title
How many alien civilizations are out there?

description
Some thoughts based on the Drake equation. Please check out our sponsors: - Brave: https://brave.com/lex - Neuro: https://www.getneuro.com and use code LEX to get 15% off OUTLINE: 0:00 - Introduction 2:22 - New stars 2:45 - Planets 3:23 - Habitable planets 4:52 - Life 6:54 - Intelligence 8:20 - Communication 9:47 - Civilization lifetime 12:35 - Civilization rebirth 13:02 - Estimated number of intelligent alien civilizations 14:44 - My view and takeaway CONNECT: - Subscribe to this YouTube channel - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LexFridmanPage - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman

detail
{'title': 'How many alien civilizations are out there?', 'heatmap': [{'end': 891.89, 'start': 869.861, 'weight': 1}], 'summary': 'Discusses the estimation of alien civilizations using the drake equation, factors influencing alien communication, probability of intelligent life, longevity of advanced civilizations, and emphasizes the importance of space exploration and a unified global effort in the search for intelligent life, estimating 940 quadrillion such civilizations in the observable universe.', 'chapters': [{'end': 44.664, 'segs': [{'end': 44.664, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 0.109, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 7.493, 'text': 'This video is about optimistic, pessimistic, and my own estimates of how many intelligent alien civilizations might be out there.', 'start': 0.109, 'duration': 7.384}, {'end': 15.838, 'text': 'I center this video around the Drake equation that combines a bunch of parameters, multiplies them together and estimates, based on that,', 'start': 8.073, 'duration': 7.765}, {'end': 21.741, 'text': 'the number of alien civilizations in our galaxy the Milky Way galaxy and the observable universe.', 'start': 15.838, 'duration': 5.903}, {'end': 28.265, 'text': 'In general, this video is probably less about the estimates themselves and more about the mysteries behind the very question.', 'start': 22.581, 'duration': 5.684}, {'end': 35.637, 'text': 'Quick thanks to our two sponsors, Brave Browser, good for your privacy, and NeuroGum, good for your brain.', 'start': 29.105, 'duration': 6.532}, {'end': 39.403, 'text': 'Check them out in the description to support the podcast I host.', 'start': 36.238, 'duration': 3.165}, {'end': 43.162, 'text': 'Okay, the Drake equation combines seven parameters.', 'start': 40.259, 'duration': 2.903}, {'end': 44.664, 'text': 'I added an eighth one here.', 'start': 43.182, 'duration': 1.482}], 'summary': 'Discussion on estimating intelligent alien civilizations using the drake equation with 7 parameters and an added 8th, sponsored by brave browser and neurogum.', 'duration': 44.555, 'max_score': 0.109, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk109.jpg'}], 'start': 0.109, 'title': 'Estimating alien civilizations', 'summary': 'Discusses the drake equation, estimating the number of alien civilizations in the milky way galaxy and the observable universe, acknowledging eight parameters involved.', 'chapters': [{'end': 44.664, 'start': 0.109, 'title': 'Estimating alien civilizations', 'summary': 'Discusses the drake equation that estimates the number of alien civilizations in the milky way galaxy and the observable universe, while exploring the mysteries behind this question and acknowledging eight parameters involved.', 'duration': 44.555, 'highlights': ['The Drake equation combines eight parameters to estimate the number of alien civilizations in our galaxy and the observable universe.', 'The video explores the mysteries behind the question of estimating the existence of intelligent alien civilizations.', 'The chapter acknowledges two sponsors, Brave Browser and NeuroGum, for supporting the podcast.', 'The video focuses less on the estimates themselves and more on the mysteries behind the question.']}], 'duration': 44.555, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk109.jpg', 'highlights': ['The Drake equation combines eight parameters to estimate the number of alien civilizations', 'The video explores the mysteries behind the question of estimating the existence of intelligent alien civilizations', 'The video focuses less on the estimates themselves and more on the mysteries behind the question', 'The chapter acknowledges two sponsors, Brave Browser and NeuroGum, for supporting the podcast']}, {'end': 391.184, 'segs': [{'end': 110.471, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 45.264, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 49.529, 'text': "I'm not using the symbols in the equation because it's too easy for people to forget what each one stands for.", 'start': 45.264, 'duration': 4.265}, {'end': 53.653, 'text': 'The variables build on each other, hence the multiplication.', 'start': 50.47, 'duration': 3.183}, {'end': 63.741, 'text': 'Okay, they are the number of new stars born per year, the percent of those stars that have planets, the number of habitable planets per star,', 'start': 54.314, 'duration': 9.427}, {'end': 67.361, 'text': 'the chance of life developing on one of those planets.', 'start': 63.741, 'duration': 3.62}, {'end': 70.982, 'text': 'then the chance of intelligent life developing and, finally,', 'start': 67.361, 'duration': 3.621}, {'end': 79.023, 'text': 'the chance of that intelligent civilization advancing far enough to develop the technology to be able to communicate, in our case,', 'start': 70.982, 'duration': 8.041}, {'end': 80.724, 'text': 'through electromagnetic signal.', 'start': 79.023, 'duration': 1.701}, {'end': 87.625, 'text': "Seventh is the lifetime of that civilization while it's in the communicating stage of its development.", 'start': 81.084, 'duration': 6.541}, {'end': 96.707, 'text': "And finally, the eighth parameter that wasn't in the original Drake equation is the average number of times that a civilization is born on a planet.", 'start': 88.345, 'duration': 8.362}, {'end': 102.509, 'text': "That is, one time it's born and it becomes completely extinct and is reborn again.", 'start': 97.587, 'duration': 4.922}, {'end': 106.41, 'text': 'This parameter makes sense since the age of a planet can be billions of years.', 'start': 102.529, 'duration': 3.881}, {'end': 110.471, 'text': 'And then you multiply it all together to get the estimated answer to our question.', 'start': 107.11, 'duration': 3.361}], 'summary': 'Factors affecting the search for extraterrestrial life in the universe are quantified and multiplied for an estimated answer.', 'duration': 65.207, 'max_score': 45.264, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk45264.jpg'}, {'end': 156.101, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 130.711, 'weight': 5, 'content': [{'end': 135.674, 'text': "I should say that the optimistic and the pessimistic estimates don't reflect the best case and the worst case.", 'start': 130.711, 'duration': 4.963}, {'end': 141.756, 'text': 'They simply reflect a reasonable estimate for a high value for these parameters and a low value for these parameters.', 'start': 136.314, 'duration': 5.442}, {'end': 144.297, 'text': 'Okay, the number of new stars born per year.', 'start': 142.396, 'duration': 1.901}, {'end': 148.578, 'text': 'The pessimistic one is 1.5 and the optimistic is three.', 'start': 144.757, 'duration': 3.821}, {'end': 149.939, 'text': 'I tend to side with a three.', 'start': 148.598, 'duration': 1.341}, {'end': 156.101, 'text': 'The 1.5 to three stars per year is the latest estimate as of about five years ago from NASA.', 'start': 150.579, 'duration': 5.522}], 'summary': "Estimates for new stars born per year range from 1.5 to 3, with a preference for 3, based on nasa's latest estimate from about five years ago.", 'duration': 25.39, 'max_score': 130.711, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk130711.jpg'}, {'end': 197.995, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 174.731, 'weight': 4, 'content': [{'end': 182.094, 'text': 'almost everyone seems to believe that now pretty much all of these star systems have planets around them.', 'start': 174.731, 'duration': 7.363}, {'end': 192.031, 'text': "Somebody's probably gonna argue for the pessimistic one being decreased to like 90% or even the previous one of like 30 or even 20%.", 'start': 182.884, 'duration': 9.147}, {'end': 193.572, 'text': "I don't think this affects it that much.", 'start': 192.031, 'duration': 1.541}, {'end': 197.995, 'text': 'The evidence seems to indicate that pretty much every star has a planet around it.', 'start': 194.032, 'duration': 3.963}], 'summary': 'Almost all star systems have planets, evidence suggests.', 'duration': 23.264, 'max_score': 174.731, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk174731.jpg'}, {'end': 251.933, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 222.25, 'weight': 6, 'content': [{'end': 224.852, 'text': "if it's all just about the range of distances from the star.", 'start': 222.25, 'duration': 2.602}, {'end': 232.515, 'text': 'The more interesting argument for me that I tend to hold is that in order for a planet to be habitable,', 'start': 225.792, 'duration': 6.723}, {'end': 239.201, 'text': "meaning support life in the broad definition of what life is, the planet doesn't necessarily need to be Earth-like.", 'start': 232.975, 'duration': 6.226}, {'end': 244.646, 'text': "There could be totally different kinds of planets that are able to support life that we're not even aware of.", 'start': 239.982, 'duration': 4.664}, {'end': 251.933, 'text': 'Those who argue for the low estimate, like the general set of ideas behind the rare Earth hypothesis that you should check out,', 'start': 245.387, 'duration': 6.546}], 'summary': "Habitable planets don't need to be earth-like; various types may support life.", 'duration': 29.683, 'max_score': 222.25, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk222250.jpg'}, {'end': 351.546, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 325.791, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 335.221, 'text': "So if there's like some good concrete evidence of life on another planet, that shows to you that the probability of life developing is quite high.", 'start': 325.791, 'duration': 9.43}, {'end': 345.825, 'text': 'So the day-to-day variability in my estimate has to do with how optimistic I am about us discovering life on the planets or moons in our solar system.', 'start': 336.263, 'duration': 9.562}, {'end': 351.546, 'text': 'Going by recent papers, the optimistic is 13%, the pessimistic is 0.1%.', 'start': 346.665, 'duration': 4.881}], 'summary': 'Probability of life developing is quite high, optimistic about discovering life at 13%, pessimistic at 0.1%.', 'duration': 25.755, 'max_score': 325.791, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk325791.jpg'}], 'start': 45.264, 'title': 'Alien communication factors', 'summary': 'Delves into factors influencing alien communication, such as new stars born per year, stars with planets, habitable planets per star, probability of life and technological advancement for communication, estimating the likelihood of intelligent civilizations.', 'chapters': [{'end': 110.471, 'start': 45.264, 'title': 'Factors affecting alien communication', 'summary': 'Discusses the factors impacting the likelihood of alien communication, including the number of new stars born per year, percentage of stars with planets, number of habitable planets per star, likelihood of life developing, likelihood of intelligent life developing, likelihood of technological advancement for communication, lifetime of a communicating civilization, and average number of civilizations born on a planet, culminating in an estimated answer.', 'duration': 65.207, 'highlights': ['The eighth parameter, the average number of times a civilization is born on a planet, was not in the original Drake equation, emphasizing the potential for civilizations to be reborn multiple times due to the age of planets, potentially spanning billions of years.', 'The variables in the equation include the number of new stars born per year, the percent of those stars with planets, the number of habitable planets per star, the chance of life developing on habitable planets, the chance of intelligent life developing, the chance of technological advancement for communication, the lifetime of a communicating civilization, and the average number of times a civilization is born on a planet, all multiplied together to estimate the likelihood of alien communication.', 'The chapter underscores the impact of variables like the number of habitable planets per star, the chance of intelligent life developing, and the chance of technological advancement for communication on estimating the likelihood of alien communication.']}, {'end': 391.184, 'start': 111.411, 'title': 'Estimates of planetary habitation', 'summary': "Discusses estimates for new stars born per year, percent of stars with planets, number of habitable planets per star, and probability of life developing on a habitable planet, with the latest estimates and the speaker's fluctuating optimism.", 'duration': 279.773, 'highlights': ['The number of new stars born per year. The pessimistic estimate is 1.5 and the optimistic is three, with a tendency to side with three based on the latest estimate from NASA. The pessimistic estimate for new stars born per year is 1.5, while the optimistic estimate is three, based on the latest estimate from NASA. The speaker tends to side with a three.', "The probability of life developing on a habitable planet. The optimistic estimate is 13% and the pessimistic is 0.1%, with the speaker's fluctuating estimate at 1% based on recent papers and optimism about discovering life on other planets or moons in our solar system. The optimistic estimate for the probability of life developing on a habitable planet is 13%, while the pessimistic estimate is 0.1%. The speaker's estimate fluctuates, with the current estimate at 1% based on recent papers and optimism about discovering life on other planets or moons in our solar system.", "The percent of stars with planets. It seems that pretty much all star systems have planets around them, with the speaker's suggestion that this evidence indicates nearly every star has a planet around it. It seems that nearly every star system has planets around them, based on the speaker's belief that the evidence indicates nearly every star has a planet around it.", 'The argument for the optimistic view of habitable planets is based on the simple range of distances from the star, while the argument for the low estimate places more constraints on habitability, as per the rare Earth hypothesis. The argument for the optimistic view of habitable planets is based on the simple range of distances from the star, while the argument for the low estimate places more constraints on habitability, as per the rare Earth hypothesis.']}], 'duration': 345.92, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk45264.jpg', 'highlights': ['The eighth parameter emphasizes potential for civilizations to be reborn multiple times due to the age of planets, potentially spanning billions of years.', 'The variables in the equation include the number of new stars born per year, the percent of those stars with planets, the number of habitable planets per star, the chance of life developing on habitable planets, the chance of intelligent life developing, the chance of technological advancement for communication, the lifetime of a communicating civilization, and the average number of times a civilization is born on a planet, all multiplied together to estimate the likelihood of alien communication.', 'The chapter underscores the impact of variables like the number of habitable planets per star, the chance of intelligent life developing, and the chance of technological advancement for communication on estimating the likelihood of alien communication.', "The optimistic estimate for the probability of life developing on a habitable planet is 13%, while the pessimistic estimate is 0.1%. The speaker's estimate fluctuates, with the current estimate at 1% based on recent papers and optimism about discovering life on other planets or moons in our solar system.", "It seems that nearly every star system has planets around them, based on the speaker's belief that the evidence indicates nearly every star has a planet around it.", 'The pessimistic estimate for new stars born per year is 1.5, while the optimistic estimate is three, based on the latest estimate from NASA. The speaker tends to side with a three.', 'The argument for the optimistic view of habitable planets is based on the simple range of distances from the star, while the argument for the low estimate places more constraints on habitability, as per the rare Earth hypothesis.']}, {'end': 587.57, 'segs': [{'end': 466.007, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 417.434, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 419.877, 'text': 'The probability of intelligent life developing.', 'start': 417.434, 'duration': 2.443}, {'end': 424.441, 'text': 'This is, of course, probably one I talk a lot about in the context of artificial intelligence.', 'start': 420.677, 'duration': 3.764}, {'end': 429.206, 'text': "Optimistic estimate I've seen is 1%, and the pessimistic one is 0.1%.", 'start': 425.042, 'duration': 4.164}, {'end': 432.168, 'text': 'I tend to actually see this as pretty high probability.', 'start': 429.206, 'duration': 2.962}, {'end': 435.371, 'text': 'In fact, I think that once life starts, intelligence is.', 'start': 432.509, 'duration': 2.862}, {'end': 439.857, 'text': "basically 100%, it's almost inevitable, if given enough time.", 'start': 436.192, 'duration': 3.665}, {'end': 447.347, 'text': 'The open question to me is how long do there have to be a range of stable conditions that support the evolution of life?', 'start': 440.358, 'duration': 6.989}, {'end': 451.052, 'text': 'And what precisely that range is once life gets going?', 'start': 448.108, 'duration': 2.944}, {'end': 456.879, 'text': 'In general, the argument for the higher value is that complexity of systems seems to increase effortlessly.', 'start': 451.994, 'duration': 4.885}, {'end': 466.007, 'text': 'And the argument for the lower value is that humans are allegedly the only intelligent species on Earth,', 'start': 457.78, 'duration': 8.227}], 'summary': 'Probability of intelligent life: optimistic 1%, pessimistic 0.1%, with high probability once life starts and evolves over time.', 'duration': 48.573, 'max_score': 417.434, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk417434.jpg'}, {'end': 587.57, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 494.68, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 498.041, 'text': "That's where I stand on the probability of intelligent life developing.", 'start': 494.68, 'duration': 3.361}, {'end': 498.821, 'text': 'There you go.', 'start': 498.441, 'duration': 0.38}, {'end': 499.361, 'text': 'Double it.', 'start': 499.001, 'duration': 0.36}, {'end': 501.948, 'text': 'Okay, ability to communicate.', 'start': 500.427, 'duration': 1.521}, {'end': 510.676, 'text': 'I kind of think of this as the percent of civilizations that become technologically advanced in the more general context of building advanced technologies.', 'start': 502.309, 'duration': 8.367}, {'end': 516.041, 'text': 'And I tend to see communication as bigger here than maybe the original Drake estimate did,', 'start': 511.076, 'duration': 4.965}, {'end': 521.125, 'text': "in that it's likely to go beyond electromagnetic communication, something that we're not even aware of currently.", 'start': 516.041, 'duration': 5.084}, {'end': 528.82, 'text': 'So the argument for the high value here is that, again, systems seem to increase in complexity effortlessly.', 'start': 522.15, 'duration': 6.67}, {'end': 537.113, 'text': 'So it seems to me that tech advancement is inevitable once you have a sufficiently intelligent civilization.', 'start': 529.481, 'duration': 7.632}, {'end': 547.827, 'text': 'The arguments that I find somewhat interesting for the more pessimistic estimate is that civilizations perhaps in time tend to isolate themselves.', 'start': 538.123, 'duration': 9.704}, {'end': 553.709, 'text': 'They perhaps lose interest in colonization or just broadly in the whole civilization.', 'start': 548.027, 'duration': 5.682}, {'end': 555.99, 'text': 'task of exploration and communication.', 'start': 553.889, 'duration': 2.101}, {'end': 565.196, 'text': 'Another idea is that possibly there is a divergent methodology to the ways that intelligent civilizations might communicate,', 'start': 556.671, 'duration': 8.525}, {'end': 568.979, 'text': 'and so there might not be intersection about them being able to communicate with each other,', 'start': 565.196, 'duration': 3.783}, {'end': 573.822, 'text': "like totally new ways of information transfer that we're just not even aware of currently.", 'start': 568.979, 'duration': 4.843}, {'end': 581.006, 'text': 'which does not involve any kind of leakage of signal that would nevertheless still be detectable.', 'start': 574.622, 'duration': 6.384}, {'end': 587.57, 'text': 'So I tend to be on the optimistic side of communication ability developing with the 20% estimate.', 'start': 581.646, 'duration': 5.924}], 'summary': 'Probability of intelligent life developing: 20% optimistic estimate for communication ability.', 'duration': 92.89, 'max_score': 494.68, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk494680.jpg'}], 'start': 391.184, 'title': 'Probability of intelligent life', 'summary': 'Discusses the probability of intelligent life developing, with estimates ranging from 0.1% to 20%. it also explores the conditions needed for the evolution of life and the potential for technological advancement and isolation among civilizations.', 'chapters': [{'end': 494.68, 'start': 391.184, 'title': 'Probability of intelligent life', 'summary': 'Discusses the probability of intelligent life developing, with optimistic estimates at 2% and pessimistic estimates at 0.1%, while also highlighting the open question of how long stable conditions are needed to support the evolution of life and the argument for the inevitability of intelligence once life starts.', 'duration': 103.496, 'highlights': ['The probability of intelligent life developing has optimistic estimates at 2% and pessimistic estimates at 0.1%, with the suggestion that intelligence is almost inevitable once life starts.', 'The open question revolves around how long stable conditions are needed to support the evolution of life, and the argument for the complexity of systems increasing effortlessly.']}, {'end': 587.57, 'start': 494.68, 'title': 'Probability of intelligent life', 'summary': 'Discusses the probability of intelligent life developing, estimating a 20% chance of civilizations becoming technologically advanced due to the inevitable tech advancement once a sufficiently intelligent civilization exists, but acknowledges the possibility of civilizations isolating themselves and the potential for totally new ways of information transfer.', 'duration': 92.89, 'highlights': ['The argument for the high value here is that systems seem to increase in complexity effortlessly, leading to inevitable tech advancement once a sufficiently intelligent civilization exists.', 'The chapter acknowledges the possibility of civilizations isolating themselves and losing interest in colonization or exploration, leading to a more pessimistic estimate of the probability of intelligent life developing.', "There's a belief that communication might go beyond electromagnetic communication, potentially involving totally new ways of information transfer that we're not even aware of currently.", 'The chapter estimates a 20% chance of civilizations becoming technologically advanced, taking into account the potential for divergent methodologies in the ways that intelligent civilizations might communicate.']}], 'duration': 196.386, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk391184.jpg', 'highlights': ['The probability of intelligent life developing ranges from 0.1% to 20%', 'Optimistic estimates for intelligent life at 2%, pessimistic at 0.1%', 'Stable conditions needed for evolution of life is an open question', 'Systems seem to increase in complexity effortlessly', 'Civilizations isolating themselves leads to pessimistic estimates', 'Estimates a 20% chance of civilizations becoming technologically advanced', 'Belief in communication beyond electromagnetic methods']}, {'end': 891.89, 'segs': [{'end': 621.936, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 588.09, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 595.295, 'text': "Next is the lifetime of the civilization once it's already in that communicating advanced technology stage.", 'start': 588.09, 'duration': 7.205}, {'end': 602.559, 'text': 'I think this is one of the more interesting, one of the more open parameters that basically changes the game in the final estimate.', 'start': 595.655, 'duration': 6.904}, {'end': 605.39, 'text': 'This is where the most variability comes from.', 'start': 603.109, 'duration': 2.281}, {'end': 610.052, 'text': 'The previous parameters I find inspiring as a scientist and engineer.', 'start': 605.41, 'duration': 4.642}, {'end': 621.936, 'text': 'This parameter I find inspiring as a human, because the higher we can get it up as a human civilization, the more likely it is that we make extensive,', 'start': 610.072, 'duration': 11.864}], 'summary': 'The lifetime of a civilization in advanced technology stage is a key parameter, impacting final estimates and inspiring human advancement.', 'duration': 33.846, 'max_score': 588.09, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk588090.jpg'}, {'end': 762.119, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 728.543, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 735.248, 'text': "Now what that looks like 10, 000 years from now, it's like impossible for me to even imagine.", 'start': 728.543, 'duration': 6.705}, {'end': 739.311, 'text': "So I'm uncomfortable with an estimate of one billion years from now.", 'start': 735.288, 'duration': 4.023}, {'end': 748.377, 'text': "So that's why I put my optimistic but not too optimistic estimate of a lifetime of advanced technological civilization at 10, 000 years.", 'start': 739.711, 'duration': 8.666}, {'end': 750.659, 'text': "We're 100 years in, 9, 900 years to go to prove me wrong.", 'start': 748.417, 'duration': 2.242}, {'end': 762.119, 'text': 'And finally, this extra parameter of the number of times a civilization is born on a planet.', 'start': 755.376, 'duration': 6.743}], 'summary': 'Optimistic estimate: 10,000 years for advanced civilization, 1 billion years uncomfortable, 100 years in, 9,900 years to prove wrong.', 'duration': 33.576, 'max_score': 728.543, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk728543.jpg'}, {'end': 869.104, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 836.399, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 846.725, 'text': "So, if we look at the number of alien communicating civilizations in the universe, it's 940 quadrillion, which is 1,", 'start': 836.399, 'duration': 10.326}, {'end': 849.187, 'text': '000 trillion for the optimistic estimate.', 'start': 846.725, 'duration': 2.462}, {'end': 860.156, 'text': "It's 300, 000 for the pessimistic estimate and 1.4 trillion for my estimate as of this hour today.", 'start': 849.967, 'duration': 10.189}, {'end': 869.104, 'text': "Obviously, there's quite a bit of variability and I find it quite entertaining that my estimate landed on very close to one.", 'start': 861.297, 'duration': 7.807}], 'summary': 'There are an estimated 940 quadrillion alien communicating civilizations in the universe.', 'duration': 32.705, 'max_score': 836.399, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk836399.jpg'}, {'end': 899.495, 'src': 'heatmap', 'start': 869.861, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 874.71, 'text': "Which aligns well with the idea that if we're pretty average and the Milky Way is pretty average,", 'start': 869.861, 'duration': 4.849}, {'end': 880.299, 'text': 'that we just may be the only ones in the Milky Way galaxy.', 'start': 874.71, 'duration': 5.589}, {'end': 882.123, 'text': "But every galaxy's got one.", 'start': 880.84, 'duration': 1.283}, {'end': 887.406, 'text': "There's a bunch of takeaways I have from this quick thought experiment.", 'start': 884.224, 'duration': 3.182}, {'end': 891.89, 'text': 'And the reason I made the video is I wanted to go through the thought experiment,', 'start': 887.847, 'duration': 4.043}, {'end': 899.495, 'text': 'provide my estimates and also reason through the very question itself and some of the open questions around the estimate.', 'start': 891.89, 'duration': 7.605}], 'summary': 'The milky way may have only one galaxy, with open questions around the estimate.', 'duration': 29.634, 'max_score': 869.861, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk869861.jpg'}], 'start': 588.09, 'title': 'The longevity and survival of advanced civilizations', 'summary': 'Delves into the potential variability of advanced civilization lifetimes and the estimated survival of technological civilization at 10,000 years, also exploring the likelihood of making contact with other intelligent alien civilizations and an optimistic estimate of 940 quadrillion such civilizations in the observable universe.', 'chapters': [{'end': 635.727, 'start': 588.09, 'title': 'Lifetime of advanced civilization', 'summary': 'Discusses the variability and potential impact of the lifetime of a civilization in the advanced technology stage on the likelihood of making contact with other intelligent alien civilizations.', 'duration': 47.637, 'highlights': ['The lifetime of a civilization in the advanced technology stage is highlighted as a crucial parameter with significant variability, impacting the final estimate.', 'The potential impact of a longer civilization lifetime on the likelihood of making extensive, deep, meaningful contact with other intelligent alien civilizations is emphasized.', 'The optimistic values for the lifetime of a civilization in the advanced technology stage are noted to be very high and range widely, with the potential to significantly increase the likelihood of contact with other intelligent alien civilizations.']}, {'end': 891.89, 'start': 635.727, 'title': 'Survival of technological civilization', 'summary': 'Discusses the potential immortality of technological civilization, estimating its survival at 10,000 years and the potential number of intelligent alien civilizations in the observable universe, with an optimistic estimate of 940 quadrillion.', 'duration': 256.163, 'highlights': ["The estimate of intelligent alien civilizations capable of communicating in the universe is 940 quadrillion for the optimistic scenario, 1.4 trillion for the speaker's estimate, and 300,000 for the pessimistic scenario. The potential number of intelligent alien civilizations in the observable universe is estimated, revealing a wide range of possibilities with the optimistic scenario reaching 940 quadrillion and the pessimistic scenario at 300,000.", "The speaker's optimistic estimate places the potential survival of advanced technological civilization at 10,000 years, with the current human civilization being in its first 100-150 years of technological development. The potential lifespan of advanced technological civilization is estimated at 10,000 years, with the current phase being in its early stages, providing a perspective on the timeline and potential longevity of technological advancement.", "The forces of good are expected to out-innovate the forces of evil, leading to the speaker's overall optimistic outlook on the survival and advancement of human civilization. The speaker's optimism about the survival and advancement of human civilization is grounded in the belief that the forces of good will out-innovate the forces of evil, contributing to a positive outlook on civilization's future."]}], 'duration': 303.8, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk588090.jpg', 'highlights': ['The estimate of intelligent alien civilizations in the universe ranges from 300,000 to 940 quadrillion.', 'The potential impact of a longer civilization lifetime on making contact with other intelligent alien civilizations is emphasized.', 'The potential survival of advanced technological civilization is estimated at 10,000 years.']}, {'end': 1302.73, 'segs': [{'end': 964.037, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 910.868, 'weight': 2, 'content': [{'end': 922.375, 'text': "But the sense I have in terms of the very concept of communication is that we don't yet have the tools of science to understand what it means to communicate with alien intelligence.", 'start': 910.868, 'duration': 11.507}, {'end': 929.98, 'text': 'I tend to believe that aliens are very unlikely to have the humanoid form.', 'start': 922.455, 'duration': 7.525}, {'end': 938.145, 'text': 'that much more likely, the variety of life is greater than we imagine and greater than we can imagine.', 'start': 929.98, 'duration': 8.165}, {'end': 947.289, 'text': 'Some of the variability would perhaps invalidate entirely the very structure of the Drake equation itself,', 'start': 939.847, 'duration': 7.442}, {'end': 949.67, 'text': 'which makes a lot of cosmological assumptions.', 'start': 947.289, 'duration': 2.381}, {'end': 956.852, 'text': 'Life could exist in different dimensions, whatever the heck that would even mean for a physics perspective.', 'start': 950.75, 'duration': 6.102}, {'end': 964.037, 'text': 'As Carl Sagan talked about, it could exist on very different time scales and very different spatial scales,', 'start': 957.532, 'duration': 6.505}], 'summary': 'Challenges in understanding alien communication and life diversity beyond human imagination.', 'duration': 53.169, 'max_score': 910.868, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk910868.jpg'}, {'end': 1061.26, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1035.074, 'weight': 0, 'content': [{'end': 1051.339, 'text': 'then you have to think that understanding our mind may unlock some totally new ways of communication and unlock our understanding of what it means to be an intelligent civilization that will totally transform the estimates provided by the Drake Equation.', 'start': 1035.074, 'duration': 16.265}, {'end': 1061.26, 'text': "And that's why I think it's really inspiring to scientists, engineers, just curious minds, that the pursuits, maybe in my field of AI,", 'start': 1052.011, 'duration': 9.249}], 'summary': 'Understanding our mind may transform the estimates in the drake equation, inspiring scientists and engineers in the field of ai.', 'duration': 26.186, 'max_score': 1035.074, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk1035074.jpg'}, {'end': 1184.48, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1153.527, 'weight': 3, 'content': [{'end': 1164.415, 'text': 'So I hope that governments, nation states, will be able to look at the search for intelligent life not as a threat,', 'start': 1153.527, 'duration': 10.888}, {'end': 1169.137, 'text': 'not as something that you keep as a secret, but as something that can inspire us.', 'start': 1164.415, 'duration': 4.722}, {'end': 1173.618, 'text': "I think we're humans first and Americans second.", 'start': 1170.057, 'duration': 3.561}, {'end': 1176.238, 'text': "We're curious descendants of apes.", 'start': 1174.258, 'duration': 1.98}, {'end': 1184.48, 'text': 'And I think the idea of threats and secrecy, I hope will become an outdated concept.', 'start': 1176.778, 'duration': 7.702}], 'summary': 'Advocate for open approach to search for intelligent life.', 'duration': 30.953, 'max_score': 1153.527, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk1153527.jpg'}, {'end': 1253.071, 'src': 'embed', 'start': 1222.406, 'weight': 1, 'content': [{'end': 1228.113, 'text': 'It mostly has to do about at least my thinking on how much evil there is in the world.', 'start': 1222.406, 'duration': 5.707}, {'end': 1237.463, 'text': "And right now, for a time at least, I'm quite optimistic about the fundamental good in human nature.", 'start': 1229.034, 'duration': 8.429}, {'end': 1246.789, 'text': 'And finally, of course, in terms of increasing the lifetime of human civilization, but in general, finding intelligent life out there.', 'start': 1238.567, 'duration': 8.222}, {'end': 1251.271, 'text': 'I think space exploration is really exciting.', 'start': 1246.789, 'duration': 4.482}, {'end': 1253.071, 'text': 'Generally this whole topic.', 'start': 1251.911, 'duration': 1.16}], 'summary': 'The speaker is optimistic about human nature and excited about space exploration.', 'duration': 30.665, 'max_score': 1222.406, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk1222406.jpg'}], 'start': 891.89, 'title': 'Alien communication and future prospects', 'summary': 'Explores the potential variability in alien life forms and dimensions, as well as the impact of artificial general intelligence on our understanding of intelligent civilizations. it also emphasizes the importance of space exploration and a unified global effort in the search for intelligent life.', 'chapters': [{'end': 964.037, 'start': 891.89, 'title': 'Alien communication: current view', 'summary': 'Explores the idea that alien intelligent civilizations may exist, but communicating with them may be beyond our current scientific understanding due to the potential variability in life forms and dimensions.', 'duration': 72.147, 'highlights': ['The variety of life is greater than we imagine and greater than we can imagine, making it very unlikely for aliens to have humanoid form.', 'Life could exist in different dimensions, potentially invalidating the structure of the Drake equation and posing challenges to our current cosmological assumptions.', 'Communicating with alien intelligence is beyond our current scientific tools, and the concept of communication with them is not fully understood.']}, {'end': 1302.73, 'start': 964.037, 'title': 'Future of communication and intelligent life', 'summary': 'Discusses the potential for different forms of intelligent communication and the impact of artificial general intelligence on our understanding of intelligent civilizations, also highlighting the importance of space exploration and the pursuit of a unified global effort in the search for intelligent life.', 'duration': 338.693, 'highlights': ['The pursuit of artificial general intelligence holds the key to understanding other intelligent civilizations, potentially transforming the estimates provided by the Drake Equation. The development of artificial general intelligence could lead to a transformation in our understanding of intelligent civilizations, impacting the estimates provided by the Drake Equation.', 'Space exploration is crucial for increasing the lifetime of human civilization and finding intelligent life, making it an exciting and important endeavor. Space exploration is highlighted as an exciting and important endeavor that is crucial for increasing the lifetime of human civilization and finding intelligent life.', 'The search for intelligent life should inspire a unified global effort, transcending the concept of threats and secrecy, and should be pursued as a means to inspire humanity. The chapter emphasizes the need for a unified global effort in the search for intelligent life, advocating for the transcendence of threats and secrecy and viewing it as an inspiring pursuit for humanity.']}], 'duration': 410.84, 'thumbnail': 'https://coursnap.oss-ap-southeast-1.aliyuncs.com/video-capture/JTmxA2MvEqk/pics/JTmxA2MvEqk891890.jpg', 'highlights': ['The pursuit of artificial general intelligence holds the key to understanding other intelligent civilizations, potentially transforming the estimates provided by the Drake Equation.', 'Space exploration is crucial for increasing the lifetime of human civilization and finding intelligent life, making it an exciting and important endeavor.', 'The variety of life is greater than we imagine and greater than we can imagine, making it very unlikely for aliens to have humanoid form.', 'The search for intelligent life should inspire a unified global effort, transcending the concept of threats and secrecy, and should be pursued as a means to inspire humanity.', 'Life could exist in different dimensions, potentially invalidating the structure of the Drake equation and posing challenges to our current cosmological assumptions.', 'Communicating with alien intelligence is beyond our current scientific tools, and the concept of communication with them is not fully understood.', 'The development of artificial general intelligence could lead to a transformation in our understanding of intelligent civilizations, impacting the estimates provided by the Drake Equation.']}], 'highlights': ['The Drake equation combines eight parameters to estimate the number of alien civilizations', 'The estimate of intelligent alien civilizations in the universe ranges from 300,000 to 940 quadrillion', 'Space exploration is crucial for increasing the lifetime of human civilization and finding intelligent life', 'The pursuit of artificial general intelligence holds the key to understanding other intelligent civilizations', 'The probability of intelligent life developing ranges from 0.1% to 20%', 'The potential impact of a longer civilization lifetime on making contact with other intelligent alien civilizations is emphasized', 'The video explores the mysteries behind the question of estimating the existence of intelligent alien civilizations', 'The potential survival of advanced technological civilization is estimated at 10,000 years', 'The variety of life is greater than we imagine and greater than we can imagine, making it very unlikely for aliens to have humanoid form', 'The chapter underscores the impact of variables like the number of habitable planets per star, the chance of intelligent life developing, and the chance of technological advancement for communication on estimating the likelihood of alien communication']}