609}, {'end': 1658.904, 'text': 'Okay This is fun.', 'start': 1657.582, 'duration': 1.322}, {'end': 1659.364, 'text': "It's huge.", 'start': 1658.924, 'duration': 0.44}, {'end': 1660.245, 'text': "Okay, it's huge.", 'start': 1659.564, 'duration': 0.681}, {'end': 1661.886, 'text': 'All right.', 'start': 1661.105, 'duration': 0.781}], 'summary': 'Simulation of grabby aliens model shows civilizations expanding 3,000 times milky way to andromeda in 13.8 billion years.', 'duration': 58.024, 'max_score': 1603.862, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk1603862.jpg'}, {'end': 1791.723, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1747.024, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 1753.627, 'text': 'And remember that power law, it says that the chance of advanced life appearing on a planet goes as the power of sixth of the time.', 'start': 1747.024, 'duration': 6.603}, {'end': 1756.408, 'text': 'So if a planet lasts a thousand times longer,', 'start': 1753.967, 'duration': 2.441}, {'end': 1765.35, 'text': 'then the chance of it appearing on that planet if everything would stay empty at least is 1,000 to the sixth power, or 10 to the 18..', 'start': 1757.188, 'duration': 8.162}, {'end': 1770.532, 'text': 'So enormous, overwhelming chance that if the universe would just stay,', 'start': 1765.35, 'duration': 5.182}, {'end': 1777.954, 'text': 'sit and empty and waiting for advanced life to appear when it would appear would be way at the end of all these planets.', 'start': 1770.532, 'duration': 7.422}, {'end': 1783.517, 'text': 'Planet lifetimes, that is the long planets near the end of the lifetime, trillions of years into the future.', 'start': 1778.414, 'duration': 5.103}, {'end': 1785.879, 'text': "So, but we're really early compared to that.", 'start': 1784.138, 'duration': 1.741}, {'end': 1791.723, 'text': 'And our explanation is at the moment, as you saw in the video, the universe is filling up in roughly a billion years.', 'start': 1786.479, 'duration': 5.244}], 'summary': 'Power law suggests advanced life appearing on planets has a 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 chance, but the universe is filling up in roughly a billion years.', 'duration': 44.699, 'max_score': 1747.024, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk1747024.jpg'}, {'end': 2657.08, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 2624.246, 'weight': 7, 'content': [{'end': 2625.107, 'text': 'to ruin the party.', 'start': 2624.246, 'duration': 0.861}, {'end': 2632.419, 'text': "It takes one asshole to make a delay, but not that much of a delay on the cosmological scales we're talking about.", 'start': 2625.628, 'duration': 6.791}, {'end': 2634.402, 'text': 'So you could still party on.', 'start': 2632.599, 'duration': 1.803}, {'end': 2641.547, 'text': 'Even a vast nuclear war, if it happened here right now on Earth, It would not kill all humans.', 'start': 2634.703, 'duration': 6.844}, {'end': 2644.389, 'text': "Yes It certainly wouldn't kill all life.", 'start': 2642.207, 'duration': 2.182}, {'end': 2649.434, 'text': 'And so human civilization would return within 100,000 years.', 'start': 2645.41, 'duration': 4.024}, {'end': 2657.08, 'text': 'So all the history of atrocities, and if you look at the..', 'start': 2650.274, 'duration': 6.806}], 'summary': 'Minor delays in cosmic scales; human civilization resilient, could return within 100,000 years.', 'duration': 32.834, 'max_score': 2624.246, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk2624246.jpg'}], 'start': 1335.226, 'title': 'Alien civilization expansion', 'summary': "Discusses models and implications of alien civilizations' expansion, predicting lack of visible advanced life, potential collision, and impact on earth's early appearance, with a focus on grabby aliens model and living cosmology. it highlights earth's current position in the history of expansion into space.", 'chapters': [{'end': 1479.386, 'start': 1335.226, 'title': 'Alien grabby civilization model', 'summary': "Discusses a model for 'grabbiness' of alien civilizations, predicting that if they were expanding slowly, our sky would be full of visually distinct spheres, but we don't observe them, and also highlights earth's current position in the history of expansion into space.", 'duration': 144.16, 'highlights': ["The model predicts that if alien civilizations were expanding slowly, our sky would be full of vast spheres, visually different from anything we see, but we don't observe them.", 'Earth is currently at the precipice of expansion into space, with the possibility of doing so in the next 10 million years, a relatively short time on a cosmological scale.', 'The history of life on Earth suggests a power of around six for the rate at which alien civilizations appear in time, with a possibility of three to 12.', "The speed at which alien civilizations expand is another parameter, and if they were expanding slowly, the sky would be full of visually distinct spheres that we don't observe."]}, {'end': 1905.478, 'start': 1479.747, 'title': 'Grabby aliens model of alien civilizations', 'summary': "Discusses the grabby aliens model, where alien civilizations expand at a constant speed, filling the universe at a rate that will render it all full in roughly a billion years, explaining the lack of visible advanced life and implying the earth's early appearance is due to the universe filling up.", 'duration': 425.731, 'highlights': ['Alien civilizations expanding at a constant speed will fill the universe in roughly a billion years, explaining the lack of visible advanced life. The grabby aliens model suggests that the universe will be fully filled in approximately a billion years due to the constant expansion of alien civilizations, providing an explanation for the absence of visible advanced life.', "Earth's early appearance is attributed to the universe filling up, as most planets would not develop advanced life for another thousand times longer. The Earth's early appearance in the universe is explained by the grabby aliens model, as most planets would not develop advanced life for another thousand times longer, implying that Earth's early appearance is due to the universe filling up.", 'The chance of advanced life appearing on a planet goes as the power of sixth of the time, leading to an overwhelming chance that advanced life would appear way at the end of the lifetime of most planets. The power law indicates an overwhelming chance that advanced life would appear way at the end of the lifetime of most planets, as the chance of advanced life appearing on a planet goes as the power of sixth of the time, providing insight into the timing of advanced life appearances.']}, {'end': 2201.037, 'start': 1906.298, 'title': 'Alien civilization expansion and collision', 'summary': 'Discusses the mathematical assumptions and implications of the expansion and collision of alien civilizations, including the probability and impact of their arrival, and the potential dangers of their rapid expansion towards earth.', 'duration': 294.739, 'highlights': ['Alien civilizations expanding towards Earth at close to the speed of light could pose a threat, with the possibility of spheres representing these civilizations appearing in the sky and rapidly growing, potentially leading to collisions. The discussion emphasizes the potential threat posed by alien civilizations expanding rapidly towards Earth, with the depiction of spheres representing these civilizations appearing in the sky at a rapid pace and the potential dangers of collisions.', "The probability of alien civilizations originating close to Earth's time and the impact of their extremely rapid travel speed are discussed, with the likelihood of collisions and the potential dangers posed by their arrival being explored. The probability of alien civilizations originating close to Earth's time is considered, along with the potential dangers posed by their extremely rapid travel speed and the likelihood of collisions, highlighting the potential impact of their arrival.", 'The chapter also delves into the implications of spheres representing alien civilizations colliding, recognizing each other, and the potential com binatorial scenarios that may arise, drawing parallels with human nature and the limited data available. The chapter explores the implications of spheres representing alien civilizations colliding and recognizing each other, drawing parallels with human nature and highlighting the potential combinatorial scenarios that may arise from these collisions.']}, {'end': 2989.754, 'start': 2201.037, 'title': 'Living cosmology and grabby aliens', 'summary': 'Discusses a living cosmology that includes the concept of expanding universe filled with alien civilizations, the potential for competition and war among these civilizations, and the implications of global governance on human expansion and progress.', 'duration': 788.717, 'highlights': ['The universe will be filled with aliens in a few billion years, leading to interstellar interactions and potential community. In a few billion years, the universe will be filled with expanding alien civilizations that will interact and potentially form a community, impacting the future cosmological history.', 'Competition defines life on Earth and is likely to define grabby alien civilizations, leading to potential competition and war as they expand. Competition has been a fundamental force in shaping life on Earth and is likely to define the expansion of grabby alien civilizations, potentially leading to competition and war among them.', 'Global governance may limit competition and human expansion, potentially preventing interstellar colonization and the resurgence of competition. The possibility of global governance could limit competition and human expansion, potentially preventing interstellar colonization and the resurgence of competition, impacting the future direction of human progress.', 'Elites may steer towards global governance, using shared values and policies to slowly strengthen world institutions of governance, potentially leading to a centralized power. Elites may use shared values and policies to slowly strengthen world institutions of governance, potentially leading to a centralized power, impacting the future dynamics of global decision-making and progress.', 'The potential for propaganda and the influence of elites in shaping global narratives and policies, potentially disregarding human suffering. The potential for propaganda and the influence of elites in shaping global narratives and policies could impact decisions and actions, potentially disregarding human suffering in the pursuit of certain agendas.']}], 'duration': 1654.528, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk1335226.jpg', 'highlights': ['Alien civilizations expanding at a constant speed will fill the universe in roughly a billion years, explaining the lack of visible advanced life.', 'The universe will be filled with aliens in a few billion years, leading to interstellar interactions and potential community.', "The model predicts that if alien civilizations were expanding slowly, our sky would be full of vast spheres, visually different from anything we see, but we don't observe them.", 'Earth is currently at the precipice of expansion into space, with the possibility of doing so in the next 10 million years, a relatively short time on a cosmological scale.', 'Competition defines life on Earth and is likely to define grabby alien civilizations, leading to potential competition and war as they expand.', 'The history of life on Earth suggests a power of around six for the rate at which alien civilizations appear in time, with a possibility of three to 12.', 'The chance of advanced life appearing on a planet goes as the power of sixth of the time, leading to an overwhelming chance that advanced life would appear way at the end of the lifetime of most planets.', 'The potential for propaganda and the influence of elites in shaping global narratives and policies, potentially disregarding human suffering.']}, {'end': 3766.123, 'segs': [{'end': 3341.643, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 3313.524, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 3322.948, 'text': 'And the case I was going to make is that I think one of the things that most scares people about competition is not just that it creates holocausts and death on massive scales,', 'start': 3313.524, 'duration': 9.424}, {'end': 3328.171, 'text': "is that it's likely to change who we are and what we value.", 'start': 3322.948, 'duration': 5.223}, {'end': 3332.473, 'text': 'Yes So this is the other thing with power.', 'start': 3328.611, 'duration': 3.862}, {'end': 3341.643, 'text': 'As we grow, as human civilization grows, becomes multi-planetary, multi-solar system, potentially.', 'start': 3334.196, 'duration': 7.447}], 'summary': 'Competition can lead to massive changes and growth in human civilization, potentially becoming multi-planetary and multi-solar system.', 'duration': 28.119, 'max_score': 3313.524, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk3313524.jpg'}, {'end': 3473.518, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 3443.439, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 3444.761, 'text': "And it's very different.", 'start': 3443.439, 'duration': 1.322}, {'end': 3451.368, 'text': "And it's different in ways that are shocking sometimes to many people and ways some people don't like.", 'start': 3445.902, 'duration': 5.466}, {'end': 3454.629, 'text': "I think it's an okay world, but I have to admit it's quite different.", 'start': 3451.688, 'duration': 2.941}, {'end': 3457.131, 'text': "And that's just one technology.", 'start': 3454.749, 'duration': 2.382}, {'end': 3467.295, 'text': "If we add dozens more technologies and changes into the future, we should just expect it's possible to become very different than who we are.", 'start': 3458.131, 'duration': 9.164}, {'end': 3473.518, 'text': 'I mean, in the space of all possible minds, our minds are a particular architecture, a particular structure, a particular..', 'start': 3467.515, 'duration': 6.003}], 'summary': 'The future world may be very different due to numerous technologies and changes.', 'duration': 30.079, 'max_score': 3443.439, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk3443439.jpg'}, {'end': 3520.598, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 3495.654, 'weight': 5, 'content': [{'end': 3505.985, 'text': 'Like the fact that we like a particular kind of sex and the fact that we eat food through one hole and poop through another hole.', 'start': 3495.654, 'duration': 10.331}, {'end': 3509.368, 'text': 'And that seems to be a fundamental aspect of life.', 'start': 3506.005, 'duration': 3.363}, {'end': 3511.15, 'text': "It's very important to us.", 'start': 3510.209, 'duration': 0.941}, {'end': 3516.835, 'text': 'And that life is finite in a certain kind of way.', 'start': 3513.773, 'duration': 3.062}, {'end': 3518.036, 'text': 'We have a meat vehicle.', 'start': 3516.875, 'duration': 1.161}, {'end': 3520.598, 'text': 'So death is very important to us.', 'start': 3518.936, 'duration': 1.662}], 'summary': "Life's fundamental aspects: sex, eating, and mortality are vital to us.", 'duration': 24.944, 'max_score': 3495.654, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk3495654.jpg'}, {'end': 3675.339, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 3639.325, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 3643.549, 'text': 'They will care about the long run and they will therefore not neglect the wrong.', 'start': 3639.325, 'duration': 4.224}, {'end': 3645.949, 'text': 'so, for example, for things like global warming or things like,', 'start': 3643.549, 'duration': 2.4}, {'end': 3651.551, 'text': "you know that at the moment many commenters are sad that basically ordinary people don't seem to care much.", 'start': 3645.949, 'duration': 5.602}, {'end': 3655.612, 'text': "market prices don't seem to care much and more ordinary people, it doesn't really impact them much,", 'start': 3651.551, 'duration': 4.061}, {'end': 3659.453, 'text': "because humans don't care much about the long-term future.", 'start': 3655.612, 'duration': 3.841}, {'end': 3666.752, 'text': "but and Futurists find it hard to motivate people and to engage people about the long-term future because they just don't care that much.", 'start': 3659.453, 'duration': 7.299}, {'end': 3672.817, 'text': "But that's a side effect of this particular way that our preferences evolved about the future.", 'start': 3667.273, 'duration': 5.544}, {'end': 3675.339, 'text': 'And so in the future, they will neglect the future less.', 'start': 3672.937, 'duration': 2.402}], 'summary': 'People neglect long-term future due to evolved preferences, impacting global issues like global warming.', 'duration': 36.014, 'max_score': 3639.325, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk3639325.jpg'}], 'start': 2990.434, 'title': 'Interstellar expansion and future civilization', 'summary': "Discusses the impact of limiting interstellar expansion for global governance and emphasizes the importance of distributing power centers. it also explores the potential changes in human civilization and values due to interstellar colonization, emphasizing the impact of competition and future generations' long-term care.", 'chapters': [{'end': 3219.059, 'start': 2990.434, 'title': 'Power centers and interstellar expansion', 'summary': "Discusses the dilemma between global governance and interstellar expansion, emphasizing the potential consequences of limiting expansion for the sake of global governance and the importance of distributing power centers for humanity's progress and innovation.", 'duration': 228.625, 'highlights': ["The dilemma between global governance and interstellar expansion is a key choice that humanity will face, and it's a key choice other aliens have faced out there. The chapter highlights the crucial decision humanity will face between global governance and interstellar expansion, emphasizing that this dilemma is also encountered by other civilizations.", 'The potential consequences of limiting expansion for the sake of global governance could prevent interstellar colonization and lead to loss of control over colonies, hindering exploration and innovation. It is emphasized that choosing to limit expansion for the sake of global governance may hinder exploration and innovation by preventing interstellar colonization and potentially losing control over colonies.', "Distributing power centers is beneficial for humanity's expansion, exploration, and innovation, emphasizing the importance of not centralizing power and the potential benefits of having multiple power centers. The chapter underscores the benefits of distributing power centers for humanity's progress, emphasizing that it is beneficial for expansion, exploration, and innovation, and highlights the potential advantages of not centralizing power."]}, {'end': 3766.123, 'start': 3219.279, 'title': 'Future of human civilization and competition', 'summary': "Discusses the potential changes in human civilization and values as it expands multi-planetary and explores interstellar colonization, emphasizing the impact of competition and the evolution of future generations' care for the long-term future.", 'duration': 546.844, 'highlights': ['The potential changes in human civilization and values as it expands multi-planetary and explores interstellar colonization. The discussion explores the decision of human and alien civilizations to expand, the distribution of power centers, and the potential impact on human values as civilization becomes multi-planetary and potentially multi-solar system.', 'The impact of competition on ensuring the continuation of competition into the indefinite future. The speaker emphasizes that in a world of competition, the possibility of interstellar colonization will lead to its occurrence, ensuring the continuation of competition into the indefinite future, which could take either violent or productive forms.', "The evolution of future generations' care for the long-term future. The prediction is made that in the longer run, creatures will evolve who care about the long-term future, neglecting the future less as a robust feature of future generations, potentially occurring in the next few centuries or longer."]}], 'duration': 775.689, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk2990434.jpg', 'highlights': ["The dilemma between global governance and interstellar expansion is a key choice that humanity will face, and it's a key choice other aliens have faced out there.", 'The potential consequences of limiting expansion for the sake of global governance could prevent interstellar colonization and lead to loss of control over colonies, hindering exploration and innovation.', 'The potential changes in human civilization and values as it expands multi-planetary and explores interstellar colonization.', 'The impact of competition on ensuring the continuation of competition into the indefinite future.', "Distributing power centers is beneficial for humanity's expansion, exploration, and innovation, emphasizing the importance of not centralizing power and the potential benefits of having multiple power centers.", "The evolution of future generations' care for the long-term future."]}, {'end': 5422.347, 'segs': [{'end': 3901.176, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 3871.222, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 3876.464, 'text': 'But those packages of preferences are not a robust way to promote having more descendants.', 'start': 3871.222, 'duration': 5.242}, {'end': 3880.065, 'text': 'They were tied to our ancestral environment, which is no longer true.', 'start': 3876.684, 'duration': 3.381}, {'end': 3885.586, 'text': "So that's one of the reasons we are now having a big fertility decline, because, in our current environment,", 'start': 3880.085, 'duration': 5.501}, {'end': 3891.008, 'text': "our ancestral preferences are not inducing us to have a lot of kids, which is, from evolution's point of view, a big mistake.", 'start': 3885.586, 'duration': 5.422}, {'end': 3901.176, 'text': 'We can predict that in the longer run, there will arise creatures who just abstractly know that what they want is more descendants.', 'start': 3892.492, 'duration': 8.684}], 'summary': 'Ancestral preferences no longer promote fertility, leading to a big decline in descendants.', 'duration': 29.954, 'max_score': 3871.222, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk3871222.jpg'}, {'end': 5094.168, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 5064.516, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 5068.558, 'text': 'They have slavery, they have war, they have property, they have inequality, they have kings.', 'start': 5064.516, 'duration': 4.042}, {'end': 5071.539, 'text': 'They stay in one place instead of wandering.', 'start': 5069.738, 'duration': 1.801}, {'end': 5074.72, 'text': "They don't have as much diversity of experience or food.", 'start': 5071.939, 'duration': 2.781}, {'end': 5075.72, 'text': 'They have more disease.', 'start': 5074.76, 'duration': 0.96}, {'end': 5077.821, 'text': 'Farming life is just very different.', 'start': 5076.521, 'duration': 1.3}, {'end': 5085.344, 'text': 'But humans were able to sort of introduce conformity and religion and all sorts of things to become just a very different kind of creature as farmers.', 'start': 5078.041, 'duration': 7.303}, {'end': 5088.666, 'text': 'Farmers are just really different than foragers in terms of their values and their lives.', 'start': 5085.384, 'duration': 3.282}, {'end': 5094.168, 'text': 'But the pressures that made foragers into farmers were in part mediated by poverty.', 'start': 5090.126, 'duration': 4.042}], 'summary': 'Transition from foragers to farmers resulted in more disease, less diversity, and new values and lifestyles.', 'duration': 29.652, 'max_score': 5064.516, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk5064516.jpg'}, {'end': 5229.525, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 5181.219, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 5185.784, 'text': 'Star Trek or the culture novels, people like this image that we are moving toward this world.', 'start': 5181.219, 'duration': 4.565}, {'end': 5187.346, 'text': "We're basically like foragers.", 'start': 5185.824, 'duration': 1.522}, {'end': 5187.947, 'text': "We're peaceful.", 'start': 5187.366, 'duration': 0.581}, {'end': 5188.527, 'text': 'We share.', 'start': 5188.007, 'duration': 0.52}, {'end': 5190.409, 'text': 'We make decisions collectively.', 'start': 5188.908, 'duration': 1.501}, {'end': 5191.871, 'text': 'We have a lot of free time.', 'start': 5190.509, 'duration': 1.362}, {'end': 5193.653, 'text': 'We are into art.', 'start': 5192.792, 'duration': 0.861}, {'end': 5206.817, 'text': "So forger, you know, forger's a word and it's a loaded word because it's connected to the actual, what life was actually like at that time.", 'start': 5195.074, 'duration': 11.743}, {'end': 5212.859, 'text': "As you mentioned, we sometimes don't do a good job of telling accurately what life was like back then.", 'start': 5207.617, 'duration': 5.242}, {'end': 5217.86, 'text': "But you're saying if it's not exactly like forger's, it rhymes in some fundamental way.", 'start': 5213.239, 'duration': 4.621}, {'end': 5219.841, 'text': 'Because you also said peaceful.', 'start': 5217.88, 'duration': 1.961}, {'end': 5227.464, 'text': 'Is it obvious that a forger with a nuclear weapon would be peaceful.', 'start': 5219.861, 'duration': 7.603}, {'end': 5229.525, 'text': "I don't know if that's 100% obvious.", 'start': 5227.784, 'duration': 1.741}], 'summary': 'People admire a forager-like culture: peaceful, collective decision-making, and emphasis on art and free time.', 'duration': 48.306, 'max_score': 5181.219, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk5181219.jpg'}], 'start': 3766.123, 'title': 'Risks, ai, evolution, and nuclear threat', 'summary': 'Discusses the impact of correlated and uncorrelated risks on descendants, the future of artificial minds and long-term preferences, evolution on land vs ocean worlds, and the likelihood of nuclear war and human capacity for destruction.', 'chapters': [{'end': 3812.855, 'start': 3766.123, 'title': 'Correlated and uncorrelated risk in descendants', 'summary': 'Discusses the impact of correlated and uncorrelated risks on descendants, emphasizing the potential consequences of taking risks on the number of descendants, as well as the concept of creating a portfolio of descendants as a form of risk management.', 'duration': 46.732, 'highlights': ['The impact of taking risks on descendants is emphasized, where correlated risks may lead to having more descendants but also pose the risk of having zero, while uncorrelated risks may affect some descendants but not others.', 'The concept of creating a portfolio of descendants is introduced as a means of risk management, ensuring against problems with any one of them.', 'The discussion briefly touches on the idea of portfolios in relation to personal choices and investment funds.']}, {'end': 4240.562, 'start': 3812.855, 'title': 'Future of artificial minds and long-term preferences', 'summary': 'Discusses the future of artificial minds and predicts that long-term civilizations will consciously prefer to have more descendants, including artificial intelligence systems and clones, and the likelihood of encountering artificial aliens. it also explores the evolutionary significance of multiple genders and the advantages of having males and females.', 'duration': 427.707, 'highlights': ['Long-term civilizations will consciously prefer to have more descendants, including artificial intelligence systems and clones. Predicts that successful long-term civilizations will consciously prefer to have more descendants as a robust strategy for promoting reproduction and discusses the various forms of descendants, including artificial intelligence systems and clones.', 'Predicts the likelihood of encountering artificial aliens and the evolutionary significance of multiple genders. Discusses the prediction that distant descendants and potential aliens will almost entirely be artificial, and explores the evolutionary significance of multiple genders, highlighting the literature on why multiple genders evolved and the advantages of having males and females in terms of sexual selection and genetic mutation.']}, {'end': 4534.093, 'start': 4240.682, 'title': 'Evolution on land vs ocean worlds', 'summary': 'Discusses the higher diversity of species on land compared to ocean worlds, attributing it to the varied environments and smaller niches promoting speciation. it also explores the possibility of advanced life on ocean worlds and questions the likelihood of alien civilizations evolving on land, highlighting the open question of intelligent life on ocean worlds.', 'duration': 293.411, 'highlights': ['The higher diversity of species on land is attributed to the varied environments and smaller niches promoting speciation, resulting in more evolution on land than in the ocean. (e.g. rivers contain an enormous percentage of the kinds of species on land, and speciation promotes evolution in the long run)', 'The possibility of advanced life on ocean worlds is discussed, emphasizing that a large fraction of planets out there are ocean worlds, and the appearance of life on such worlds could lead to the existence of advanced life due to their longevity. (e.g. a large fraction of planets out there are ocean worlds, and if life can appear on an ocean world, then that pretty much ensures that these planets that last a very long time could have advanced life)', "The question of the likelihood of alien civilizations evolving on land is raised, challenging the assumption that advanced life must have evolved on land and suggesting that people may not be giving enough credit for other possible paths. (e.g. the question behind the Twitter poll, which is a grabby alien civilization that comes to say hello, and people tending to assume that whatever we did must be the only way it's possible)"]}, {'end': 4816.669, 'start': 4534.473, 'title': 'Nuclear war: threat and prevention', 'summary': 'Discusses the likelihood of nuclear war, the impact of mutually assured destruction, the decline in major wars over the last century, and the difficulty in predicting future nuclear wars due to the rare, destructive nature of such conflicts.', 'duration': 282.196, 'highlights': ['The chapter explores the belief that civilization would end after a nuclear war, and questions the effectiveness of mutually assured destruction in preventing nuclear weapon firing. The discussion examines the assumption that a nuclear war would end civilization and the effectiveness of mutually assured destruction in preventing nuclear weapon firing.', 'The chapter reflects on the decline in major wars over the last century and the challenges in identifying trends due to the rare and destructive nature of such conflicts. It reflects on the significant decline in major wars over the last century and the challenges in identifying trends due to the rare and destructive nature of such conflicts.', 'The chapter discusses the difficulty in predicting future nuclear wars due to the lack of strong data on the destructive nature of the weapons and the human dynamics involved in nuclear war. It discusses the challenge in predicting future nuclear wars due to the lack of strong data on the destructive nature of the weapons and the human dynamics involved in nuclear war.', 'The chapter emphasizes the need to understand the human dynamics and geopolitics involved in nuclear war in order to minimize the chance of such a catastrophic event. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the human dynamics and geopolitics involved in nuclear war to minimize the chance of such a catastrophic event.']}, {'end': 5422.347, 'start': 4817.369, 'title': 'Human capacity for destruction', 'summary': 'Discusses the capability of humans to engage in large-scale destruction, the shift in cultural attitudes from farming to foraging, and the potential challenges in communicating with advanced aliens.', 'duration': 604.978, 'highlights': ['The shift from farming to foraging attitudes in the last few centuries is explained by increasing wealth, leading to trends such as less slavery, more democracy, and more leisure. The shift from farming to foraging attitudes in the last few centuries is explained by increasing wealth, leading to trends such as less slavery, more democracy, and more leisure.', "The potential challenges in communicating with advanced aliens due to cultural differences and the complexity of understanding each other's perspectives. The potential challenges in communicating with advanced aliens due to cultural differences and the complexity of understanding each other's perspectives.", 'The discussion of the potential for humans to engage in large-scale destruction, such as a nuclear war, and the lack of good models to predict such events. The discussion of the potential for humans to engage in large-scale destruction, such as a nuclear war, and the lack of good models to predict such events.']}], 'duration': 1656.224, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk3766123.jpg', 'highlights': ['Long-term civilizations will consciously prefer to have more descendants, including artificial intelligence systems and clones.', 'The possibility of advanced life on ocean worlds is discussed, emphasizing that a large fraction of planets out there are ocean worlds, and the appearance of life on such worlds could lead to the existence of advanced life due to their longevity.', 'The higher diversity of species on land is attributed to the varied environments and smaller niches promoting speciation, resulting in more evolution on land than in the ocean.', 'The chapter explores the belief that civilization would end after a nuclear war, and questions the effectiveness of mutually assured destruction in preventing nuclear weapon firing.', 'The shift from farming to foraging attitudes in the last few centuries is explained by increasing wealth, leading to trends such as less slavery, more democracy, and more leisure.']}, {'end': 7618.007, 'segs': [{'end': 6186.922, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 6156.872, 'weight': 8, 'content': [{'end': 6160.657, 'text': 'But then we also know, well, they would have chosen to come here.', 'start': 6156.872, 'duration': 3.785}, {'end': 6167.785, 'text': 'So clearly they made an exception from their general rule to say, okay, but an expedition to Earth, that should be allowed.', 'start': 6160.777, 'duration': 7.008}, {'end': 6172.411, 'text': 'It could be intentional exception or incompetent exception.', 'start': 6168.326, 'duration': 4.085}, {'end': 6178.836, 'text': "But if incompetent, then they couldn't maintain this over 100 million years, this policy of not allowing any expansion.", 'start': 6172.811, 'duration': 6.025}, {'end': 6186.922, 'text': 'So we have to see they have successfully, they not just had a policy to try, they succeeded over 100 million years in preventing the expansion.', 'start': 6178.856, 'duration': 8.066}], 'summary': 'Aliens made an exception to allow an expedition to earth, maintaining policy for 100 million years.', 'duration': 30.05, 'max_score': 6156.872, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk6156872.jpg'}, {'end': 6324.376, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 6290.854, 'weight': 13, 'content': [{'end': 6292.235, 'text': 'That is, to enforce that rule on us.', 'start': 6290.854, 'duration': 1.381}, {'end': 6297.798, 'text': 'That is, if we go out and expanding, then we have defeated the purpose of this rule they set up.', 'start': 6292.755, 'duration': 5.043}, {'end': 6303.562, 'text': 'Interesting Right? So they would be here to convince us to not expand.', 'start': 6298.079, 'duration': 5.483}, {'end': 6304.783, 'text': 'Convince in quotes.', 'start': 6303.762, 'duration': 1.021}, {'end': 6306.785, 'text': 'Right? Through various mechanisms.', 'start': 6305.263, 'duration': 1.522}, {'end': 6309.847, 'text': "So obviously one thing we conclude is they didn't just destroy us.", 'start': 6306.825, 'duration': 3.022}, {'end': 6317.812, 'text': "That would have been completely possible, right? So the fact that they're here and we are not destroyed means that They chose not to destroy us.", 'start': 6310.047, 'duration': 7.765}, {'end': 6324.376, 'text': 'They have some degree of empathy or, you know, whatever their morals are that would make them reluctant to just destroy us.', 'start': 6317.832, 'duration': 6.544}], 'summary': "The rule's purpose is to prevent expansion; implies empathy from enforcers.", 'duration': 33.522, 'max_score': 6290.854, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk6290854.jpg'}, {'end': 6418.889, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 6392.544, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 6396.588, 'text': "So now that's that explains why they're here and why they aren't out there.", 'start': 6392.544, 'duration': 4.044}, {'end': 6398.109, 'text': "There's another thing that we need to explain.", 'start': 6396.748, 'duration': 1.361}, {'end': 6402.373, 'text': "There's another key data we need to explain about UFOs if we're going to have a hypothesis that explains them.", 'start': 6398.129, 'duration': 4.244}, {'end': 6410.522, 'text': "And this is something many people have noticed, which is They had two extreme options they could have chosen and didn't chose.", 'start': 6402.493, 'duration': 8.029}, {'end': 6413.505, 'text': 'They could have either just remained completely invisible.', 'start': 6411.023, 'duration': 2.482}, {'end': 6416.547, 'text': 'Clearly, an advanced civilization could have been completely invisible.', 'start': 6413.985, 'duration': 2.562}, {'end': 6418.889, 'text': "There's no reason they need to fly around and be noticed.", 'start': 6416.567, 'duration': 2.322}], 'summary': 'Ufos could have remained invisible but chose not to, indicating advanced capabilities.', 'duration': 26.345, 'max_score': 6392.544, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk6392544.jpg'}, {'end': 6600.545, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 6553.832, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 6560.176, 'text': "that they would want to interact with some fundamental aspect that they're interested in without interfering with it?", 'start': 6553.832, 'duration': 6.344}, {'end': 6563.278, 'text': "And that's actually a very.", 'start': 6561.156, 'duration': 2.122}, {'end': 6565.44, 'text': "no matter how advanced you are, it's very difficult to do.", 'start': 6563.278, 'duration': 2.162}, {'end': 6566.561, 'text': "But that's puzzling.", 'start': 6565.58, 'duration': 0.981}, {'end': 6584.355, 'text': 'So I mean the prototypical UFO observation is a shiny big object in the sky that has very rapid acceleration and no apparent surfaces for using air to manipulate its speed.', 'start': 6566.861, 'duration': 17.494}, {'end': 6586.297, 'text': 'You know, and..', 'start': 6585.996, 'duration': 0.301}, {'end': 6593.761, 'text': 'The question is, why that? Again, for example, if they just wanted to talk to our computer systems,', 'start': 6588.238, 'duration': 5.523}, {'end': 6600.545, 'text': 'they could move a little probe that connects to a wire and reads and sends bits there.', 'start': 6593.761, 'duration': 6.784}], 'summary': 'Puzzling ufo behavior: rapid acceleration, no surfaces, and potential interaction with computer systems.', 'duration': 46.713, 'max_score': 6553.832, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk6553832.jpg'}, {'end': 6687.571, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 6659.889, 'weight': 9, 'content': [{'end': 6667.874, 'text': 'I think most animals on Earth, who are social animals, have status hierarchy and they would reasonably presume that we have a status hierarchy.', 'start': 6659.889, 'duration': 7.985}, {'end': 6671.16, 'text': 'Take me to your leader.', 'start': 6669.959, 'duration': 1.201}, {'end': 6679.085, 'text': 'Well, I would say their strategy is to be impressive and sort of get us to see them at the top of our status hierarchy.', 'start': 6671.46, 'duration': 7.625}, {'end': 6687.571, 'text': "That's how, for example, we domesticate dogs, right? We convince dogs we're the leader of their pack.", 'start': 6682.808, 'duration': 4.763}], 'summary': 'Social animals use status hierarchy, as seen in domestication of dogs.', 'duration': 27.682, 'max_score': 6659.889, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk6659889.jpg'}, {'end': 7068.342, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 7041.723, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 7048.452, 'text': 'And so if you actually, you know, project this log graph in history, it looks like it was many billions of years ago when you get down to zero.', 'start': 7041.723, 'duration': 6.729}, {'end': 7050.054, 'text': 'So, like plausibly you could say,', 'start': 7048.512, 'duration': 1.542}, {'end': 7056.995, 'text': "there was just a lot of evolution that had to happen before you get to the simplest life we've ever seen in history of life on earth was still pretty damn complicated.", 'start': 7050.054, 'duration': 6.941}, {'end': 7060.717, 'text': "okay, and so that race that's always been this puzzle.", 'start': 7056.995, 'duration': 3.722}, {'end': 7068.342, 'text': 'how could life get to this enormously complicated level in the short period it seems to, at the beginning of earth history?', 'start': 7060.717, 'duration': 7.625}], 'summary': 'Billions of years ago, evolution led to the complex life on earth, posing the puzzle of rapid complexity in early earth history.', 'duration': 26.619, 'max_score': 7041.723, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk7041723.jpg'}, {'end': 7107.095, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 7079.65, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 7088.758, 'text': "it's been another five billion years on another planet going through lots of earlier stages where it was working its way up to the level of complexity you see at the beginning of Earth.", 'start': 7079.65, 'duration': 9.108}, {'end': 7095.844, 'text': "We'll try to talk about other ideas of the origin of life, but let me return to UFO sightings.", 'start': 7089.398, 'duration': 6.446}, {'end': 7099.728, 'text': 'Is there other explanations that are possible outside of panspermia?', 'start': 7096.165, 'duration': 3.563}, {'end': 7107.095, 'text': 'siblings that can explain no grabby aliens in the sky and yet alien arrival on Earth?', 'start': 7099.728, 'duration': 7.367}], 'summary': 'Five billion years on another planet, discussing origins of life and ufo sightings.', 'duration': 27.445, 'max_score': 7079.65, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk7079650.jpg'}, {'end': 7316.804, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 7288.565, 'weight': 12, 'content': [{'end': 7297.015, 'text': 'So the kind of data my brain, whatever the chemistry of my brain is that sees the beautiful in things, is maybe collecting a subset of data.', 'start': 7288.565, 'duration': 8.45}, {'end': 7309.401, 'text': "that doesn't allow me to intuit the competence that humans are able to achieve in constructing a conspiracy theory.", 'start': 7297.916, 'duration': 11.485}, {'end': 7316.804, 'text': 'So, for example, one thing that people often talk about is, like intelligence agencies, this like broad thing, they say the CIA, the FSB,', 'start': 7309.461, 'duration': 7.343}], 'summary': "Brain's data collection limits understanding of conspiracy theories.", 'duration': 28.239, 'max_score': 7288.565, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk7288565.jpg'}], 'start': 5422.347, 'title': 'Alien civilizations and ufo hypotheses', 'summary': 'Explores the possibility of alien civilizations, differentiating between grabby aliens and ufo aliens, and discusses ufo sightings and the plausibility of extraterrestrial origins, exploring hypotheses and conspiracy theories related to alien presence on earth.', 'chapters': [{'end': 5687.49, 'start': 5422.347, 'title': 'Alien civilization expansion', 'summary': 'Discusses the possibility of alien civilizations, distinguishing between grabby aliens and ufo aliens, and explores the likelihood of their expansion and colonization, considering the timing of their arrival and the sphere of their exploration.', 'duration': 265.143, 'highlights': ['The holo-aliens, about aliens we might meet soon, which might be UFO aliens, probably are not grabby aliens and would have to be able to travel but not be expansive. Distinguishing between grabby aliens and UFO aliens, highlighting the need for travel capability without expansion.', 'If UFOs are aliens, they are much older than us, and the timing of their arrival makes it unlikely that they just happened to get here recently, indicating they could have arrived much earlier. Emphasizing the likelihood of UFO aliens being much older than humans and the unlikelihood of recent arrival, suggesting they could have reached Earth much earlier.', 'The sphere of places where the stragglers go, the different people that journey out the explorers, is much, much larger and grows much faster than the civilization, potentially leading to visitors exploring and collecting data without mass colonization. Exploring the concept of a larger sphere for explorers than colonizers, indicating the potential for visitors to collect data without immediate mass colonization.']}, {'end': 6392.323, 'start': 5687.49, 'title': 'Ufo sightings and extraterrestrial origins', 'summary': 'Discusses the analysis of ufo sightings and the plausibility of extraterrestrial origins, presenting a prior probability of one in a thousand for the ufos as aliens scenario, and explores the hypothesis of panspermia siblings as an explanation for alien civilizations, suggesting that they may be closely monitoring and attempting to prevent human expansion.', 'duration': 704.833, 'highlights': ['The prior probability of the UFOs as aliens scenario is estimated to be roughly one in a thousand, acknowledging that strong physical evidence could increase the likelihood of this scenario. The prior probability of one in a thousand for the UFOs as aliens scenario is established, indicating the potential for strong physical evidence to sway the likelihood of this scenario.', 'The hypothesis of panspermia siblings is proposed, suggesting that alien civilizations may have originated from a stellar nursery and that they could be attempting to prevent human expansion by closely monitoring and enforcing a rule against it. The hypothesis of panspermia siblings is introduced as a potential explanation for alien civilizations, highlighting their potential motivation to prevent human expansion by enforcing a rule against it.', 'The chapter explores the notion that alien civilizations may be closely monitoring human technological advancements, such as nuclear energy and fusion, to potentially prevent human expansion, indicating that they have the capability to intervene if necessary. The possibility of alien civilizations closely monitoring human technological advancements, particularly in the realm of nuclear energy and fusion, as a means to prevent human expansion is discussed, suggesting their potential intervention if deemed necessary.']}, {'end': 6965.722, 'start': 6392.544, 'title': 'Ufo hypothesis: intermediate approach', 'summary': 'Delves into the hypothesis that explains the behavior of ufos as aliens, exploring why they opt for an intermediate approach rather than staying completely invisible or making themselves very obvious, potentially aiming to establish a high-status position without revealing too much about themselves.', 'duration': 573.178, 'highlights': ['UFOs opt for an intermediate approach rather than staying completely invisible or making themselves very obvious The chapter discusses the two extreme options UFOs could have chosen and the mystery behind their intermediate approach, raising questions about their intention to establish a high-status position without being too revealing.', 'Potential aim to establish a high-status position without revealing too much about themselves The hypothesis suggests that UFOs may be aiming to impress and convince humans of their high-status position without risking revealing aspects that could lead to negative perceptions, thus maintaining a strategic distance.', "Consideration of humans' significance and the challenge of communicating with an alien civilization The discussion focuses on the potential reasons behind UFOs' interest in human civilization, emphasizing the difficulty of communicating with a species that may have different focal points and the need to avoid causing fear or discomfort.", 'Comparison to historical strategies of impressing and gaining control over others The chapter draws parallels to historical methods of gaining influence and control, suggesting that UFOs may be utilizing a strategy aimed at establishing dominance and persuading humans to comply with their intentions.', 'Consideration of the risks associated with revealing too much about the alien civilization The discussion highlights the potential risks UFOs face in revealing too much about themselves, including the likelihood of humans finding aspects that lead to negative perceptions and hinder potential cooperation.']}, {'end': 7618.007, 'start': 6965.722, 'title': 'Panspermia and conspiracy theories', 'summary': "Discusses the concept of panspermia, the possibility of life originating on another planet and seeding earth, and explores conspiracy theories, including the plausibility of ufo sightings and the potential for large-scale conspiracies causing suffering. it also delves into the public's ignorance of certain medical facts, suggesting the possibility of information being deliberately concealed.", 'duration': 652.285, 'highlights': ['The concept of panspermia, the possibility of life originating on another planet and seeding Earth, is discussed. Discussion of panspermia theory and the possibility of life originating on another planet, seeding Earth, and explaining the complexity of life on Earth.', 'Exploration of conspiracy theories, including the plausibility of UFO sightings and the potential for large-scale conspiracies causing suffering. Exploration of conspiracy theories, including UFO sightings, large-scale conspiracies, and their potential impact on causing suffering.', "The public's ignorance of certain medical facts is mentioned, suggesting the possibility of information being deliberately concealed. Discussion of the public's ignorance of certain medical facts, the possibility of deliberate concealment of information, and the impact on public knowledge."]}], 'duration': 2195.66, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk5422347.jpg', 'highlights': ['Distinguishing between grabby aliens and UFO aliens, highlighting the need for travel capability without expansion.', 'Emphasizing the likelihood of UFO aliens being much older than humans and the unlikelihood of recent arrival, suggesting they could have reached Earth much earlier.', 'Exploring the concept of a larger sphere for explorers than colonizers, indicating the potential for visitors to collect data without immediate mass colonization.', 'The prior probability of one in a thousand for the UFOs as aliens scenario is established, indicating the potential for strong physical evidence to sway the likelihood of this scenario.', 'The hypothesis of panspermia siblings is introduced as a potential explanation for alien civilizations, highlighting their potential motivation to prevent human expansion by enforcing a rule against it.', 'The possibility of alien civilizations closely monitoring human technological advancements, particularly in the realm of nuclear energy and fusion, as a means to prevent human expansion is discussed, suggesting their potential intervention if deemed necessary.', 'The chapter discusses the two extreme options UFOs could have chosen and the mystery behind their intermediate approach, raising questions about their intention to establish a high-status position without being too revealing.', 'The hypothesis suggests that UFOs may be aiming to impress and convince humans of their high-status position without risking revealing aspects that could lead to negative perceptions, thus maintaining a strategic distance.', "The discussion focuses on the potential reasons behind UFOs' interest in human civilization, emphasizing the difficulty of communicating with a species that may have different focal points and the need to avoid causing fear or discomfort.", 'The chapter draws parallels to historical methods of gaining influence and control, suggesting that UFOs may be utilizing a strategy aimed at establishing dominance and persuading humans to comply with their intentions.', 'The discussion highlights the potential risks UFOs face in revealing too much about themselves, including the likelihood of humans finding aspects that lead to negative perceptions and hinder potential cooperation.', 'Discussion of panspermia theory and the possibility of life originating on another planet, seeding Earth, and explaining the complexity of life on Earth.', 'Exploration of conspiracy theories, including UFO sightings, large-scale conspiracies, and their potential impact on causing suffering.', "Discussion of the public's ignorance of certain medical facts, the possibility of deliberate concealment of information, and the impact on public knowledge."]}, {'end': 8503.464, 'segs': [{'end': 7666.735, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 7641.588, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 7647.172, 'text': "to do the analysis and the cold facts of what's actually happening and then to try to be careful about how we can improve.", 'start': 7641.588, 'duration': 5.584}, {'end': 7652.436, 'text': 'So our book, The Elephant in the Brain, co-authored with Kevin Simler, is about hidden motives in everyday life.', 'start': 7647.252, 'duration': 5.184}, {'end': 7659.622, 'text': 'And our first priority there is just to explain to you what are the things that you are not looking at, that you are reluctant to look at.', 'start': 7653.417, 'duration': 6.205}, {'end': 7666.735, 'text': "And many people try to take that book as a self-help book, where they're trying to improve themselves and make sure they look at more things.", 'start': 7660.589, 'duration': 6.146}], 'summary': "The book 'the elephant in the brain' reveals hidden motives in everyday life, aiming to improve self-awareness and observation skills.", 'duration': 25.147, 'max_score': 7641.588, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk7641588.jpg'}, {'end': 7852.076, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 7817.074, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 7822.216, 'text': 'Mm-hmm So, for example, hitting someone on purpose is a big, clear norm violation.', 'start': 7817.074, 'duration': 5.142}, {'end': 7826.038, 'text': 'If we do it consistently, we may be thrown out of the group, and that would mean we would die.', 'start': 7822.256, 'duration': 3.782}, {'end': 7831.4, 'text': 'Okay, so we need to be able to convince people we are not going around hitting people on purpose.', 'start': 7826.718, 'duration': 4.682}, {'end': 7839.764, 'text': 'If somebody happens to be at the other end of our fist and their face connects, that was an accident, and we need to be able to explain that.', 'start': 7832.621, 'duration': 7.143}, {'end': 7848.191, 'text': "And similarly for many other norms humans have, we are serious about these norms and we don't want people to violate them.", 'start': 7841.883, 'duration': 6.308}, {'end': 7849.893, 'text': "We find them violating, we're going to accuse them.", 'start': 7848.211, 'duration': 1.682}, {'end': 7852.076, 'text': 'But many norms have a motive component.', 'start': 7849.933, 'duration': 2.143}], 'summary': 'Consistently violating norms may lead to expulsion from the group, emphasizing the importance of adhering to social norms for survival.', 'duration': 35.002, 'max_score': 7817.074, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk7817074.jpg'}], 'start': 7618.127, 'title': 'Hidden motives and self-deception', 'summary': "Explores the 'elephant in the brain' concept, emphasizing understanding introspective taboos and discusses the role of norms, self-preservation, and self-deception in human behavior and decision-making.", 'chapters': [{'end': 7754.203, 'start': 7618.127, 'title': 'The elephant in the brain', 'summary': "Explores the concept of the 'elephant in the brain', discussing hidden motives in everyday life and the reluctance to acknowledge uncomfortable truths, emphasizing the importance of understanding introspective taboos and the challenges of self-improvement.", 'duration': 136.076, 'highlights': ["The book, 'The Elephant in the Brain', delves into hidden motives in everyday life and aims to explain the aspects that individuals are reluctant to acknowledge, emphasizing introspective taboos. hidden motives, reluctance to acknowledge uncomfortable truths, introspective taboos", "Selfishness and self-deception are described as core 'elephants' in the brain, representing taboos that individuals are reluctant to acknowledge. selfishness, self-deception, introspective taboos", 'The conscious mind is likened to the press secretary of the brain, emphasizing that individuals justify decisions to an audience rather than making them. conscious mind, decision-making process']}, {'end': 8503.464, 'start': 7756, 'title': 'Norms, self-preservation, and self-deception', 'summary': 'Discusses the crucial role of norms in human behavior, the necessity to avoid violating norms, the subconscious self-preservation motive, and the prevalence of self-deception in human decision-making, with a focus on the unconscious mind and the impact on human interactions and intellectual pursuits.', 'duration': 747.464, 'highlights': ['Humans have norms and self-preservation motives that influence their behavior, leading to the need to constantly watch and explain their actions to avoid norm violations. Existence of norms and self-preservation motives in human behavior, leading to constant monitoring and explanation of actions to avoid norm violations.', 'Self-deception is prevalent in human decision-making processes, impacting various aspects of life, including intellectual pursuits and interactions. Prevalence of self-deception in human decision-making processes, affecting intellectual pursuits and interactions.', 'The unconscious mind plays a significant role in human behavior, with the majority of mental processes being unaware and driven by social concerns and the desire for acceptance and recognition. Significant role of the unconscious mind in human behavior, driven by social concerns and the desire for acceptance and recognition.']}], 'duration': 885.337, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk7618127.jpg', 'highlights': ["The book, 'The Elephant in the Brain', delves into hidden motives in everyday life and aims to explain the aspects that individuals are reluctant to acknowledge, emphasizing introspective taboos.", "Selfishness and self-deception are described as core 'elephants' in the brain, representing taboos that individuals are reluctant to acknowledge.", 'The conscious mind is likened to the press secretary of the brain, emphasizing that individuals justify decisions to an audience rather than making them.', 'Existence of norms and self-preservation motives in human behavior, leading to constant monitoring and explanation of actions to avoid norm violations.', 'Self-deception is prevalent in human decision-making processes, impacting various aspects of life, including intellectual pursuits and interactions.', 'The unconscious mind plays a significant role in human behavior, with the majority of mental processes being unaware and driven by social concerns and the desire for acceptance and recognition.']}, {'end': 10778.036, 'segs': [{'end': 8782.966, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 8754.808, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 8758.331, 'text': 'You just have to notice them and ask yourself how can I explain those?', 'start': 8754.808, 'duration': 3.523}, {'end': 8765.156, 'text': "Often, you don't need to look at the most subtle, most you know difficult statistical evidence that might be out there.", 'start': 8759.372, 'duration': 5.784}, {'end': 8767.717, 'text': 'The simplest patterns are often enough.', 'start': 8765.556, 'duration': 2.161}, {'end': 8768.858, 'text': 'All right.', 'start': 8768.658, 'duration': 0.2}, {'end': 8772.6, 'text': "So there, there's a fundamental statement about self-deception in the book.", 'start': 8768.938, 'duration': 3.662}, {'end': 8775.321, 'text': "There's the application of that, like we just did in medicine.", 'start': 8772.74, 'duration': 2.581}, {'end': 8782.966, 'text': 'Can you steel man the argument that, uh, many of the foundational ideas in the book are wrong?', 'start': 8775.942, 'duration': 7.024}], 'summary': 'Simple patterns are often enough to notice and explain, avoiding complex statistical evidence.', 'duration': 28.158, 'max_score': 8754.808, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk8754808.jpg'}, {'end': 9005.653, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 8978.059, 'weight': 7, 'content': [{'end': 8982.381, 'text': 'And when I respond, I will have to point you to our most reliable evidence.', 'start': 8978.059, 'duration': 4.322}, {'end': 8990.185, 'text': "and ask you to consider the possibility that the literature is biased, in that when the evidence isn't as reliable,", 'start': 8983.962, 'duration': 6.223}, {'end': 8994.748, 'text': 'when they have more degrees of freedom in order to get the answer they want, they do tend to get the answer they want.', 'start': 8990.185, 'duration': 4.563}, {'end': 9003.332, 'text': "But when we get to the kind of evidence that's much harder to mess with, that's where we will see the truth be more revealed.", 'start': 8995.088, 'duration': 8.244}, {'end': 9005.653, 'text': 'So with respect to medicine.', 'start': 9003.432, 'duration': 2.221}], 'summary': 'Literature bias may lead to unreliable evidence in medicine.', 'duration': 27.594, 'max_score': 8978.059, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk8978059.jpg'}, {'end': 9035.519, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 9013.629, 'weight': 8, 'content': [{'end': 9024.014, 'text': "There's a small literature on randomized experiments of the aggregate effects of medicine where there's maybe a few half dozen or so papers,", 'start': 9013.629, 'duration': 10.385}, {'end': 9035.519, 'text': "where it would be the hardest to hide it, because it's such a straightforward experiment, done in a straightforward way, that it's hard to manipulate.", 'start': 9024.014, 'duration': 11.505}], 'summary': 'Limited literature on aggregate effects of medicine with few randomized experiments.', 'duration': 21.89, 'max_score': 9013.629, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk9013629.jpg'}, {'end': 9148.133, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 9095.187, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 9097.549, 'text': 'and we see the same pattern over and over again.', 'start': 9095.187, 'duration': 2.362}, {'end': 9101.311, 'text': "this sort of ignorance mistake just doesn't work so well.", 'start': 9097.549, 'duration': 3.762}, {'end': 9110.557, 'text': 'It also is a question of how much of the self-deception is prevalent versus foundational,', 'start': 9101.972, 'duration': 8.585}, {'end': 9114.7, 'text': "because there's a kind of implied thing where it's foundational to human nature.", 'start': 9110.557, 'duration': 4.143}, {'end': 9122.467, 'text': 'versus just a common pitfall? This is a question I have.', 'start': 9116.041, 'duration': 6.426}, {'end': 9128.673, 'text': "So maybe human progress is made by people who don't fall into the self-deception.", 'start': 9122.487, 'duration': 6.186}, {'end': 9134.598, 'text': "It's a baser aspect of human nature, but then you escape it easily if you're motivated.", 'start': 9128.693, 'duration': 5.905}, {'end': 9141.986, 'text': 'The motivational hypotheses about these self-deceptions are in terms of how it makes you look to the people around you.', 'start': 9135.919, 'duration': 6.067}, {'end': 9143.508, 'text': 'Again, the press secretary.', 'start': 9142.046, 'duration': 1.462}, {'end': 9148.133, 'text': 'So the story would be most people want to look good to the people around them.', 'start': 9144.148, 'duration': 3.985}], 'summary': 'Self-deception is prevalent in human nature, affecting human progress, but can be overcome with motivation.', 'duration': 52.946, 'max_score': 9095.187, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk9095187.jpg'}, {'end': 9207.956, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 9169.685, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 9172.587, 'text': "So I might, for example, say that that's a strategy I've taken.", 'start': 9169.685, 'duration': 2.902}, {'end': 9179.024, 'text': "I've decided that being contrarian on these things could be winning for me,", 'start': 9173.737, 'duration': 5.287}, {'end': 9187.154, 'text': "in that there's a room for a small number of people like me who have these sort of messages, who can then get more attention,", 'start': 9179.024, 'duration': 8.13}, {'end': 9189.216, 'text': "even if there's not room for most people to do that.", 'start': 9187.154, 'duration': 2.062}, {'end': 9197.525, 'text': 'And that can be explaining sort of the variety, right? Similarly, you might say, look, just look at the most obvious things.', 'start': 9190.718, 'duration': 6.807}, {'end': 9201.369, 'text': 'Most people would like to look good, right? In the sense of physically, just you look good right now.', 'start': 9197.585, 'duration': 3.784}, {'end': 9202.19, 'text': "You're wearing a nice suit.", 'start': 9201.389, 'duration': 0.801}, {'end': 9202.931, 'text': 'You have a haircut.', 'start': 9202.21, 'duration': 0.721}, {'end': 9206.334, 'text': 'You shaved, right? So, and we- I cut my own hair, by the way.', 'start': 9202.951, 'duration': 3.383}, {'end': 9207.956, 'text': 'Okay Well, then, all the more impressive.', 'start': 9206.354, 'duration': 1.602}], 'summary': 'Being contrarian can be winning, as it allows for more attention and message variety.', 'duration': 38.271, 'max_score': 9169.685, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk9169685.jpg'}, {'end': 10186.546, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 10161.862, 'weight': 6, 'content': [{'end': 10169.331, 'text': "That's a self-indulgence, or self-pursuit, at least at some point in their lives.", 'start': 10161.862, 'duration': 7.469}, {'end': 10179.261, 'text': 'The analogous observation is that university professors often have freedom and space to do a wide range of things,', 'start': 10169.551, 'duration': 9.71}, {'end': 10181.624, 'text': 'and I am certainly enjoying that as a tenured professor.', 'start': 10179.261, 'duration': 2.363}, {'end': 10186.546, 'text': "You're a really, sorry to interrupt, a really good representative of that.", 'start': 10183.005, 'duration': 3.541}], 'summary': 'University professors have freedom and space to pursue a wide range of activities, as seen in the experience of a tenured professor.', 'duration': 24.684, 'max_score': 10161.862, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk10161862.jpg'}, {'end': 10727.687, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 10705.618, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 10714.242, 'text': 'Just like hedge funds today make money by paying researchers to study firms and then making their profits by trading on those that that insight in the ordinary financial market.', 'start': 10705.618, 'duration': 8.624}, {'end': 10717.843, 'text': "And the market would, if it's efficient,", 'start': 10714.262, 'duration': 3.581}, {'end': 10724.166, 'text': 'would be able to become better and better at predicting the powerful ideas that the individual is able to generate.', 'start': 10717.843, 'duration': 6.323}, {'end': 10727.687, 'text': 'The variance around the mass of the electron neutrino would decrease with time,', 'start': 10724.446, 'duration': 3.241}], 'summary': 'Hedge funds profit from researched insights; market efficiency improves over time.', 'duration': 22.069, 'max_score': 10705.618, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk10705618.jpg'}], 'start': 8503.624, 'title': 'Healthcare and institutional behavior', 'summary': 'Explores the impact of consumer behavior on healthcare, hidden motives and self-deception in medicine, the influence of authorities, challenges of institutional incentives, and the need for better universities and research funding for productive behavior and information sharing.', 'chapters': [{'end': 8737.955, 'start': 8503.624, 'title': 'Rethinking medicine and consumer behavior', 'summary': 'Delves into the role of medicine in showing care, the impact of consumer behavior on the healthcare system, and the incentives of producers to manipulate consumer decisions.', 'duration': 234.331, 'highlights': ['Consumers prioritize medicine as a means of showing care, rather than for its health benefits, leading to a significant emphasis on medicine in society.', 'Producers, including doctors and drug companies, have clear incentives to cater to consumer demand, driving the healthcare system.', 'Producers across various industries, including medicine, are inclined to manipulate consumer decisions through lying and exaggeration to attract more customers.', 'The chapter emphasizes the need to analyze consumer behavior and historical data to understand differences in how consumers approach body repair versus auto repair.']}, {'end': 9095.187, 'start': 8737.955, 'title': 'Hidden motives & self-deception', 'summary': 'Discusses the concept of hidden motives and self-deception, highlighting how simple patterns are often enough to explain behavior, the challenges of proving hidden motives, and the biased literature in health economics favoring the effectiveness of medicine over reliable evidence showcasing the limited correlation between health and medicine.', 'duration': 357.232, 'highlights': ['The biased literature in health economics tends to support the usual points of view, leading to selection effects in publications and analysis that favor the effectiveness of medicine (millions of papers giving the impression that medicine is useful, with only a few papers on randomized experiments showing little correlation between health and medicine).', 'The chapter emphasizes that simple patterns are often enough to explain behavior, highlighting the importance of noticing and explaining obvious patterns rather than relying on difficult statistical evidence. This concept challenges the common belief that complex systems require complex models, suggesting that it can be a lot simpler than it looks.', 'The discussion addresses the challenges of proving hidden motives, explaining that people tend to pick pretenses that are somewhat plausible, making it difficult to prove hypotheses focused on local data and requiring a wider range of evidence to see past excuses and hidden motives.']}, {'end': 9692.25, 'start': 9095.187, 'title': 'Self-deception and authority', 'summary': 'Explores the prevalence of self-deception in human nature, the impact of authorities and institutions, and the tension between being maximally informative and preserving control over authority.', 'duration': 597.063, 'highlights': ['The prevalence of self-deception in human nature is explored, suggesting that most people present themselves in ways that help them look good to others. The chapter delves into the prevalence of self-deception in human nature, suggesting that most people present themselves in ways that help them look good to others, contributing to a foundational aspect of human behavior.', 'The role of authorities and institutions in enabling individuals to make less conservative choices is discussed, emphasizing the potential benefits of deferring to authorities in decision-making. The chapter discusses the role of authorities and institutions in enabling individuals to make less conservative choices, emphasizing the potential benefits of deferring to authorities in decision-making, especially in contexts such as a pandemic.', 'The tension between being maximally informative and preserving control over authority is highlighted, revealing the human tendency to prioritize maintaining control and influence over genuinely maximizing outcomes. The chapter highlights the tension between being maximally informative and preserving control over authority, revealing the human tendency to prioritize maintaining control and influence over genuinely maximizing outcomes, especially in the context of authorities and institutions.']}, {'end': 10111.605, 'start': 9692.711, 'title': 'Challenges of institutional incentives', 'summary': 'Discusses the impact of institutional incentives on individual behavior, highlighting the shift from prioritizing social good to self-preservation, and the need for better institutional structures to promote productive behavior and information sharing.', 'duration': 418.894, 'highlights': ["Economists' focus on institutional incentives and their impact on individual behavior The chapter emphasizes the influence of institutional structures on individual behavior, highlighting the shift from prioritizing social good to self-preservation, and the need for better institutional structures to promote productive behavior.", 'Critique of broken academic incentives for research The chapter critiques academic incentives for prioritizing impressive research over interesting or useful work, pointing out the flawed institutional incentives that drive academic behavior.', 'Impact of institutional failings on information sharing The discussion emphasizes the broken nature of information institutions in terms of cost-effective information collection and sharing, highlighting the need for better institutions in this regard.']}, {'end': 10778.036, 'start': 10111.605, 'title': 'Improving universities and research funding', 'summary': 'Discusses the need to improve universities and research funding, emphasizing the need to assess the value provided to students and patrons and proposing the use of prediction markets and idea futures as alternative methods for evaluation and funding allocation.', 'duration': 666.431, 'highlights': ['The chapter emphasizes the need to assess the value provided to students and patrons by universities and research funding, suggesting that the current system may result in a big waste of resources. Assessment of value provided to students and patrons, potential waste of resources', 'The use of prediction markets and idea futures is proposed as alternative methods for evaluation and funding allocation, aiming to induce more research and accomplishments while prioritizing true novelty and long-term effects on intellectual progress. Proposal for prediction markets and idea futures, focus on inducing more research and accomplishments, prioritizing true novelty and long-term effects', 'The concept of idea futures involves subsidizing betting markets to induce more research into specific questions, with the assumption that eventually the answers will be known and the bets can be paid off. Idea futures concept, subsidizing betting markets for inducing more research']}], 'duration': 2274.412, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk8503624.jpg', 'highlights': ['Consumers prioritize medicine as a means of showing care, leading to a significant emphasis on medicine in society.', 'Producers, including doctors and drug companies, have clear incentives to cater to consumer demand, driving the healthcare system.', 'The biased literature in health economics tends to support the usual points of view, leading to selection effects in publications and analysis.', 'The prevalence of self-deception in human nature is explored, suggesting that most people present themselves in ways that help them look good to others.', 'The role of authorities and institutions in enabling individuals to make less conservative choices is discussed, emphasizing the potential benefits of deferring to authorities in decision-making.', "Economists' focus on institutional incentives and their impact on individual behavior.", 'Critique of broken academic incentives for research, pointing out the flawed institutional incentives that drive academic behavior.', 'The chapter emphasizes the need to assess the value provided to students and patrons by universities and research funding, suggesting that the current system may result in a big waste of resources.', 'The use of prediction markets and idea futures is proposed as alternative methods for evaluation and funding allocation, aiming to induce more research and accomplishments while prioritizing true novelty and long-term effects on intellectual progress.']}, {'end': 11521.731, 'segs': [{'end': 10885.738, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 10860.175, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 10865.961, 'text': "You're able, as an intelligent black box word generating machine, you're able to generate a lot of sexy words.", 'start': 10860.175, 'duration': 5.786}, {'end': 10867.343, 'text': 'I like it, I love it.', 'start': 10866.142, 'duration': 1.201}, {'end': 10874.571, 'text': 'Viewquakes, which are insights which dramatically change my worldview, your worldview.', 'start': 10867.603, 'duration': 6.968}, {'end': 10876.793, 'text': 'You write.', 'start': 10875.992, 'duration': 0.801}, {'end': 10885.738, 'text': 'I loved science fiction as a child, studied physics and artificial intelligence for a long time each and now study economics and political science,', 'start': 10876.793, 'duration': 8.945}], 'summary': 'An intelligent black box word generating machine can produce a lot of sexy words, creating viewquakes that dramatically change worldviews.', 'duration': 25.563, 'max_score': 10860.175, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk10860175.jpg'}, {'end': 11297.432, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 11268.001, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 11271.845, 'text': 'Like evolution did some incredible work to create the human mind.', 'start': 11268.001, 'duration': 3.844}, {'end': 11280.596, 'text': "But then you realize, just like you have, you've talked about a bunch of simple models, that simple things can actually be extremely powerful.", 'start': 11272.246, 'duration': 8.35}, {'end': 11288.644, 'text': 'that maybe emulating the human mind is extremely difficult, but you can go a long way with a large neural network.', 'start': 11281.116, 'duration': 7.528}, {'end': 11290.966, 'text': 'You can go a long way with a dumb solution.', 'start': 11289.004, 'duration': 1.962}, {'end': 11293.308, 'text': "It's that Stuart Russell thing with the reinforcement learning.", 'start': 11291.046, 'duration': 2.262}, {'end': 11297.432, 'text': 'Holy crap, you can go quite a long way with a simple thing.', 'start': 11294.169, 'duration': 3.263}], 'summary': 'Emulating the human mind is difficult, but a large neural network or a dumb solution can still be powerful.', 'duration': 29.431, 'max_score': 11268.001, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk11268001.jpg'}, {'end': 11477.897, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 11451.016, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 11457.444, 'text': "So let's take the biggest possible scope, all of human technology, right? The entire human economy.", 'start': 11451.016, 'duration': 6.428}, {'end': 11465.713, 'text': 'So the entire economy is composed of many industries, each of which have many products with many different technologies supporting each one.', 'start': 11457.984, 'duration': 7.729}, {'end': 11474.393, 'text': 'At that scale, I think we can accept that most innovations are a small fraction of the total.', 'start': 11467.946, 'duration': 6.447}, {'end': 11477.897, 'text': 'That is usually have relatively gradual overall progress.', 'start': 11474.613, 'duration': 3.284}], 'summary': 'Human technology and economy consist of numerous industries and products, with most innovations being a small fraction of the total, leading to gradual progress.', 'duration': 26.881, 'max_score': 11451.016, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk11451016.jpg'}], 'start': 10778.637, 'title': 'Betting markets, rating systems, and viewquakes', 'summary': "Explores the concept of betting markets and the importance of rating systems, emphasizing the understanding of customers and their needs. it also discusses 'viewquakes' in physics, ai, economics, and political science, highlighting major paradigm shifts and the potential impact on human civilization.", 'chapters': [{'end': 10839.939, 'start': 10778.637, 'title': 'Betting markets and rating systems', 'summary': 'Delves into the initial concept of betting markets on key parameters, but emphasizes the importance of rating people and their abilities, as it is what customers truly care about, highlighting the significance of understanding customers and the product.', 'duration': 61.302, 'highlights': ['The system is built on rating people and ranking them, as it is what customers mostly care about.', "The initial concept was to have betting markets on key parameters, but it was realized that what people really care about is just who's how good.", 'Emphasizes the importance of understanding customers and the product, and how every major area with specialists must have customers from elsewhere paying for it.']}, {'end': 11521.731, 'start': 10840.299, 'title': 'Viewquakes in physics, ai, economics, and political science', 'summary': "Discusses the concept of 'viewquakes' and highlights major paradigm shifts in physics, artificial intelligence, and the potential impact of individuals on human civilization, emphasizing the complexity and potential trajectories of achieving human-level artificial intelligence.", 'duration': 681.432, 'highlights': ['The paradigm shifts in physics, particularly in special relativity and quantum mechanics, are discussed, revealing the fundamental shocks that have dramatically changed the understanding of the physical world. Special relativity and quantum mechanics have led to fundamental shocks in the understanding of time, space, and particle behavior.', "The realization of the complexity of human minds and the vast subconscious processes involved serves as the biggest 'viewquake' in artificial intelligence, challenging the simplistic assumptions and emphasizing the long road to achieving human-level artificial intelligence. The complexity of human minds and the challenging road to achieving human-level artificial intelligence are highlighted.", 'The discussion of the potential impact of individuals on human civilization over time and the rarity of innovations that substantially affect the total economy is explored, emphasizing the complexity and uncertainty of achieving major technological advancements. The potential impact of individuals on civilization and the rarity of innovations that substantially affect the total economy are emphasized.']}], 'duration': 743.094, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk10778637.jpg', 'highlights': ['The system is built on rating people and ranking them, as it is what customers mostly care about.', 'Emphasizes the importance of understanding customers and the product, and how every major area with specialists must have customers from elsewhere paying for it.', "The initial concept was to have betting markets on key parameters, but it was realized that what people really care about is just who's how good.", 'The paradigm shifts in physics, particularly in special relativity and quantum mechanics, are discussed, revealing the fundamental shocks that have dramatically changed the understanding of the physical world.', "The realization of the complexity of human minds and the vast subconscious processes involved serves as the biggest 'viewquake' in artificial intelligence, challenging the simplistic assumptions and emphasizing the long road to achieving human-level artificial intelligence.", 'The discussion of the potential impact of individuals on human civilization over time and the rarity of innovations that substantially affect the total economy is explored, emphasizing the complexity and uncertainty of achieving major technological advancements.']}, {'end': 12775.163, 'segs': [{'end': 11693.275, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 11665.509, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 11670.534, 'text': 'Well, if you have a history of prior chunkiness, that could be your best estimate for future chunkiness.', 'start': 11665.509, 'duration': 5.025}, {'end': 11673.758, 'text': 'So, for example, I mean even at the level of the world economy, right?', 'start': 11670.735, 'duration': 3.023}, {'end': 11674.959, 'text': "We've had this.", 'start': 11674.178, 'duration': 0.781}, {'end': 11677.442, 'text': 'what 10,000 years of civilization?', 'start': 11674.959, 'duration': 2.483}, {'end': 11678.603, 'text': "Well, that's only a short time.", 'start': 11677.482, 'duration': 1.121}, {'end': 11685.51, 'text': "You might say, oh, that doesn't predict future chunkiness, but it looks relatively steady and consistent.", 'start': 11679.204, 'duration': 6.306}, {'end': 11693.275, 'text': "We can say even in computer science, we've had 70 years of computer science, we have enough data to look at chunkiness in computer science.", 'start': 11686.451, 'duration': 6.824}], 'summary': 'Previous chunkiness history can predict future trends, even in computer science with 70 years of data.', 'duration': 27.766, 'max_score': 11665.509, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk11665509.jpg'}, {'end': 12244.164, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 12213.233, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 12214.673, 'text': "We're gonna have to look into that.", 'start': 12213.233, 'duration': 1.44}, {'end': 12220.896, 'text': 'All right, two more fields that I would like to force and twist your arm to.', 'start': 12215.234, 'duration': 5.662}, {'end': 12223.737, 'text': 'To look for viewquakes and for beautiful ideas, economics.', 'start': 12220.936, 'duration': 2.801}, {'end': 12233.538, 'text': "What is a beautiful idea to you about economics? You've mentioned a lot of them, right? Sure.", 'start': 12224.377, 'duration': 9.161}, {'end': 12238.641, 'text': "So, as you said before, there's gonna be the first view cake most people encounter.", 'start': 12234.178, 'duration': 4.463}, {'end': 12244.164, 'text': "that makes the biggest difference on average in the world, because that's the only thing most people ever see is the first one.", 'start': 12238.641, 'duration': 5.523}], 'summary': 'Discussing the importance of first impressions and beautiful economic ideas.', 'duration': 30.931, 'max_score': 12213.233, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk12213233.jpg'}, {'end': 12545.519, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 12513.336, 'weight': 4, 'content': [{'end': 12518.598, 'text': "they say they want to make the world better, they make their city better, their country better, and that's not their priority.", 'start': 12513.336, 'duration': 5.262}, {'end': 12522, 'text': 'What is it? They want to show loyalty to their allies.', 'start': 12519.399, 'duration': 2.601}, {'end': 12524.64, 'text': "They want to show their people they're on their side.", 'start': 12522.7, 'duration': 1.94}, {'end': 12530.823, 'text': "Yes There are various tribes they're in, that's their primary priority and they do accomplish that.", 'start': 12524.661, 'duration': 6.162}, {'end': 12535.216, 'text': 'Yeah And the tribes are usually color coded conveniently enough.', 'start': 12531.463, 'duration': 3.753}, {'end': 12545.519, 'text': "Um, What would you say, you know, it's the Churchill question, democracy's the crappiest form of government, but it's the best one we got.", 'start': 12536.26, 'duration': 9.259}], 'summary': 'Leaders prioritize loyalty to allies and their tribes, achieving unity and support.', 'duration': 32.183, 'max_score': 12513.336, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk12513336.jpg'}, {'end': 12673.628, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 12652.501, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 12661.825, 'text': 'Some of the fun is on the surface and- I actually think this is true of many of the most successful, most interesting people you see in the world.', 'start': 12652.501, 'duration': 9.324}, {'end': 12669.205, 'text': "They have put so much effort into the surface that they've constructed, and that's where they put all their energy.", 'start': 12663.44, 'duration': 5.765}, {'end': 12673.628, 'text': 'So somebody might be a statesman or an actor or something else,', 'start': 12669.625, 'duration': 4.003}], 'summary': 'Many successful people focus on constructing and maintaining their public image.', 'duration': 21.127, 'max_score': 12652.501, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk12652501.jpg'}, {'end': 12789.471, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 12749.701, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 12753.486, 'text': 'And so those people, it probably is the actual person persona that they are.', 'start': 12749.701, 'duration': 3.785}, {'end': 12755.828, 'text': 'Yeah Or has become that over time.', 'start': 12753.846, 'duration': 1.982}, {'end': 12757.669, 'text': 'Clint Eastwood would be one.', 'start': 12756.688, 'duration': 0.981}, {'end': 12759.03, 'text': 'I think of Tom Hanks as another.', 'start': 12757.689, 'duration': 1.341}, {'end': 12760.812, 'text': 'I think they just always play the same person.', 'start': 12759.05, 'duration': 1.762}, {'end': 12764.014, 'text': 'You and I are just both surface players.', 'start': 12761.192, 'duration': 2.822}, {'end': 12774.723, 'text': "You're the fun, brilliant thinker and I am the suit wearing idiot full of silly questions.", 'start': 12764.635, 'duration': 10.088}, {'end': 12775.163, 'text': 'All right.', 'start': 12774.843, 'duration': 0.32}, {'end': 12789.471, 'text': "That said, let's put on your wise, sage hat and ask you what advice would you give to young people today in high school and college about life,", 'start': 12776.604, 'duration': 12.867}], 'summary': 'Identifying personas in famous actors; discussing advice for young people.', 'duration': 39.77, 'max_score': 12749.701, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk12749701.jpg'}], 'start': 11521.811, 'title': 'Innovations and chunkiness in technology', 'summary': 'Explores the economic impact of innovations, citing the example of lawnmower innovations, discusses the chunkiness of technological advancements in military technology and ai, highlighting continuous improvement in algorithms and hardware, delves into the chunkiness of emulated minds and human-level ai, and emphasizes the power of markets in economics and the need to explore alternative political institutions.', 'chapters': [{'end': 11558.165, 'start': 11521.811, 'title': 'Economic scale and innovation impact', 'summary': 'Discusses the impact of innovations at different scales, highlighting the significant effect of individual innovations on smaller scales, using the example of lawnmower innovations.', 'duration': 36.354, 'highlights': ['Individual innovations have a larger effect at smaller scales than at the scale of the whole economy.', 'Specific innovations, such as those in lawnmowers, can have a significant impact on their respective technology space, potentially transforming the task they are designed for.']}, {'end': 11823.245, 'start': 11558.225, 'title': 'The chunkiness of technology', 'summary': 'Discusses the chunkiness of technological advancements, particularly in military technology and ai, highlighting the relatively small impact of individual innovations and the continuous improvement in algorithms and hardware over time.', 'duration': 265.02, 'highlights': ['Military technology has mostly made modest differences to the overall prominence of the US military, with no single weapon significantly altering its strength in the last 70 years. The discussion emphasizes the limited impact of individual military technologies on the overall strength of the US military, with no significant changes attributed to any single weapon in the past 70 years.', 'The chunkiness of AI is explored, considering the fraction of tasks that are mental and the potential impact of key innovations in achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The concept of chunkiness in AI is examined, with a focus on the proportion of mental tasks and the potential impact of key innovations in advancing towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).', 'The continuous improvement in algorithms and hardware is illustrated, with the discussion highlighting the scalability and power of simple algorithms in the context of a scalable environment. The continuous improvement in algorithms and hardware is emphasized, particularly showcasing the scalability and power of simple algorithms in a scalable context, contributing to their chunkiness.']}, {'end': 12213.213, 'start': 11824.425, 'title': 'Chunkiness of ai and emulated minds', 'summary': 'Delves into the chunkiness of emulated minds and human-level ai, highlighting the need for full brain emulation, the economic impact of emulations, and the correlation between chunkiness and time in developing emulatable robots.', 'duration': 388.788, 'highlights': ['The need for full brain emulation is emphasized, as emulating various brain cells with close input-output patterns is crucial for achieving the overall behavior and functionality, indicating the chunkiness of emulated minds. Importance of full brain emulation, close input-output patterns, achieving overall behavior and functionality', 'The economic impact of emulations is discussed, suggesting that an effective emulation enabling substitution for humans would be a huge economic product, with potential initial costs of a billion dollars each, impacting the adoption of emulations. Economic impact, potential initial costs, adoption of emulations', 'The correlation between chunkiness and time in developing emulatable robots is examined, emphasizing the chunkiness as a measure of suddenness and the continuous difficulty in achieving the task, providing insights into the development timeline. Correlation between chunkiness and time, measure of suddenness, continuous difficulty']}, {'end': 12775.163, 'start': 12213.233, 'title': 'Beautiful ideas in economics and political science', 'summary': 'Discusses beautiful ideas in economics and political science, emphasizing the power of markets as the first viewquake in economics and the failure to explore alternative political institutions as the key failing in political systems.', 'duration': 561.93, 'highlights': ["The first viewquake in economics is the power of markets, which acts as a good first approximation for a wide range of products and services, with most people's intuitions for how to limit markets actually causing more harm, rather than benefiting them.", 'The failure to explore alternative political institutions is the key failing in political systems, as existing institutions sit in a vast space of possible institutions, and the lack of exploration and testing of these proposals prevents the discovery of much better institutions than the ones currently in use.', 'Rational agents would not knowingly disagree, making the rationality of disagreement in economics a puzzling fact, as humans often disagree, indicating a mismatch between rationality and human behavior.', "The main issue in politics is the inability to arrive at a consensus due to people's ignorance of the consequences of policy, and the underlying failure behind most political failures is the absence of trustworthy authorities providing informed and reliable guidance for decision-making.", 'The priority of individuals in politics is to show loyalty to their tribes rather than making the world better, and the failure to prioritize and create trustworthy authorities leads to the perpetuation of political failures and conflicts.', 'Authenticity is mirrored in the surface, where the depths reflect the surface, and those who live the role they portray, like Clint Eastwood and Tom Hanks, demonstrate authenticity, while actors who put on manufactured surfaces and try on different masks lack authenticity.']}], 'duration': 1253.352, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk11521811.jpg', 'highlights': ['The economic impact of emulations is discussed, suggesting that an effective emulation enabling substitution for humans would be a huge economic product, with potential initial costs of a billion dollars each, impacting the adoption of emulations.', 'The continuous improvement in algorithms and hardware is illustrated, with the discussion highlighting the scalability and power of simple algorithms in the context of a scalable environment.', 'The chunkiness of AI is explored, considering the fraction of tasks that are mental and the potential impact of key innovations in achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).', 'The specific innovations, such as those in lawnmowers, can have a significant impact on their respective technology space, potentially transforming the task they are designed for.', "The first viewquake in economics is the power of markets, which acts as a good first approximation for a wide range of products and services, with most people's intuitions for how to limit markets actually causing more harm, rather than benefiting them."]}, {'end': 14306.856, 'segs': [{'end': 12889.147, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 12829.589, 'weight': 4, 'content': [{'end': 12835.292, 'text': 'Yes, it might be better if you find a way to combine your career and your interests in a way that gives you more time and energy,', 'start': 12829.589, 'duration': 5.703}, {'end': 12837.353, 'text': 'but there are often big compromises there as well.', 'start': 12835.292, 'duration': 2.061}, {'end': 12844.956, 'text': 'So if you have a passion about some topic or some thing that you think just is worth pursuing, you can just do it.', 'start': 12838.713, 'duration': 6.243}, {'end': 12846.577, 'text': "You don't need other people's approval.", 'start': 12844.996, 'duration': 1.581}, {'end': 12852.473, 'text': 'And you can just start doing whatever it is you think is worth doing.', 'start': 12848.652, 'duration': 3.821}, {'end': 12857.614, 'text': 'It might take you decades, but decades are enough to make enormous progress on most all interesting things.', 'start': 12852.513, 'duration': 5.101}, {'end': 12860.175, 'text': "And don't worry about the commitment of it.", 'start': 12858.574, 'duration': 1.601}, {'end': 12864.236, 'text': "I mean, that's a lot of what people worry about is, well, there's so many options.", 'start': 12860.195, 'duration': 4.041}, {'end': 12869.237, 'text': 'And if I choose a thing and I stick with it, you know, I sacrifice all the other paths I could have taken.', 'start': 12864.556, 'duration': 4.681}, {'end': 12870.077, 'text': 'But I mean so.', 'start': 12869.417, 'duration': 0.66}, {'end': 12879.862, 'text': 'I switched my career at the age of 34 with two kids age zero and two went back to grad school in social science after being a software research software engineer.', 'start': 12870.077, 'duration': 9.785}, {'end': 12883.584, 'text': "So it's quite possible to change your mind later in life.", 'start': 12880.803, 'duration': 2.781}, {'end': 12889.147, 'text': 'How can you have an age of zero? Less than one.', 'start': 12885.045, 'duration': 4.102}], 'summary': "Follow your passion, don't fear commitment, and change career paths later in life - as evidenced by a career switch at 34 with two young children.", 'duration': 59.558, 'max_score': 12829.589, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk12829589.jpg'}, {'end': 13283.367, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 13259.998, 'weight': 5, 'content': [{'end': 13267.281, 'text': "even so, though, still most of our influence in the future has probably happened being being kids, even though we've accumulated more ways,", 'start': 13259.998, 'duration': 7.283}, {'end': 13268.802, 'text': 'other ways to do it.', 'start': 13267.281, 'duration': 1.521}, {'end': 13276.504, 'text': 'you mean, at scale, i guess, the depth of influence like really, how much of much effort, how much of yourself you really put another human being?', 'start': 13268.802, 'duration': 7.702}, {'end': 13283.367, 'text': 'do you mean both the raising of a kid or you mean raw genetic information?', 'start': 13276.504, 'duration': 6.863}], 'summary': 'Influence on future likely happens during childhood, despite accumulated knowledge and efforts.', 'duration': 23.369, 'max_score': 13259.998, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk13259998.jpg'}, {'end': 13583.958, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 13559.864, 'weight': 7, 'content': [{'end': 13566.988, 'text': "But there's some aspects about your emotional stance in a situation that's actually just hard to imagine or even remember.", 'start': 13559.864, 'duration': 7.124}, {'end': 13571.471, 'text': "You can often remember an emotion only when you're in a similar sort of emotion situation.", 'start': 13567.448, 'duration': 4.023}, {'end': 13575.213, 'text': "And otherwise, you just can't bring the emotion to your mind.", 'start': 13571.591, 'duration': 3.622}, {'end': 13579.135, 'text': "And you can't even imagine it, right? So there's certain kinds of imagination.", 'start': 13575.893, 'duration': 3.242}, {'end': 13580.316, 'text': 'emotions you can have.', 'start': 13579.435, 'duration': 0.881}, {'end': 13583.958, 'text': "And when you're in that emotion, you can know that you have it and you can have a name and it's associated.", 'start': 13580.356, 'duration': 3.602}], 'summary': 'Emotions can be hard to remember or imagine, only recalling them in similar situations.', 'duration': 24.094, 'max_score': 13559.864, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk13559864.jpg'}, {'end': 13651.371, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 13622.431, 'weight': 8, 'content': [{'end': 13625.573, 'text': 'Right, but you need to remember that situation in some sort of complete package.', 'start': 13622.431, 'duration': 3.142}, {'end': 13630.737, 'text': "Yes You can't just take one part off of it, and then if you get the whole package again, if you remember the whole feeling.", 'start': 13625.753, 'duration': 4.984}, {'end': 13637.082, 'text': 'Yes, or some fundamental aspect of that whole experience that aroused, from which the feeling arose.', 'start': 13631.157, 'duration': 5.925}, {'end': 13643.706, 'text': 'And actually the feeling is probably different in some way could be more pleasant or less pleasant than the feeling you felt originally.', 'start': 13637.362, 'duration': 6.344}, {'end': 13647.009, 'text': 'And that morphs over time every time you replay that memory.', 'start': 13644.087, 'duration': 2.922}, {'end': 13648.089, 'text': 'It is interesting.', 'start': 13647.389, 'duration': 0.7}, {'end': 13651.371, 'text': "You're not able to replay the feeling perfectly.", 'start': 13648.129, 'duration': 3.242}], 'summary': 'Memories evolve over time, feelings change, and cannot be replayed perfectly.', 'duration': 28.94, 'max_score': 13622.431, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk13622431.jpg'}, {'end': 14145.345, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 14115.095, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 14118.876, 'text': 'Do you think immortality is something that you would like to have?', 'start': 14115.095, 'duration': 3.781}, {'end': 14126.857, 'text': "Well, I mean, just like infinity, I mean you can't know until forever, which means never right?", 'start': 14120.894, 'duration': 5.963}, {'end': 14130.378, 'text': 'So all you can, really, you know, the better choice is at each moment.', 'start': 14126.977, 'duration': 3.401}, {'end': 14131.119, 'text': 'do you wanna keep going??', 'start': 14130.378, 'duration': 0.741}, {'end': 14134.72, 'text': 'So I would like, at every moment, to have the option to keep going.', 'start': 14131.739, 'duration': 2.981}, {'end': 14145.345, 'text': 'The interesting thing about human experience is that the way you phrase it is exactly right.', 'start': 14136.581, 'duration': 8.764}], 'summary': 'The speaker expresses a desire for the option of immortality at every moment, emphasizing the value of choice in human experience.', 'duration': 30.25, 'max_score': 14115.095, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk14115095.jpg'}, {'end': 14242.756, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 14199.243, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 14204.107, 'text': "And at a later age, I could decide that I'd rather replace myself with a new copy from a younger age.", 'start': 14199.243, 'duration': 4.864}, {'end': 14208.931, 'text': 'So does a brain emulation still operate in the physical space?', 'start': 14204.828, 'duration': 4.103}, {'end': 14209.632, 'text': 'so can we do?', 'start': 14208.931, 'duration': 0.701}, {'end': 14219.458, 'text': 'what do you think about the metaverse and operating in virtual reality so we can conjure up, not just emulate, not just your own brain and body,', 'start': 14209.632, 'duration': 9.826}, {'end': 14220.959, 'text': 'but the entirety of the environment?', 'start': 14219.458, 'duration': 1.501}, {'end': 14225.542, 'text': 'Well, most brain emulations will in fact expose most of their time in virtual reality.', 'start': 14220.999, 'duration': 4.543}, {'end': 14230.586, 'text': "But they wouldn't think of it as virtual reality, they would just think of it as their usual reality.", 'start': 14226.143, 'duration': 4.443}, {'end': 14235.63, 'text': 'I mean, the thing to notice, I think, in our world, most of us spend most time indoors.', 'start': 14231.326, 'duration': 4.304}, {'end': 14242.756, 'text': 'And indoors, we are surrounded by walls covered with paint and floors covered with tile or rugs.', 'start': 14236.511, 'duration': 6.245}], 'summary': 'Brain emulations spend most of their time in virtual reality, perceiving it as their usual reality.', 'duration': 43.513, 'max_score': 14199.243, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk14199243.jpg'}], 'start': 12776.604, 'title': 'Pursuing passion and life wisdom', 'summary': "Emphasizes pursuing passion, embracing change, and not needing others' approval for a successful career. it also discusses effective learning, the value of having children, and the influence of emotions. additionally, it explores cryonics, brain emulation, and virtual reality for potential immortality and reduced suffering.", 'chapters': [{'end': 12889.147, 'start': 12776.604, 'title': 'Advice for young people', 'summary': "Emphasizes the importance of pursuing one's passion, embracing change, and not needing others' approval in shaping a successful and fulfilling career and life, citing personal experiences and societal resources.", 'duration': 112.543, 'highlights': ["The chapter stresses the significance of pursuing one's passion and not needing others' approval, highlighting the ability to make significant progress over decades (e.g., switching careers at 34 with two young children).", "It emphasizes the flexibility to change one's path later in life, as demonstrated by the speaker's transition from a software engineer to graduate school in social science at the age of 34 with young children.", 'The chapter advises young people to consider combining their career with their interests to manage time and energy effectively, acknowledging potential compromises in the process.']}, {'end': 13197.904, 'start': 12891.108, 'title': 'Effective learning and life wisdom', 'summary': 'Emphasizes the importance of reading textbooks and review articles for effective learning, advises on the best time to have the most significant impact in life, and highlights the value of having children for a meaningful life.', 'duration': 306.796, 'highlights': ['The importance of reading textbooks and review articles for effective learning Reading textbooks and review articles is emphasized as the best way to learn, with an emphasis on subjects like biology and algorithms, and the recommendation to focus on technical fields and homework problems.', 'The best time to have the most significant impact in life The usual human trajectory of productivity rising with time, reaching its peak around the age of 40-50, is advised, with the emphasis on building up resources and abilities before expecting the biggest impact at that age.', "The value of having children for a meaningful life Having children is highlighted as a source of meaning in life, often sacrificing happiness for greater meaning, and the magical aspect of raising kids and instilling one's intellect in them is mentioned."]}, {'end': 14038.008, 'start': 13198.905, 'title': 'Influencing the future and understanding emotions', 'summary': 'Discusses the influence of having children on the future and the difficulty in understanding emotions, as well as the potential impact of digital cloning on personal experiences and relationships.', 'duration': 839.103, 'highlights': ['The main way people have influenced the future is by having children, with raw genetics accounting for more than half of influence even in the modern world. Having children has been the primary way people influence the future, with raw genetics contributing to over half of this influence, even in the current technological age.', 'Understanding emotions is challenging as certain emotional experiences are hard to imagine or remember, and the role of love in the human condition is not clearly understood. Certain emotional experiences are hard to imagine or recall, and the role of love in the human condition remains ambiguous, making it challenging to comprehend our emotional needs.', 'The potential impact of digital cloning on personal experiences and relationships is discussed, including ethical conundrums and the need for new choices and negotiations. The potential consequences of digital cloning on personal experiences and relationships are explored, highlighting ethical dilemmas and the necessity for new decisions and negotiations.']}, {'end': 14306.856, 'start': 14039.09, 'title': 'Cryonics and immortality', 'summary': 'Discusses the concept of cryonics as a chance for immortality, with a 5% shot at brain emulation, and the potential of living in a virtual reality metaverse, while emphasizing the subjective reality of virtual environments and the potential for brain emulation to offer more options and reduce suffering.', 'duration': 267.766, 'highlights': ['Cryonics involves freezing the body or head in the hopes of future revival, offering a 5% chance at brain emulation for immortality. The speaker is a cryonics customer, taking a long shot chance at living a longer life through cryonics and brain emulation, with an estimated 5% possibility of success.', 'Brain emulation scenario may offer immortality through living in a computer simulation, potentially reducing suffering and offering more options for preserving and replacing oneself at different ages. The concept of brain emulation is discussed as a potential pathway to immortality, offering the option to live in a computer simulation and make copies of oneself at various ages, potentially reducing suffering and providing more choices for existence.', 'The subjective reality of virtual environments is compared to the constructed artificiality of our everyday surroundings, emphasizing that a virtual reality environment can be real and comfortable for the individual. The speaker highlights the subjective nature of virtual reality, comparing it to the constructed artificial environment of our everyday surroundings, emphasizing that a virtual reality environment can be real and comfortable for an individual, despite its artificiality.']}], 'duration': 1530.252, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk12776604.jpg', 'highlights': ["The chapter emphasizes pursuing passion and not needing others' approval, highlighting significant progress over decades (e.g., switching careers at 34 with two young children).", 'The chapter advises young people to consider combining their career with their interests to manage time and energy effectively, acknowledging potential compromises in the process.', 'The importance of reading textbooks and review articles for effective learning, with an emphasis on subjects like biology and algorithms, and the recommendation to focus on technical fields and homework problems.', 'The usual human trajectory of productivity rising with time, reaching its peak around the age of 40-50, is advised, with the emphasis on building up resources and abilities before expecting the biggest impact at that age.', "Having children is highlighted as a source of meaning in life, often sacrificing happiness for greater meaning, and the magical aspect of raising kids and instilling one's intellect in them is mentioned.", 'Having children has been the primary way people influence the future, with raw genetics contributing to over half of this influence, even in the current technological age.', 'Certain emotional experiences are hard to imagine or recall, and the role of love in the human condition remains ambiguous, making it challenging to comprehend our emotional needs.', 'The potential consequences of digital cloning on personal experiences and relationships are explored, highlighting ethical dilemmas and the necessity for new decisions and negotiations.', 'The speaker is a cryonics customer, taking a long shot chance at living a longer life through cryonics and brain emulation, with an estimated 5% possibility of success.', 'The concept of brain emulation is discussed as a potential pathway to immortality, offering the option to live in a computer simulation and make copies of oneself at various ages, potentially reducing suffering and providing more choices for existence.', 'The speaker highlights the subjective nature of virtual reality, comparing it to the constructed artificial environment of our everyday surroundings, emphasizing that a virtual reality environment can be real and comfortable for an individual, despite its artificiality.']}, {'end': 15201.345, 'segs': [{'end': 14631.361, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 14601.003, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 14601.944, 'text': "But yeah, you're right.", 'start': 14601.003, 'duration': 0.941}, {'end': 14608.93, 'text': "I mean, just if you look at the mass of entertainment, movies, and games, it's focusing on the present, recent, past.", 'start': 14602.004, 'duration': 6.926}, {'end': 14610.311, 'text': 'And maybe some..', 'start': 14609.371, 'duration': 0.94}, {'end': 14612.634, 'text': 'I mean, where does science fiction fit into this? Because..', 'start': 14610.311, 'duration': 2.323}, {'end': 14619.095, 'text': "It's sort of what is science fiction?", 'start': 14614.613, 'duration': 4.482}, {'end': 14628.9, 'text': "I mean it's a mix of the past and the present and some kind of manipulation of that to make it more efficient for us to ask deep philosophical questions about humanity.", 'start': 14619.115, 'duration': 9.785}, {'end': 14631.361, 'text': 'So the closest genre to science fiction is clearly fantasy.', 'start': 14628.92, 'duration': 2.441}], 'summary': 'Entertainment industry focuses on present, past, recent. science fiction blends past, present for deep questions. closest genre is fantasy.', 'duration': 30.358, 'max_score': 14601.003, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk14601003.jpg'}, {'end': 14828.323, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 14797.952, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 14803.955, 'text': 'Sure, but if we just look at the entire history, if we just look at the entire history of everything, we just say sure, but most things are real,', 'start': 14797.952, 'duration': 6.003}, {'end': 14805.336, 'text': "most things aren't fantasies, right?", 'start': 14803.955, 'duration': 1.381}, {'end': 14807.197, 'text': 'Therefore the chance that my thing is real, right?', 'start': 14805.376, 'duration': 1.821}, {'end': 14810.598, 'text': 'So the simulation argument works stronger about sort of the past.', 'start': 14807.237, 'duration': 3.361}, {'end': 14813.46, 'text': "We say, ah, but there's more future people than there are today.", 'start': 14810.619, 'duration': 2.841}, {'end': 14819.923, 'text': 'So you, being in the past or the future, makes you special relative to them, which makes you more likely to be in a simulation.', 'start': 14813.94, 'duration': 5.983}, {'end': 14828.323, 'text': "right?. If we're just taking the full count and saying in all creatures ever, what percentage are in simulations? Probably no more than 10%.", 'start': 14819.923, 'duration': 8.4}], 'summary': 'Simulation argument suggests less than 10% in simulations.', 'duration': 30.371, 'max_score': 14797.952, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk14797952.jpg'}, {'end': 14979.124, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 14950.289, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 14953.854, 'text': "But we can't summarize it very well and we don't even understand it very well.", 'start': 14950.289, 'duration': 3.565}, {'end': 14955.236, 'text': "That's who we are.", 'start': 14954.515, 'duration': 0.721}, {'end': 14959.502, 'text': "And often we find ourselves in a situation where we don't feel very motivated, we don't know why.", 'start': 14955.817, 'duration': 3.685}, {'end': 14962.667, 'text': "In other situations, we find ourselves very motivated and we don't know why either.", 'start': 14959.562, 'duration': 3.105}, {'end': 14972.46, 'text': "And so that's the nature of being a human of the sort that we are, because, even though we can think abstractly and reason abstractly,", 'start': 14965.256, 'duration': 7.204}, {'end': 14975.202, 'text': 'this package of motivations is just opaque and a mess.', 'start': 14972.46, 'duration': 2.742}, {'end': 14979.124, 'text': "And that's what it means to be a human today and the motivation.", 'start': 14975.982, 'duration': 3.142}], 'summary': 'Humans experience varying levels of motivation, often without understanding the reasons behind it.', 'duration': 28.835, 'max_score': 14950.289, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk14950289.jpg'}, {'end': 15197.883, 'src': 'heatmap', 'start': 15058.762, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 15064.866, 'text': 'Under that theory, we should sit and talk about what we want the future to be, have some conferences, have some conventions, discussion things,', 'start': 15058.762, 'duration': 6.104}, {'end': 15068.889, 'text': 'vote on it, maybe, and then hand out off to the implementation people to make the future.', 'start': 15064.866, 'duration': 4.023}, {'end': 15070.73, 'text': "the way we've decided it should be.", 'start': 15069.489, 'duration': 1.241}, {'end': 15076.634, 'text': "That's not the actual process that's changed the world over history up to this point.", 'start': 15072.511, 'duration': 4.123}, {'end': 15080.536, 'text': 'It has not been the result of us deciding what we want and making it happen.', 'start': 15076.834, 'duration': 3.702}, {'end': 15083.278, 'text': 'In our individual lives, we can do that.', 'start': 15081.517, 'duration': 1.761}, {'end': 15086.6, 'text': 'We might decide what career we want or where we want to live, who we want to live with.', 'start': 15083.478, 'duration': 3.122}, {'end': 15093.104, 'text': "In our individual lives, we often do slowly make our lives better according to our plan and our things, but that's not the whole world.", 'start': 15086.96, 'duration': 6.144}, {'end': 15101.975, 'text': 'The whole world so far has mostly been a competitive world where things happen if anybody anywhere chooses to adopt them and they have an advantage.', 'start': 15094.551, 'duration': 7.424}, {'end': 15105.536, 'text': 'And then it spreads and other people are forced to adopt it by competitive pressures.', 'start': 15102.395, 'duration': 3.141}, {'end': 15109.118, 'text': "So that's the kind of analysis I can use to predict the future.", 'start': 15106.397, 'duration': 2.721}, {'end': 15110.879, 'text': 'And I do use that to predict the future.', 'start': 15109.398, 'duration': 1.481}, {'end': 15112.5, 'text': "It doesn't tell us it'll be a future we like.", 'start': 15110.899, 'duration': 1.601}, {'end': 15113.801, 'text': "It just tells us what it'll be.", 'start': 15112.68, 'duration': 1.121}, {'end': 15117.886, 'text': "And it'll be one where we're trying to maximize the number of our descendants.", 'start': 15114.864, 'duration': 3.022}, {'end': 15121.388, 'text': "And we know that abstractly and directly, and it's not opaque.", 'start': 15117.926, 'duration': 3.462}, {'end': 15133.354, 'text': "With some probability that's non-zero, that will lead us to become grabby in expanding aggressively out into the cosmos until we meet other aliens.", 'start': 15121.768, 'duration': 11.586}, {'end': 15134.835, 'text': "The timing isn't clear.", 'start': 15133.834, 'duration': 1.001}, {'end': 15136.796, 'text': 'We might become grabby, and then this happens.', 'start': 15134.875, 'duration': 1.921}, {'end': 15142.359, 'text': "These are, grabbiness and this are both the results of competition, but it's less clear which happens first.", 'start': 15137.176, 'duration': 5.183}, {'end': 15146.56, 'text': 'Does this future excite you or scare you??', 'start': 15144.397, 'duration': 2.163}, {'end': 15148.142, 'text': 'How do you feel about this whole thing?', 'start': 15146.82, 'duration': 1.322}, {'end': 15151.107, 'text': 'Well again, I told you, compared to sort of a dead cosmology,', 'start': 15148.162, 'duration': 2.945}, {'end': 15156.194, 'text': "at least it's energizing and having a living story with real actors and characters and agendas, right?", 'start': 15151.107, 'duration': 5.087}, {'end': 15160.52, 'text': "Yeah, and that's one hell of a fun universe to live in.", 'start': 15156.877, 'duration': 3.643}, {'end': 15168.728, 'text': "Robin, you're one of the most fascinating, fun people to talk to, brilliant, humble, systematic in your analysis.", 'start': 15160.921, 'duration': 7.807}, {'end': 15169.989, 'text': 'Hold on to my wallet here.', 'start': 15168.988, 'duration': 1.001}, {'end': 15172.692, 'text': "What's he looking for? I already stole your wallet long ago.", 'start': 15170.009, 'duration': 2.683}, {'end': 15175.534, 'text': 'I really, really appreciate you spending your valuable time with me.', 'start': 15173.112, 'duration': 2.422}, {'end': 15179.458, 'text': 'I hope we get a chance to talk many more times in the future.', 'start': 15175.554, 'duration': 3.904}, {'end': 15180.919, 'text': 'Thank you so much for sitting down.', 'start': 15179.718, 'duration': 1.201}, {'end': 15181.74, 'text': 'Thank you.', 'start': 15181.46, 'duration': 0.28}, {'end': 15185.635, 'text': 'Thanks for listening to this conversation with Robin Hanson.', 'start': 15183.373, 'duration': 2.262}, {'end': 15189.417, 'text': 'To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description.', 'start': 15186.095, 'duration': 3.322}, {'end': 15193.019, 'text': 'And now let me leave you with some words from Ray Bradbury.', 'start': 15190.077, 'duration': 2.942}, {'end': 15197.883, 'text': 'We are an impossibility in an impossible universe.', 'start': 15193.92, 'duration': 3.963}], 'summary': 'The future is shaped by competition, not by deliberate decisions; the future may lead to aggressive expansion into the cosmos.', 'duration': 139.121, 'max_score': 15058.762, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk15058762.jpg'}], 'start': 14308.477, 'title': 'Simulation argument and future entertainment', 'summary': 'Discusses the possibility of living in a simulation, analyzing the fraction of creatures experiencing reality versus a simulated experience and the rate of interest in the past versus population growth over time. it also explores the prevalence of entertainment focusing on the recent past, the purpose of fantasy and science fiction, the simulation argument, and the nature of human motivations, predicting a future where the emphasis will be on maximizing the number of descendants and expanding into the cosmos.', 'chapters': [{'end': 14553.374, 'start': 14308.477, 'title': 'Simulation argument analysis', 'summary': 'Discusses the possibility of living in a simulation, analyzing the fraction of creatures experiencing reality versus a simulated experience and the rate of interest in the past versus population growth over time.', 'duration': 244.897, 'highlights': ['The key issue is the fraction of creatures in the universe really experiencing what they appear to be, relative to those experiencing it in a simulation way, i.e. simulated.', 'The rate of interest in the past declines faster than the population grows with time, indicating lower chances of being simulated.', 'Google Ngram shows that interest in a particular year declines faster than the population grows over time, supporting the argument against a high fraction of past simulations.', 'Some category of interest in the past may not decline as fast, potentially dominating and impacting the prevalence of past simulations.']}, {'end': 15201.345, 'start': 14554.175, 'title': 'Future entertainment and simulation theory', 'summary': 'Explores the prevalence of entertainment focusing on the recent past, the purpose of fantasy and science fiction, the simulation argument, and the nature of human motivations, predicting a future where the emphasis will be on maximizing the number of descendants and expanding into the cosmos.', 'duration': 647.17, 'highlights': ['The prevalence of entertainment focusing on the recent past Movies, plays, and video games overwhelmingly focus on the recent past, with very few representations of ancient civilizations, indicating a strong interest in recent history.', 'The purpose of fantasy and science fiction Fantasy serves to remove constraints and explore essential stories, while science fiction allows for the illusion that its events could potentially happen, stimulating the imagination and posing philosophical questions about humanity.', 'The simulation argument The discussion delves into the possibility of living in a simulation, with considerations of the probability and the implications of being a part of a simulation, leading to the conclusion that the future may involve an emphasis on maximizing the number of descendants.', 'Predicting a future of expanding into the cosmos The analysis predicts a future where the primary focus is on maximizing the number of descendants, and with a non-zero probability, this may lead to an aggressive expansion into the cosmos, potentially encountering other aliens.']}], 'duration': 892.868, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/KBZP4rLk6bk/pics/KBZP4rLk6bk14308477.jpg', 'highlights': ['The rate of interest in the past declines faster than the population grows with time, indicating lower chances of being simulated.', 'The prevalence of entertainment focusing on the recent past indicates a strong interest in recent history.', 'The purpose of fantasy and science fiction stimulates the imagination and poses philosophical questions about humanity.', 'The analysis predicts a future where the primary focus is on maximizing the number of descendants and expanding into the cosmos.']}], 'highlights': ['The expansion of the universe will lead to isolated galaxy clusters in 100-150 billion years.', 'A living cosmology can help determine the existence and evolution of aliens in space-time based on the current date.', "The concept of 'grabby aliens' revolves around the idea that they aggressively interact and change the environment as they expand into the universe, making them noticeable and distinct from 'quiet' aliens.", "The distinction between 'grabby' and 'loud' aliens is clarified using a particular mathematical model, where 'loud' refers to the general concept of being obvious, while 'grabby' is a more specific technical term.", 'Earth has achieved the six hard steps in the short time of five billion years that it can support simple life, including sexual selection, photosynthesis, and multicellularity.', "On average, life's hard steps on any random planet would take trillions of years, but on Earth, they happened really fast in a short time before the window closed, with a rough estimate of six hard steps.", 'The current date of humanity may make it a random sample of when an advanced civilization might appear and start expanding, potentially within 10 million years, which is a short duration in the history of the universe.', 'Alien civilizations expanding at a constant speed will fill the universe in roughly a billion years, explaining the lack of visible advanced life.', "The model predicts that if alien civilizations were expanding slowly, our sky would be full of vast spheres, visually different from anything we see, but we don't observe them.", "The dilemma between global governance and interstellar expansion is a key choice that humanity will face, and it's a key choice other aliens have faced out there.", 'The potential consequences of limiting expansion for the sake of global governance could prevent interstellar colonization and lead to loss of control over colonies, hindering exploration and innovation.', 'Long-term civilizations will consciously prefer to have more descendants, including artificial intelligence systems and clones.', 'The possibility of advanced life on ocean worlds is discussed, emphasizing that a large fraction of planets out there are ocean worlds, and the appearance of life on such worlds could lead to the existence of advanced life due to their longevity.', "The book, 'The Elephant in the Brain', delves into hidden motives in everyday life and aims to explain the aspects that individuals are reluctant to acknowledge, emphasizing introspective taboos.", 'Consumers prioritize medicine as a means of showing care, leading to a significant emphasis on medicine in society.', "The realization of the complexity of human minds and the vast subconscious processes involved serves as the biggest 'viewquake' in artificial intelligence, challenging the simplistic assumptions and emphasizing the long road to achieving human-level artificial intelligence.", 'The economic impact of emulations is discussed, suggesting that an effective emulation enabling substitution for humans would be a huge economic product, with potential initial costs of a billion dollars each, impacting the adoption of emulations.', "The chapter emphasizes pursuing passion and not needing others' approval, highlighting significant progress over decades (e.g., switching careers at 34 with two young children).", 'The rate of interest in the past declines faster than the population grows with time, indicating lower chances of being simulated.', 'The purpose of fantasy and science fiction stimulates the imagination and poses philosophical questions about humanity.']}